Where are JB's Video Updates??
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- jasons2k
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Here is something VERY interesting he put in today's column. Maybe this will clarify for some who jump on his case. It speaks for itself:
"The other common misconception is that this is a forecast column. It's not. It's a discussion of various factors that have to do with the patterns and forecasts are made to demonstrate where I think the pattern will go when I want to make a strong point."
"The other common misconception is that this is a forecast column. It's not. It's a discussion of various factors that have to do with the patterns and forecasts are made to demonstrate where I think the pattern will go when I want to make a strong point."
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http://www.yahoo.com
Today's video was one of the better ones I've seen in a while. The idea of 2 gulf systems, 10/Jose and then a long tracker coming off Africa Saturday with 1 or 2 frontrunning waves means things are about to heat up again.
What I got from today's video was that I have to think a little more critically at times. I said on Tuesday night that 10 was 48 hours out from anything happening. And I also said look for the upper level low in the Gulf to move off SW with some wave energy in the Bret/Gert/Emily region but I didn't see the Western Caribbean "theory" as the second Gulf entity also with potential.
Essentially, we could have another 4 named storms in the next 7 days* (note: I'm not calling for that, but the potential is there). We'll see.
Steve
Today's video was one of the better ones I've seen in a while. The idea of 2 gulf systems, 10/Jose and then a long tracker coming off Africa Saturday with 1 or 2 frontrunning waves means things are about to heat up again.
What I got from today's video was that I have to think a little more critically at times. I said on Tuesday night that 10 was 48 hours out from anything happening. And I also said look for the upper level low in the Gulf to move off SW with some wave energy in the Bret/Gert/Emily region but I didn't see the Western Caribbean "theory" as the second Gulf entity also with potential.
Essentially, we could have another 4 named storms in the next 7 days* (note: I'm not calling for that, but the potential is there). We'll see.
Steve
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Steve wrote:www.yahoo.com
Today's video was one of the better ones I've seen in a while. The idea of 2 gulf systems, 10/Jose and then a long tracker coming off Africa Saturday with 1 or 2 frontrunning waves means things are about to heat up again.
What I got from today's video was that I have to think a little more critically at times. I said on Tuesday night that 10 was 48 hours out from anything happening. And I also said look for the upper level low in the Gulf to move off SW with some wave energy in the Bret/Gert/Emily region but I didn't see the Western Caribbean "theory" as the second Gulf entity also with potential.
Essentially, we could have another 4 named storms in the next 7 days* (note: I'm not calling for that, but the potential is there). We'll see.
Steve
For whatever reason, the Africa waves seem to be really fizzling out quickly. I think we need to get them over waters for 72 hours before we start hyping them.
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>>For whatever reason, the Africa waves seem to be really fizzling out quickly. I think we need to get them over waters for 72 hours before we start hyping them.
I'm not hyping African waves, I'm talking about 1 that he thinks will be brought up into the Western Gulf behind the retreating upper low and the one that's in the Caribbean. Each of those waves has been in the basin for over 2 weeks (> 72 hours anyway). The big dog wave doesn't come off until Saturday. I'm hardly hyping that one by saying we could have 4 named systems within a 7 day period. Personally, I think 2 is more logical. 10 will almost assuredly be named, and the Western Caribbean situation looks primed for development once the other ULL gets out of the way. I don't have an opinion on the stuff coming in from the Pacific in the Western Gulf or the one 2 waves back on the African Continent.
Steve
I'm not hyping African waves, I'm talking about 1 that he thinks will be brought up into the Western Gulf behind the retreating upper low and the one that's in the Caribbean. Each of those waves has been in the basin for over 2 weeks (> 72 hours anyway). The big dog wave doesn't come off until Saturday. I'm hardly hyping that one by saying we could have 4 named systems within a 7 day period. Personally, I think 2 is more logical. 10 will almost assuredly be named, and the Western Caribbean situation looks primed for development once the other ULL gets out of the way. I don't have an opinion on the stuff coming in from the Pacific in the Western Gulf or the one 2 waves back on the African Continent.
Steve
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Steve wrote:>>For whatever reason, the Africa waves seem to be really fizzling out quickly. I think we need to get them over waters for 72 hours before we start hyping them.
I'm not hyping African waves, I'm talking about 1 that he thinks will be brought up into the Western Gulf behind the retreating upper low and the one that's in the Caribbean. Each of those waves has been in the basin for over 2 weeks (> 72 hours anyway). The big dog wave doesn't come off until Saturday. I'm hardly hyping that one by saying we could have 4 named systems within a 7 day period. Personally, I think 2 is more logical. 10 will almost assuredly be named, and the Western Caribbean situation looks primed for development once the other ULL gets out of the way. I don't have an opinion on the stuff coming in from the Pacific in the Western Gulf or the one 2 waves back on the African Continent.
