Former TD-10, Florida and the Shortwave

[wxman57]

Thought y'all might like to see some data. Here are some images from the 18Z GFS run. I plotted 1mb surface pressure projections for 10pm tonight and 1pm Monday. Then I plotted the mean 700-400 mb flow for the same times.

03Z Thursday 1mb surface pressure fcst:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose18.gif

18Z Monday 1mb surface pressure fcst:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose19.gif

03Z Thursday 700-400mb mean flow:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose20.gif

18Z Monday 700-400mb mean flow:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose21.gif

I think that we can at least trust that the GFS at least knows what's happening near the start of the run. As you can see, the current high pressure center is well northeast of TD 10's remnants. Mean lower, mid, and upper-level flow is from the ESE - thus the current WNW motion. Nothing really to push it westward. As for the 18Z Monday projection, that's a fairly sharp trof down the east U.S. coast as the system approaches. Too soon to tell if a turn would occur before or after Florida, though. Could be a Frances-type track, could be Floyd-type. Can't even rule out a quicker turn and track off the east coast. Of course, it has to develop first.

[artist]

wxman57 - the links aren't working for me - saying not found.

[jrod]

If the GFS is over developing the storm in the Pacific we may see Jose close to Florida. Ive seen computers overdevelop a low in one area and under develop another low somewhere else. Here is the ECMWF, it shows the trough slower and not quite as strong.

[jrod]

I guess that model just updated. Its previous run showed the trough a little better. You can see what might be someting off of Florida on day 5 and 6. This is just a computer model, NOT a forecast.

[aprilflower]

according to the diameter of the eye we were in the southern eyewall!

The center of the storm hit Port St. Lucie

I can attest to that...

[aprilflower]

If this would have hit at full intensity we would still be rebuilding now.

Not at all to contradict your statement about being lucky, I DO agree to that, but we ARE still rebuilding in St Lucie County - you can still drive down most any road and see at least 2 blue roofs (still!!!), and drive US1 from Port St Lucie thru Fort Pierce and see all of the businesses with closed and/or condemned signs - it's very sad...

The only consolation I see in it is that those that were fortunate enough to get the repairs done can now say they're up to code, so that if we do get whammied again this year there may not be quite as much damage...But of course that's all wishful thinking

[Foladar]

I'm just curious, if TD10/Jose might come to Florida, what day would this be?

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution, including storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Furthermore, do not take any actions after reading this unofficial forecast unless instructed to do so by the NHC. My take is this;

After further review, it appears as though the trough coming off the east coast will weaken the ridge enough to cause TD 10 to slow down considerably, or completely stall north of Haiti. By that time TD 10 should be a minimal hurricane drifting northwestward or completely stalled out. A strong, powerful ridge will then develop over the top of the system and drive the system westward as rapid intensification ensues. I am basing this forecast upon the current GFS 00Z.

It is too early to give a landfall forecast. The ridge is building in from both the east and west and this would usually call for a Florida landfall. However, how the weakness in the ridging, created by the trough on Monday and Tuesday of next week effects the forward speed of TD 10 is just too tough to call at this hour. But that forward speed, and whether or not TD 10 completely stalls out will be extremely critical factors and cannot really be forecasted with a high degree of accuracy. Personally, I see no chance whatsoever of recurvature in response to the weakness, even if the forward speed of TD 10 is maintained at whatever it is at that time, presumably something between 12 and 15 mph. The more uneffected TD 10's forward motion in response to the weakness, the farther north it will landfall, and the weaker it will be, IMO. The more TD 10 slows down in response to the weakness in the ridge, the farther south it will landfall and the stronger it will ultimately be. The forward speed of TD 10 will also determine whether or not it will make it into the GOM.

TD 10 will not begin to slow down until at least day 3, and perhaps not until day 4. Since TD 10 doesn't figure to be a very strong system at the time it begins to slow, there is a strong possibility of a complete stall. A stall by TD 10 north of Haiti would carry with it the most extreme consequences for the Florida east coast.

Any possibility of dissipation is non-existent this hour. TD 10 will very likely be upgraded today to Jose.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression 10 will be upgraded when pigs fly into me as I'm walking down the street. Not going to happen...

[elysium]

What ??? I don't think that we will be looking at anything extremely powerful very soon, but you can't serious. This thing looks great! (from the perspective of further strengthening). This isn't a forecast so hopefully I can get by without posting a disclaimer trying to shake you to your senses, but this system looks great on the satellite imagery, FWIW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its looked better thats all that needs to be said.

[storm4u]

Tropical depression 10 will be upgraded when pigs fly into me as I'm walking down the street. Not going to happen...

well you better start walking because the pigs are flying!!!

[Nimbus]

You can see the shear over 10 is lessening in the water vapor imagery.

The weakness left by Irene has cut off and is moving north of 30N.

There is a ULL to the south of Irene as well so high pressure will be building in north of the islands.

[weatherwoman]

do you think it will come back

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Tropical depression 10 will be upgraded when pigs fly into me as I'm walking
down the street. Not going to happen...

[Eyes2theSkies]

lmao