2/3 of CV storms that hit US not even formed by 8/20

[LarryWx]

Here is a breakdown of the 38 1900-2004 CV storms** that hit the U.S. based on dates of initial FORMATION:

Period: # FORMED:
JUNE 0
JULY 1-10: 1
JULY 11-20: 1
JULY 21-31: 1
AUG. 1-10: 4
AUG. 11-20: 6
AUG. 21-31: 9
SEP. 1-10: 11
SEP. 11-20: 3
SEP. 21-30: 2 (both formed on 9/21, the latest for any that later hit the U.S.)
OCT., NOV. 0

- So, the season up through 8/20 has had a total of 13 U.S. hitting CV storms FORM (i.e., not the date of U.S. hit) by then. The total for the entire season is 38.

- This means that only ~1/3 of the U.S. hitting CV storms since 1900 had even formed by 8/20. So, we've got a long way to go.

- Note that 20 of the 39 first formed during 8/21-9/10. So, that is the real meat of the U.S. threatening CV storm FORMATION season. A few of the 9/1-9/10 storms didn't hit the U.S. until just after 9/20.

- 2003 had one CV storm hit the U.S.: Isabel, which first became a TD on 9/6

- 2004 had two CV storms hit the U.S.: Frances first became a TD on 8/25 and Ivan first became a TD on 9/2

- Since 1996 alone, 9 CV storms hit the US or about one/year!

**My def. of CV storm:
tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N and EXCLUDING the unnamed storm of 1988

[Recurve]

Excellent, eye-opening stats. Thanks for posting that.

[LarryWx]

Excellent, eye-opening stats. Thanks for posting that.

You're welcome! Since you enjoyed them, here's some more:

1) Exact dates of FORMATION (TD+) for these 38 from 1900-2004:

7/5, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/16, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21, 8/23, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21

Date with most: 9/10 with FOUR

So, in terms of FORMATION of U.S. hitting CV storms, it shows that things really start to pick up ~8/16 and stay that way until 9/11 after a 9/10 climax.

2) Since 1851, years with most:

THREE: 1893, 1955, 1979
TWO: 1964, 1996, 1998, 2004

[HURAKAN]

To get happy we need something with the track of Irene and the intensity of Ivan. Perfect match!!! No harm to land, and we get weeks of entertainment.

[dwg71]

The window seems relatively small, about 3 weeks.

[Stephanie]

It peaks at around "peak hurricane season" time. Makes sense to me.

Thanks for the stats!

[Andrew92]

The window seems relatively small, about 3 weeks.

And last year at this time all there was was Danielle, which was dying out (Earl had already died out). Finally, one week later, Frances developed, and two more followed in August alone, with one more in September (Ivan) before the 10th.

In 2003, there was NOTHING on this day. I repeat, no depressions or storms or ANYTHING on this day in 2003, and then in September came Fabian and Isabel. However, we were only two days away from the absolutely pathetic TD #9 near Hispaniola.

I'm sorry if I don't come across as very nice, but these people who keep saying that this season has peaked or is over seem to be either complacent or overly pessimistic (or optimistic). I kinda want to explain a what-if scenario for those people, but it might risk me looking like a total jerk.

All I will say is is that we are currently in a lull. And that patience is a virtue.

-Andrew92