East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

artist · #81 Postby **artist** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:11 pm

have fun Lynn!

caribepr · #82 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:24 pm

Have a fabulous trip HQ! Buy a fresh vanilla bean at the market and a glass of wine on Grand Case for me!
And please please try to stay away from computers or televisions, you know if something is coming in, you'll be made aware of it VERY quickly. Enjoy!

#83 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:33 pm

caribepr wrote:Have a fabulous trip HQ! Buy a fresh vanilla bean at the market and a glass of wine on Grand Case for me!
And please please try to stay away from computers or televisions, you know if something is coming in, you'll be made aware of it VERY quickly. Enjoy!

Does this mean you aren't going to be joining us??? You are still invited if it works in your schedule. I'll IM you when I get a chance-hopefully tomorrow.

About staying away from computers and TV-yeah right!!!!! :lol:

Lynn

P.S. Artist: thanks. I've been meaning to tell you how much I've enjoyed your posts but it's been a little crazy around here trying to get ready.
L

artist · #84 Postby **artist** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:39 pm

well thank you very much. I can totally understand - wish I was joining you! Have a glass for me too! I will be looking your way each morning imagining how that sunrise must look there!

caribepr · #85 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:42 pm

I'd love to...but things are getting a little crazy here - if I can I'll be there (thinking of how to convince friends into taking a little boat ride, hmmm... cheap wine, good food....hmmm

)

#86 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:27 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z GFS loop at 384 hours shows a hurricane but moving north away from the islands distint from yesterday which this same model had a strong hurricane near Puerto Rico.Let's see in next runs 12z and 00z how GFS projects this.

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:00 am

Wave that will emerge West Africa that some global models are jumping on will emerge late tonight going into tommorow morning.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:00 am

cycloneye wrote:SAT imagery

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:19 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
:uarrow:

12z GFS loop at 384 hours shows a series of lows in the tropical atlantic but anything real strong.Let's continue to watch future runs from this and other models.

gkrangers · #90 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:35 pm

Cycloneeye...don't give any credit to the 384 hour GFS.

You know people here that don't know any better will read into it too much. Its not even worth discussing on a storm to storm basis. Long term pattern is fine...but mentioning individual storms that it shows in its fantasy land of 384 hours isn't worth it..

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:39 pm

gkrangers wrote:Cycloneeye...don't give any credit to the 384 hour GFS.

You know people here that don't know any better will read into it too much. Its not even worth discussing on a storm to storm basis. Long term pattern is fine...but mentioning individual storms that it shows in its fantasy land of 384 hours isn't worth it..

Yes I know that looking at a very long range is like looking for neddles.However what I look for is trends and if other models join.

gkrangers · #92 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Cycloneeye...don't give any credit to the 384 hour GFS.

You know people here that don't know any better will read into it too much. Its not even worth discussing on a storm to storm basis. Long term pattern is fine...but mentioning individual storms that it shows in its fantasy land of 384 hours isn't worth it..

Yes I know that looking at a very long range is like looking for neddles.However what I look for is trends and if other models join.

384 hours puts us in SEptember doesnt it? Of course its gonna show a TC or two!

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:44 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 13.8N 17.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2005 13.8N 17.0W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2005 15.3N 19.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2005 15.7N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2005 16.4N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2005 16.7N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2005 17.8N 30.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2005 18.7N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2005 20.5N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET.

#94 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:48 pm

cycloneye wrote: NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 13.8N 17.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2005 13.8N 17.0W WEAK

12UTC 21.08.2005 15.3N 19.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2005 15.7N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2005 16.4N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2005 16.7N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2005 17.8N 30.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2005 18.7N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2005 20.5N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET.

If the UKMET verifies looks like it will be a fish?

<RICKY>

#95 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:51 pm

If this model solution at this run verifies it will not affect the lesser antilles islands.

#96 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:25 pm

Here is the biggie wave poised to emerge in a few hours.And look inside Africa what is in the pipe.But of course after they emerge they have to get good enviromental conditions to then organize otherwise poof.

#97 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:27 pm

The one about to emerge off Africa in a few hours looks like a monster. I am very curious as to what its gonna do once it hits the Atlantic.

<RICKY>

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:The one about to emerge off Africa in a few hours looks like a monster. I am very curious as to what its gonna do once it hits the Atlantic.

<RICKY>

That will be the key when it hits the water.Convection will decrease some as soon it hits water but if it refires again then that will be a good sign that wave has a good future.

wxmann_91 · #99 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:47 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:The one about to emerge off Africa in a few hours looks like a monster. I am very curious as to what its gonna do once it hits the Atlantic.

<RICKY>

Probably die in SAL b/c of its high latitude.

#100 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:The one about to emerge off Africa in a few hours looks like a monster. I am very curious as to what its gonna do once it hits the Atlantic.

<RICKY>

That will be the key when it hits the water.Convection will decrease some as soon it hits water but if it refires again then that will be a good sign that wave has a good future.

Do you think this one will be the one that will officially start the real Atlantic activity? Example: In 1998 Bonnie formed on Aug20th and that one started the activity for the remainder of the season.

<RICKY>

East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

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