Steve
Steve, didnt mean you specifically. You didnt hype it. It was directed at JB and anybody else who has posted the following "..monster wave coming off the coast of Africa.."or .."the African Wave train is firing up" in the past month.
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- jasons2k
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Hey Steve:
I think you're right on target. If I were to post an outlook today it would echo what you stated in your 2 posts. It looks like an interesting period ahead, even for the GOM.
JB stated in his written column that the match is about to be lit in the tropics...and I think he's right with that.
I think you're right on target. If I were to post an outlook today it would echo what you stated in your 2 posts. It looks like an interesting period ahead, even for the GOM.
JB stated in his written column that the match is about to be lit in the tropics...and I think he's right with that.
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jschlitz wrote:Hey Steve:
I think you're right on target. If I were to post an outlook today it would echo what you stated in your 2 posts. It looks like an interesting period ahead, even for the GOM.
JB stated in his written column that the match is about to be lit in the tropics...and I think he's right with that.
JB is the hype master. "the match is about to be lit", "7 named storms from 8/20 - 9/20" - It makes the videos fun to watch though. Right now we have 9 with 10 on life support, and the NHC doesnt see any development soon.
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No problem dwg. I didn't take any offense, I just wanted to make sure I clarified what I was trying to say (what happens when you're trying to cut a couple of deals and type storm stuff at the same time).
Anyway, the point JB was making was that the ocean air is sufficientially moistening up now and that with the change in the pattern (e.g. +NAO), things will be different for this particular pulse than they were for the last one and the intermittant stuff (Harvey & Irene). He even said there was a possibility 10/Jose could become trapped under all that high pressure. We'll have to see on that one too.
Steve
Anyway, the point JB was making was that the ocean air is sufficientially moistening up now and that with the change in the pattern (e.g. +NAO), things will be different for this particular pulse than they were for the last one and the intermittant stuff (Harvey & Irene). He even said there was a possibility 10/Jose could become trapped under all that high pressure. We'll have to see on that one too.
Steve
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- jasons2k
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dwg71 wrote:jschlitz wrote:Hey Steve:
I think you're right on target. If I were to post an outlook today it would echo what you stated in your 2 posts. It looks like an interesting period ahead, even for the GOM.
JB stated in his written column that the match is about to be lit in the tropics...and I think he's right with that.
JB is the hype master. "the match is about to be lit", "7 named storms from 8/20 - 9/20" - It makes the videos fun to watch though. Right now we have 9 with 10 on life support, and the NHC doesnt see any development soon.
Well those 10 so far by early August didn't turn out to be a bunch of hype, now did it?
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jschlitz wrote:dwg71 wrote:jschlitz wrote:Hey Steve:
I think you're right on target. If I were to post an outlook today it would echo what you stated in your 2 posts. It looks like an interesting period ahead, even for the GOM.
JB stated in his written column that the match is about to be lit in the tropics...and I think he's right with that.
JB is the hype master. "the match is about to be lit", "7 named storms from 8/20 - 9/20" - It makes the videos fun to watch though. Right now we have 9 with 10 on life support, and the NHC doesnt see any development soon.
Well those 10 so far by early August didn't turn out to be a bunch of hype, now did it?
We are at 9 named storms and the last time I checked August 18th was in the second half of August not the "early" part.
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- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive

- Posts: 8250
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- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
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dwg71 wrote:jschlitz wrote:dwg71 wrote:jschlitz wrote:Hey Steve:
I think you're right on target. If I were to post an outlook today it would echo what you stated in your 2 posts. It looks like an interesting period ahead, even for the GOM.
JB stated in his written column that the match is about to be lit in the tropics...and I think he's right with that.
JB is the hype master. "the match is about to be lit", "7 named storms from 8/20 - 9/20" - It makes the videos fun to watch though. Right now we have 9 with 10 on life support, and the NHC doesnt see any development soon.
Well those 10 so far by early August didn't turn out to be a bunch of hype, now did it?
We are at 9 named storms and the last time I checked August 18th was in the second half of August not the "early" part.
Last time I checked TD#10 was the T-E-N-T-H cyclone of the season in the Atlantic basin. I know how to count pal.
And the first advisory on that was issued in the "first half" of August.
Whatever, you know. The intent of my post was to make a point. If you can't get that and get past the nit-picking, then so be it.
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