EPAC Warm Anamolies

[Frank2]

Re: DoctorHurricane2003's post

I'll certainly take your word on that, though I must admit when I first viewed the Eastern Pacific warm water pooling last week, my first thought was a return of El Nino conditions.

Frank

[Jim Hughes]

I'm not saying a strong el nino or anything like that. It is just that this basically eliminates any chance of a la nina anytime soon it appears

I would not be to sure about that Derek. The warming trend that you have noticed is basically being brought on by the positive SOI trend during the prior few weeks.

The SST's during an EL Nino never peak, like in 97' or early 90's until the negative SOI trend actually weakens, there by bringing up the warmer waters below. The quick turn around in surface temperatures back in May never occurred until after the strong negative SOI trend in mid March subsided.

So you are just seeing the lag time effect. Speaking of lag time..

take a look at what's below in the EPAC.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... xzteq.html


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Re: DoctorHurricane2003's post

I'll certainly take your word on that, though I must admit when I first viewed the Eastern Pacific warm water pooling last week, my first thought was a return of El Nino conditions.

Frank

I recall reading someones comments years ago in reference to the ENSO / SST's and SOI. They speculated that we might have been witnessing some kind of an anomaly in reference to the SOI always correlating with the SST anomalies.

If you follow them as closely as I do you can see how differently they have been behaving for years now but certain climate patterns still follow the correlations.

The United States meteorological and climatological community tends to only think at the SST anomalies while their counterparts in Australia put as much emphasis on what kind of SOI averages are occurring.

We witnessed very strong negative SOI readings last March. The 30 & 90 day averages in March 2005, exceeded the peak values, at any time during the 2002 -2003 El Nino event.


Jim

[HurricaneJoe22]

speaking of El Nino, there's a documentary on El Nino coming up at 1 a.m. EDT tonight on National Geographic Channel

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even the weakest of El ninos like 2002, could distoryed our chances of reaching 20 storms.