Tropical Storm ( Guchol ) 12w at WPAC

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:55 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192121Z AUG 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.1N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.7N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.2N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.9N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 150.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST
OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
192121Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192130)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Another cyclone for the WPAC.

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:08 pm

Action picking up out there..

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/2025 UTC 22.0N 151.3E T1.5/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean
19/2025 UTC 20.9N 142.3E T3.0/3.0 MAWAR -- West Pacific Ocean
19/1745 UTC 13.3N 96.0W T2.0/2.0 08E -- East Pacific Ocean
19/1202 UTC 21.3N 151.8E T1.5/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean
19/1202 UTC 20.6N 142.8E T3.0/3.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean

Coredesat · #3 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:40 pm

Could be a double-whammy for Japan in the next few days.

#4 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 4:30 am

No JMA upgrade yet.

20/0825 UTC 23.3N 150.2E T1.5/1.5 12W -- West Pacific Ocean

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:44 am

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.5N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.5N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.8N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.3N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.7N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 149.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:54 am

It seems MAWAR and TD 12W will both affect Japan almost at the same time. Will that be considered a double knockout? I think so!!!

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 3:25 pm

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 004
WTPN32 PGTW 202100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 149.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 149.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.7N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.0N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.7N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.7N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.4N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 149.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

TD 12W continues to struggle behind the shadow of MAWAR which seems to be causing shear to the system. According to Dvorak, 12W has enough organization to be classified as a tropical storm (T2.5), but the JTWC must be waiting six more hours be sure before doing an upgrade.

superfly · #8 Postby **superfly** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 3:32 pm

Woah kinda close together, isn't it? Fujiwhara effect soon?

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 3:38 pm

superfly wrote:Woah kinda close together, isn't it? Fujiwhara effect soon?

Yes, they are really close, but up to now the Fujiwara Effect doesn't seem to be taking place since both systems are moving around 300 degrees. Maybe their small size is helping them not to interact.

#10 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 3:55 pm

My gosh im glad I dont live in the WPAC.

<RICKY>

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:41 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.1N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.7N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 28.2N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.3N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 31.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.9N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 37.2N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 148.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF IWO
JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

Here is newly formed Tropical Storm 12w.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 11:16 pm

TS 12W (Future "Guchol") continues to get better organized even that its big brother "MAWAR" is inhibiting significant development because of some wind shear that is being produced over the system. Iwo Jima seems to be very lucky right now, MAWAR will pass a hundred miles to its west and GUCHOL will pass a few hundred miles to its east. Only finge effects will be felt in the island. Accoding to the latest track, JAPAN seems to be in good shape regarding the future track of GUCHOL.

#13 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 5:24 am

Upgraded to a TS at 6am GMT:

JMA Track

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0512 GUCHOL (0512) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 25.0N 148.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 28.2N 146.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 230600UTC 31.5N 144.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 240600UTC 35.9N 145.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 10:49 am

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 27.0N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.4N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 32.4N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 35.4N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 40.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 147.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

NNNN

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 3:47 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 26.2N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 28.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.7N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 33.8N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 37.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.4N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 147.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z
AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #16 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 9:10 pm

21/2025 UTC 26.2N 147.1E T3.5/3.5 GUCHOL -- West Pacific Ocean

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 10:05 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.5N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 32.3N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 35.2N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.6N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 44.8N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 146.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #18 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 11:25 pm

Its now a TYPHOON!!!

22/0225 UTC 27.4N 147.1E T4.0/4.0 GUCHOL -- West Pacific Ocean

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #19 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:02 am

The official advisory has Severe Tropical Storm Guchol at 70 mph.

WTPQ21 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 27.5N 147.1E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 32.5N 145.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 240000UTC 37.2N 149.7E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 250000UTC 43.4N 160.2E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =

#20 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:48 am

The forecasts have been increased taking this to 60kts in 24 hours:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0512 GUCHOL (0512)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 28.2N 146.9E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 32.4N 146.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 240600UTC 37.6N 153.2E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 250600UTC 42.1N 162.3E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT

Tropical Storm ( Guchol ) 12w at WPAC

Tropical Storm ( Guchol ) 12w at WPAC

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