Former TD-10, Florida and the Shortwave

[WeatherEmperor]

Lets not ignore the "ridge expected to build back westward across the FL peninsula monday-wednesday".

If the system is NE of the Bahamas by Sunday-Monday...and the ridge builds back westward...then...?

I know. its in the back of my mind. Im just wondering how fast thing thing will move. If it moves fast enough then the weakening of the ridge could allow a more north movement, but if it moves slow then the ridge could build back in allowing a more W track as you said. Perhaps this should be in the front of my mind....

<RICKY>

[fci]

Lets not ignore the "ridge expected to build back westward across the FL peninsula monday-wednesday".

If the system is NE of the Bahamas by Sunday-Monday...and the ridge builds back westward...then...?

It still remains away from Florida by waiting for a trough to pick it up.
Oh, there are historical cases where a system has taken a hard left and gone under the ridge right into Florida but it is the rare exception.
Generally, they turn before the Bahamas and head up north and generally northeast. Sometimes we get protected and then the NC area gets sideswiped.
But a direct left turn?
Unususal and extremely doubtful...

Off the exact subject a little; sea surface temps have now hit 90 off of SE Florida; a virtual timber-box for a storm to explode. We down here need to hope that systems get shunted off because if one comes cruising this way, it is gonna explode. These high sea surface temps are fueling the hot days and nights we are getting here and Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out so when one gets nearby..... watch out......!!!!

[gatorcane]

The beach water on the Atlantic side is what it should be in the GOM....it's like bath water.... if TD 10 takes the southern track into S. Florida and the FL straits watch out. It is going to get ugly.

Also do not assume a N turn because "that is what they always do." You are basing that off a period of time where the Bermuda ridge was not as strong...now it appears to be stronger and more E-W aligned (like last year).

[MiamiensisWx]

On the visible floater below, EX-TD 10 appears to be moving on a bit more west-northwestward direction.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

It's getting very interesting to watch, that's for sure. There's also some activity coming off Africa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[WeatherEmperor]

The beach water on the Atlantic side is what it should be in the GOM....it's like bath water.... if TD 10 takes the southern track into S. Florida and the FL straits watch out. It is going to get ugly.

Also do not assume a N turn because "that is what they always do." You are basing that off a period of time where the Bermuda ridge was not as strong...now it appears to be stronger and more E-W aligned (like last year).

Yes my Master. I will do as you request.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

On the visible floater below, EX-TD 10 appears to be moving on a bit more west-northwestward direction.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

It's getting very interesting to watch, that's for sure. There's also some activity coming off Africa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

nope, you can see the low sw of the little blob and is still pretty much west

[fci]

The beach water on the Atlantic side is what it should be in the GOM....it's like bath water.... if TD 10 takes the southern track into S. Florida and the FL straits watch out. It is going to get ugly.

Also do not assume a N turn because "that is what they always do." You are basing that off a period of time where the Bermuda ridge was not as strong...now it appears to be stronger and more E-W aligned (like last year).

Irene ended up following the "that is what they always do" track.
Odds are, this one will too.
Ands most all that follow it.

Having said that; odds are not always right; exhibit Francis and Jeanne.....

[WeatherEmperor]

Ivanhater maybe correct. I can also see a West movement, perhaps a very very very small North component but not very much.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater maybe correct. I can also see a West movement, perhaps a very very very small North component but not very much.

<RICKY>

ya, ever so much north of west...and its already going south of the models...that really bothers me

[gatorcane]

It's been since 1992 since S. Florida has been hit and before that 1976 or so??? It's basically about 15 years apart so that puts 2005 at another hit for S. Florida in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

and I'm talking major hurricanes here NOT the CAT 1s or CAT2s

[gkrangers]

and I'm talking major hurricanes here NOT the CAT 1s or CAT2s

Jeanne was a major hurricane, and Frances was borderline.

[gatorcane]

Jeanne and Frances did not hit S. Florida. S Florida is Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe.

[New Englander]

It's been since 1992 since S. Florida has been hit and before that 1976 or so??? It's basically about 15 years apart so that puts 2005 at another hit for S. Florida in my opinion.

Well that would put it at a 16 year difference and puts 2008 in the next hit year. Sorry to get all exact

[gatorcane]

yeah, you may be right....I would say the next 5 years could be an interesting time for S. Florida...if not this year

[jdray]

yeah, you may be right....I would say the next 5 years could be an interesting time for S. Florida...if not this year

Dont go by timetables, Mother Nature doesn't care about time tables.

[artist]

boca_chris - Jeanne and Frances DID hit Palm Beach county - we in north Palm Beach got to ride the southern eyewall of both!

[fci]

It's been since 1992 since S. Florida has been hit and before that 1976 or so??? It's basically about 15 years apart so that puts 2005 at another hit for S. Florida in my opinion.

Is Palm Beach County in South Florida??

We live in Palm Beach County and had Hurricane Force winds sustained for many hours twice three weeks apart last September!!

Oh, oops I forgot; you live in Boca which is in its own world apart from anywhere but Boca!!!!

[WeatherEmperor]

and I'm talking major hurricanes here NOT the CAT 1s or CAT2s

In that case before Andrew in 1992, the last time South Florida was struck by a major hurricane was Betsy in 1965. 27 years later hurricane Andrew came by in 1992. 1979's hurricane David did not count because it wasnt a major hurricane when it pretty much skirted its way across almost the entire FL east coast.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Is Palm Beach County in South Florida??

We live in Palm Beach County and had Hurricane Force winds sustained for many hours twice three weeks apart last September!!

Oh, oops I forgot; you live in Boca which is in its own world apart from anywhere but Boca!!!!

Technically the Jeanne and Frances made landfall in Port St. Lucie and Martin counties so you were not in the eyewall in north Palm Beach.