Is it

[wxwonder12]

accurate to say that most of the time when the models are indicating a storm to go in a certain direction about a week out that they normally change to a completely different land fall area 2 to 3 days out? Not to ask a silly question, but the model plotter for td 10, or soon to be, looks to be a Florida or close to Florida landfall and it seems that you can count on 2 days from now the models going somewhere completely different.

[weatherwoman]

they always more north of what the models say dont know why

[Recurve]

For sure the models often show that general track toward Florida before they pick up some other feature that changes things. Strengthening ridge and the track shifts south, weakness or EC trough and the curve northward starts to show up.

Florida sees itself aimed at by the early 5-day cone a lot.

[wxwonder12]

This is why with the possible td 10 being so far out I am almost sure it will be going else where. Usually how it works

[Blown Away]

The best place to be is at the end of the 5 day track. Your
almost assured that the landfall will not be there.

[rockyman]

they always more north of what the models say dont know why

If you mean that the system always ends up more north than what the models say, I'd remind people about Charley...it ended up well south of where the models said, even a day out (instead of Tampa) or 4 days out (northern Gulf Coast). When a system is approaching the East Coast of the US (or the west coast of Florida for that matter), it is very difficult to forecast landfall because even a slight change in direction can mean a huge landfall difference.

[Blown Away]

Frances & Jeanne landfalled S of the Models if I recall correctly!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I had to put my two cents in. There is a truth to the models changing drastically after 3-5 days. When the models point to S fl 5 days out It's almost a given it will not hit. This holds true with possible TD 10. The hurricane models show a more west movement but most of us know if a trough that is suppose to bring a front to North Fl is coming. There ain't a chance. The globals, I think, pretty much show this trough early next week. But it could be a good sign for opening up the Atlantic with more moisture. I think by next week the games will begin.

[superfly]

they always more north of what the models say dont know why

Dennis. Emily.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Frances & Jeanne landfalled S of the Models if I recall correctly!

Sure were..Said Melbourne area hrs before landfall..

[artist]

It is impossible to say where the models might be that far out for certain. Yes - they could end up hundreds of miles away, but then again they could end up very close to where they started out. You just never know.

[NastyCat4]

Basically, the early model runs are essentially useless ,unless it is in a confined area, such as the Northern Gulf, which is essentially a cul-de-sac, model divergence on a weak storm, or one with no clear steering influence only serve to scare the people who live in the area they happen to point. I remember the early model runs of Jeanne making a right angle 90 degree turn into the Daytona area, which was an extremely low confidence forecast that had almost no chance verifying.