East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[x-y-no]

7-day of the 12Z Euro is finally out:



Recurving it out to sea. Following wave moving very far south.

Something interesting in the southern Bahamas.

EDIT - never mind the Bahamas - that's just the trough axis.

[cycloneye]

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE PRESENT N
OF 9N TO 17N E OF 20W FROM THE NEXT WAVE OVER W AFRICA.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE SPLIT THAN YESTERDAY ON
WHETHER THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP IN THE E ATLC...W ATLC.. OR EVEN
AT ALL.

The above remarks from the 8 PM Discussion from TPC.Looks like some division from the models for this wave.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

Another great view of Africa and what is on the pipe.

This image updates every 15 minutes.

[bigmike]

Isn't the euro a piece of junk sort of like the A98 of global models?

[gkrangers]

Isn't the euro a piece of junk sort of like the A98 of global models?

Not exactly.

[cycloneye]

Still the wave axis has not emerged West Africa and because it has not gone out completly we have to wait until all the wave gets out and see by then how it evolves in terms of refirering convection over water and forming a LLC.But it still early in the ballgame so the waiting game continues.

[ConvergenceZone]

that IS one of the best waves I've seen so far this year moving off the Africa coast as far as definition and overall convection is concerned. Something HAS to explode soon. It wouldn't make sense otherwise.

[WeatherEmperor]

that IS one of the best waves I've seen so far this year moving off the Africa coast as far as definition and overall convection is concerned. Something HAS to explode soon. It wouldn't make sense otherwise.

true. i dont see the SAL impacting it right away. It doesnt appear to be near the African coast.

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

GFS has gone back to being bullish on the system. This evening's 00Z run at 144 hours:

[gkrangers]

Thats a big ridge....

I hope we get something soon, regardless of how strong it gets or where it goes.

[clfenwi]

Whew... just reminded myself why I don't look at the GFS past 180 hours (h336 in this loop)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gkrangers]

I'm guessing it shows a handful of TCs?

[clfenwi]

I'm guessing it shows a handful of TCs?

Nope... it goes from this:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324s.gif

to this:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336s.gif

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UKMET 00Z guidance ... lacks the enthusiasm of the GFS:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 14.7N 18.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2005 14.7N 18.6W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2005 15.6N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2005 13.6N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2005 15.5N 29.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2005 15.5N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2005 16.3N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2005 16.5N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2005 16.5N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2005 16.4N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[gkrangers]

Double barrel hurricanes?

[clfenwi]

And so it begins... 0205 TWD

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 15W S OF 23N MOVING W 5-10
KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N15W. BAMAKO UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING SHOW DEFINITE WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE DAKAR UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING SHOWS AN IMMINENTLY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
LARGE CLOUD AREA WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

[gkrangers]

Looks like we were all wrong about which wave was gonna be Jose....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big flare up of convection near 15 north/18 west. Banding to the south looks very good. I think this is on its way to becomeing a tropical cyclone. Maybe even a hit on the Cape verdes.

[superfly]

Big flare up of convection near 15 north/18 west. Banding to the south looks very good. I think this is on its way to becomeing a tropical cyclone. Maybe even a hit on the Cape verdes.

Let's see if it can hold up in the next few satellite pics. Looking at the water vapor image though, it looks like it won't have to deal with the SAL at least for the next day or so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

True is looks very favable for development. Expect that if it can get going fast it could be a threat to the cape verdes. The nhc will take it much more serious if so.


Here is 1995 storms we have to beat.


10 Hurricane IRIS 22 AUG-04 SEP 95 965 2
11 Tropical Storm JERRY 22-25 AUG 35 1003 -
12 Tropical Storm KAREN 26 AUG-03 SEP 45 1000 -
13 Hurricane LUIS 28 AUG-11 SEP 120 936 4

3 storms have to form before the months out.


Here is the rest of the 1995 season. If we can get 3 more storms this month. Then we got to the 12th before 1995 can answer back.

15 Hurricane MARILYN 12-22 SEP 100 949 3
16 Hurricane NOEL 27 SEP-07 OCT 65 987 1
17 Hurricane OPAL 27 SEP-05 OCT 130 916 4
18 Tropical Storm PABLO 05-07 OCT 50 998 -
19 Hurricane ROXANNE 07-20 OCT 100 958 3
20 Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN 20-24 OCT 35 1004 -
21 Hurricane TANYA 27 OCT-02 NOV 75 974 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is the 1933...

Cat
1 Tropical Storm #1 14-19 MAY 40 - -
2 Hurricane #2 27 JUN- 7 JUL 90 986 2
3 Tropical Storm #3 14-20 JUL 45 - -
4 Tropical Storm #4 21-27 JUL 40 - -
5 Hurricane #5 25 JUL- 5 AUG 80 981 1
6 Tropical Storm #6 12-20 AUG 50 - -
7 Tropical Storm #7 16-21 AUG 35 - -
8 Hurricane #8 17-26 AUG 105 971 3
9 Tropical Storm #9 24-31 AUG 45 - -
10 Tropical Storm #10 26-29 AUG 35 - -
11 Hurricane #11 28 AUG- 5 SEP 110 - 3
12 Hurricane #12 31 AUG- 7 SEP 120 948 4
13 Hurricane #13 8-21 SEP 105 957 3
14 Hurricane #14 10-15 SEP 75 960 1
15 Hurricane #15 16-25 SEP 95 962 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 27-30 SEP 40 - -
17 Tropical Storm #17 28-30 SEP 35 - -
18 Hurricane #18 1- 9 OCT 130 971 4
19 Hurricane #19 25 OCT- 7 NOV 85 - 2
20 Tropical Storm #20 26-30 OCT 60 - -
21 Tropical Storm #21 15-17 NOV 35 - -


Black is all the storms we have passed so far.