Hurricane Hilary at EPAC

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cycloneye
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Hurricane Hilary at EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:58 pm

Image

Invests keep poping up at EPAC continuing with the rally of systems as a wet MJO is in that basin.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:51 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2005 2:07 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 0600 050818 1800 050819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.2N 89.3W 9.4N 90.5W 9.8N 91.8W 10.5N 93.5W
BAMM 9.2N 89.3W 9.6N 90.1W 10.2N 91.4W 11.2N 93.2W
LBAR 9.2N 89.3W 9.5N 90.8W 9.9N 92.8W 10.7N 95.5W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800 050822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 95.5W 13.9N 100.1W 16.3N 104.4W 18.8N 108.0W
BAMM 12.5N 95.6W 15.0N 101.6W 17.1N 107.9W 18.4N 114.2W
LBAR 12.0N 98.8W 14.8N 106.1W 15.2N 110.4W 17.3N 114.4W
SHIP 60KTS 71KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 74KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 89.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 17, 2005 2:19 pm

EPAC! :grrr:
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 17, 2005 2:35 pm

potent comes to mind, especially that far south.
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Wed Aug 17, 2005 2:49 pm

Here comes Hilary :eek:
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#6 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:39 pm

Looks like the E-Pac doesn't want us to run away with the title. We'll still win, but maybe it won't be by so much, after all. Since we're definitely going to win the title, it doesn't even matter. :)
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#7 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:41 pm

Boo the EPAC sucks. Can't even generate anything worthy but a weak Cat 1 and weak TS's.
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#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:55 pm

Scorpion wrote:Boo the EPAC sucks. Can't even generate anything worthy but a weak Cat 1 and weak TS's.


In years where the Atlantic is inactive the EPAC can produce monster storms that can threaten the Mexican coast (or don't you remember 1997)?
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#9 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:57 pm

Yes 97 was a huge exception due to the monster El Nino.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2005 8:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050818 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050818 0000 050818 1200 050819 0000 050819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 90.2W 10.0N 91.6W 10.5N 93.3W 11.4N 95.3W
BAMM 9.8N 90.2W 10.2N 91.5W 11.0N 93.2W 12.0N 95.7W
LBAR 9.8N 90.2W 10.1N 92.0W 10.8N 94.5W 12.0N 97.5W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050820 0000 050821 0000 050822 0000 050823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 97.6W 15.4N 103.2W 18.3N 108.9W 21.1N 114.3W
BAMM 13.2N 98.8W 16.0N 106.5W 17.3N 115.3W 16.1N 122.5W
LBAR 13.4N 101.1W 15.8N 108.5W 15.8N 114.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 64KTS 74KTS 72KTS 69KTS
DSHP 64KTS 74KTS 72KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 90.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 88.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 8.9N LONM24 = 86.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:25 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050819 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050819 0000 050819 1200 050820 0000 050820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 92.5W 12.4N 94.1W 13.2N 95.9W 14.3N 98.1W
BAMM 11.7N 92.5W 12.4N 94.6W 13.1N 97.1W 13.9N 100.0W
LBAR 11.7N 92.5W 12.4N 94.9W 13.5N 97.7W 14.9N 100.8W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050821 0000 050822 0000 050823 0000 050824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 100.2W 17.5N 104.3W 19.8N 107.7W 22.3N 110.7W
BAMM 14.7N 102.9W 16.3N 108.6W 17.8N 112.8W 19.2N 115.3W
LBAR 16.3N 103.9W 18.9N 109.9W 19.1N 112.3W 20.0N 115.6W
SHIP 66KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS
DSHP 66KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 92.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 90.7W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 88.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#12 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:29 pm

1006 and 25kts, shouldn't be too long until TD8E shows up.
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#13 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:44 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050819 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050819 0000 050819 1200 050820 0000 050820 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.7N 92.5W 12.4N 94.1W 13.2N 95.9W 14.3N 98.1W

BAMM 11.7N 92.5W 12.4N 94.6W 13.1N 97.1W 13.9N 100.0W

LBAR 11.7N 92.5W 12.4N 94.9W 13.5N 97.7W 14.9N 100.8W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050821 0000 050822 0000 050823 0000 050824 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 15.3N 100.2W 17.5N 104.3W 19.8N 107.7W 22.3N 110.7W

BAMM 14.7N 102.9W 16.3N 108.6W 17.8N 112.8W 19.2N 115.3W

LBAR 16.3N 103.9W 18.9N 109.9W 19.1N 112.3W 20.0N 115.6W

SHIP 66KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS

DSHP 66KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 92.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 90.7W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 88.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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#14 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:50 pm

Scorpion wrote:Boo the EPAC sucks. Can't even generate anything worthy but a weak Cat 1 and weak TS's.


:grr: :grr: :grr:

and it takes away a good storm in the Atlantic.
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#15 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Aug 19, 2005 7:54 am

Brent wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Boo the EPAC sucks. Can't even generate anything worthy but a weak Cat 1 and weak TS's.


:grr: :grr: :grr:

and it takes away a good storm in the Atlantic.

Wait, I thought an active Atlantic meant less storms for the EPAC, but if the EPAC was active, why would it take away from the Atlantic? Isn't it like the Atlantic has the potential for all of those waves, but if it doesn't want it, the EPAC can take it? Sorry, little confused.... :?:
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#16 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:12 am

19/1145 UTC 12.4N 94.7W T2.0/2.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

Seems that TAFB placed the center (at 1210N, 9440W) further away from the convection than SSD did, thereby holding down the system's number. No worries... only a matter of time before an upgrade occurs.
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#17 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:14 am

none of these past invests have really developed but it looks as though this one could make a run for it.

<RICKY>
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#18 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:18 am

TCFA issued this morning

WTPN21 PHNC 191330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191321Z AUG 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 94.5W TO 13.7N 98.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191145Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 94.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.6N 94.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201330Z.//
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:20 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050819 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050819 1200 050820 0000 050820 1200 050821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 94.9W 13.4N 96.9W 14.5N 99.1W 15.6N 101.4W
BAMM 12.6N 94.9W 13.7N 97.3W 14.7N 100.2W 15.7N 103.1W
LBAR 12.6N 94.9W 13.3N 97.4W 14.6N 100.3W 15.9N 103.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050821 1200 050822 1200 050823 1200 050824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 103.6W 18.9N 107.5W 21.2N 110.8W 23.9N 114.6W
BAMM 16.6N 106.1W 17.8N 111.7W 18.4N 115.5W 19.1N 116.3W
LBAR 17.2N 106.4W 19.4N 112.2W 19.6N 114.5W 21.2N 116.6W
SHIP 66KTS 75KTS 74KTS 72KTS
DSHP 66KTS 75KTS 74KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 94.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 92.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 90.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:21 am

Image
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