East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

Scorpion · #201 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:30 am

SAL doesnt look too bad. Shouldnt break the wave apart at least. I agree this wave is beautiful. Looks to form into a nice healthy tropical cyclone, although I dont want to jinx it as Irene formed from a very healthy wave as well.

wxwatcher91 · #202 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:51 am

webke wrote:Question,
When I look at the picturs of the system, is it possible that two systems could form at around 30 to 40 degrees and the other at 20 degrees.

well there is two waves if that is what your talking about... QS shows two circulations... I didnt bother posting the QS obs because they are from yesterday though...

we have a wave south of 10N and between 30 and 40W and the "monster" north of 10N and around 20W

#203 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 10:05 am

Nice loop of the strong African wave moving off the coast. Has a fairly good circulation already :eek:

. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_data/sat_pages/java_thumbs/40_20050820.1200.msg1.ir.x.sahara

Frank2 · #204 Postby **Frank2** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 10:07 am

Aside from the impressive wave off the African coast, there's nothing else ahead of it at this time (including the old TD10 convection), and, nothing behind it:

click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG to view.

Frank

#205 Postby **webke** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 10:09 am

Thanks for the info wxwatcher91

Tropicswatcher · #206 Postby **Tropicswatcher** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 10:14 am

Frank2 wrote:Aside from the impressive wave off the African coast, there's nothing else ahead of it at this time (including the old TD10 convection), and, nothing behind it:

click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG to view.

Frank

Thats too sad

Lets hope that the African continent start getting those nice thunderstorms complex for things to heat up here 8-)

Steve H. · #207 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 10:34 am

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Starting to fire up.

Derecho · #208 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 11:34 am

Oh, there's plenty behind it, including a rotating wave just leaving Nigeria.

It just hasn't had much convection the last 6 hours or so but is refiring some now.

Remember that a wave isn't convection, though waves usually induce convection.

Derecho · #209 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 11:36 am

TC Genesis parameters skyrocketing:

Derecho · #210 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:09 pm

Dakar now reporting 1008 mb....

#211 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:14 pm

that is the best wave coming off Africa in 2005....

WindRunner · #212 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:15 pm

Here we go!

#213 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:21 pm

Here we go!

I would have to agree on that...this is about the time Jeanne/Frances got going last year.

#214 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:22 pm

This is the wave we need to start watching and start getting over the remnants of TD10.

<RICKY>

#215 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:24 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Here we go!

I would have to agree on that...this is about the time Jeanne/Frances got going last year.

Wrong about formation of Jeanne at this time last year.
:darrow:

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004jeanne.shtml

#216 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:31 pm

Yes Luis, Jeanne did form later but what I meant was this is the time things got going last year with Jeanne/Frances...

HurricaneGirl · #217 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:38 pm

boca_chris wrote:that is the best wave coming off Africa in 2005....

That thing scares me! :eek:

Holy Crap itsa biggun. :eek:

#218 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:39 pm

HurricaneGirl wrote:
boca_chris wrote:that is the best wave coming off Africa in 2005....
That thing scares me! Holy Crap itsa biggun.

ah the famous holy crap phrase has returned lol

<RICKY>

#219 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:46 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.8N 18.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2005 13.8N 18.6W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2005 15.6N 24.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2005 13.8N 27.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2005 15.5N 30.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2005 15.5N 32.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2005 16.3N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2005 16.4N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2005 16.4N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2005 16.4N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2005 17.2N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2005 17.2N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2005 17.3N 48.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

The above is the 12z UKMET run for this wave.

#220 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.8N 18.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2005 13.8N 18.6W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2005 15.6N 24.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2005 13.8N 27.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2005 15.5N 30.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2005 15.5N 32.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2005 16.3N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2005 16.4N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2005 16.4N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2005 16.4N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2005 17.2N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2005 17.2N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2005 17.3N 48.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

The above is the 12z UKMET run for this wave.

Do you have any other model runs for this wave Luis?

<RICKY>

East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

Who is online