East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

#141 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:24 am

Well Jason I was reading an article from NBC6 news which is a south florida local news station that the SAL is a bit more frequent which is a bit unusual for this time of year and that it should abate in about 7-10 days or so.

<RICKY>

#142 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:26 am

jason0509 wrote:Thanks, Ricky. I was just wondering though what the current state of the SAL is. Is the SAL layer right now less than usual, denser than usual, etc?

I dont have those archives about the past years and the sal but I know that someone will post it.

wxwatcher91 · #143 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:56 am

it looks like SAL continues high in coverage but strength-wise has decreased notably in the past week...

#144 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:04 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:it looks like SAL continues high in coverage but strength-wise has decreased notably in the past week...

Yeah. Im gonna continue to watch the SAL on that website every day to see if a SAL weakening pattern is starting to take shape. If that is the case, then the Cape Verde season can get underway at last.

<RICKY>

#145 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 12:38 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS loop at 384 hours.

Dont look.

#146 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 12:44 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 15.7N 20.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2005 15.7N 20.3W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2005 15.5N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2005 14.8N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2005 14.0N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2005 15.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2005 15.7N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2005 16.7N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2005 18.2N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2005 18.3N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2005 19.3N 46.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET

WindRunner · #147 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 12:54 pm

Well, 986mb is awfully bad since the models can't make the pressure calls. I'm surprised that that monster is still there from 24 hours ago, and it still takes it north of the islands, and seems to be headed on a potentially threatening track for the eastern US. The model looks to be sure of the forecast for now.

#148 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:02 pm

WindRunner wrote:Well, 986mb is awfully bad since the models can't make the pressure calls. I'm surprised that that monster is still there from 24 hours ago, and it still takes it north of the islands, and seems to be headed on a potentially threatening track for the eastern US. The model looks to be sure of the forecast for now.

Yes interesting about showing a strong hurricane in some past runs and now on this one.Now let's see in the next 00z and 12z runs what they show by 384 hours on the 5th labor day.

#149 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:21 pm

If anyone has the 12z NOGAPS,CMC you can post those runs here please.

wxwatcher91 · #150 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:38 pm

cycloneye, do you think we should have an official thread for the GFS long range model? I know it has very little chance of being currect this far out and with this crazy forecast, but since this has become a fairly hot topic I was thinking that it might be nice... it would get rid of the extra topics made about it too... also I think this thread should be kept mainly for this current system just departing Africa...

just a few thoughts :wink:

#151 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:45 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:cycloneye, do you think we should have an official thread for the GFS long range model? I know it has very little chance of being currect this far out and with this crazy forecast, but since this has become a fairly hot topic I was thinking that it might be nice... it would get rid of the extra topics made about it too... also I think this thread should be kept mainly for this current system just departing Africa...

just a few thoughts

No we can have a models thread about all the models and not only one.

This thread was made for wave now emerging and for future waves in the next few weeks.

#152 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:19 pm

Since this mornings image ar 12:00 UTC convection has increased but let's see what happens when the wave axis hits the water later tonight going into tommorow morning.

#153 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:

Since this mornings image ar 12:00 UTC convection has increased but let's see what happens when the wave axis hits the water later tonight going into tommorow morning.

wow Luis it looks like you were right about this wave. Im sorry I doubted you when I said the convection died down. I see you posted the 12Z UKMET models runs. Do you have any more models that I can look at?

<RICKY>

cinlfla · #154 Postby **cinlfla** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:22 pm

Oh Goody, something to possibly track

#155 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:47 pm

cinlfla wrote:Oh Goody, something to possibly track

Not so fast.

First it has to have a LLC,Convection persisting,Enviromental conditions ideal.If it gets all the above then we will see an invest go up by tommorow and we can start to track but until the wave axis exits Africa we wont know if it will organize or no so the waiting game starts for this wave.

#156 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Oh Goody, something to possibly track

Not so fast. First it has to have a LLC,Convection persisting,Enviromental conditions ideal.If it gets all the above then we will see an invest go up by tommorow and we can start to track but until the wave axis exits Africa we wont know if it will organize or no so the waiting game starts for this wave.

Sure lets go for it. We've been playing that game before with formed TD10(although some still are).

<RICKY>

#157 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:01 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Oh Goody, something to possibly track

Not so fast. First it has to have a LLC,Convection persisting,Enviromental conditions ideal.If it gets all the above then we will see an invest go up by tommorow and we can start to track but until the wave axis exits Africa we wont know if it will organize or no so the waiting game starts for this wave.

Sure lets go for it. We've been playing that game before with formed TD10(although some still are).

<RICKY>

But I think this will be a real player.

#158 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Oh Goody, something to possibly track

Not so fast. First it has to have a LLC,Convection persisting,Enviromental conditions ideal.If it gets all the above then we will see an invest go up by tommorow and we can start to track but until the wave axis exits Africa we wont know if it will organize or no so the waiting game starts for this wave.

Sure lets go for it. We've been playing that game before with formed TD10(although some still are).

<RICKY>

As do I. Im just curious because I can clearly see the big amounts of dry air way ahead of this wave. Dunno if the wave is gonna go too fast and run right into the dry air or if the dry air will just go away.

<RICKY>

But I think this will be a real player.

x-y-no · #159 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:29 pm

Thought I'd cross-post these images in this thread, since they show the wave just now coming off Africa progessing west under a monster ridge ...

(12Z European, SLP and 500mb heights - from the Plymouth State site)

3 days:

4 days:

5 days:

#160 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 19, 2005 3:35 pm

cyclone when do you think the rest of the wave will move off of africa?

East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

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