EPAC Warm Anamolies

[Derek Ortt]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

just was checking these out today and was a bit surprised to see the amount of warming in the equatorial Pacific as I did. Some areas are 2-3C above normal. Some cool anamolies, but at least for now, the warm ones seem to be winning out. Interesting to see how these pan out over the next few weeks

[WeatherEmperor]

those are very tiny pockets though. What impact could that have on Atlantic?

<RICKY>

[Hurricaneman]

those are very tiny pockets though. What impact could that have on Atlantic?

<RICKY>

Might explain some of the shear

[Frank2]

Funny that you should mention this - I had noticed the same when looking at an SST map late last week, and the temperature eddies (or better yet the pooling of warm water) seemed to indicate the possibilty of a weak El Nino beginning in the eastern Pacific, and might explain the sudden change on the Atlantic side.

Frank

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It doesn't appear that they will have any effect on bringing an El Nino to affect the remainder of the season.

[sma10]

Funny that you should mention this - I had noticed the same when looking at an SST map late last week, and the temperature eddies seemed to indicate the possibilty of a weak El Nino beginning in the eastern Pacific, and might explain the sudden change on the Atlantic side.

Frank

Frank: You mean these changes occur that simultaneously? There's no lag whatsoever?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Frank that is not what is impacting the Atlantic right now...what is impacting the Atlantic is a 'spinoff'...if you can call it that...dry MJO....as shown in the MJO posts yesterday, as well as a mid latitude trough.

[Frank2]

I don't know the answer to that question, but honestly, I don't believe that anyone knows enough to really say for certain.

One thing is for sure - it's been found that the Earth is far more environmentally sensitive than was believed many years ago, so it's possible that a even a slight change can mean a much greater outcome.

Frank

[Frank2]

I guess everyone is posting too quickly, but, in answer to what you mentioned - what you are saying is true, I'm sure, but, the mystery for some here and within the weather industry is the increased shear at this time (aside that caused by ULL's).

Frank

[sma10]

Obviously you can take this with a grain of salt, but here are 4 different representations of the Atlantic 6 days from now:

Canadian:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

UK:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

Nogaps:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=120hr

A few days from now, we MAY not be talking much more about a dead season.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Not really any mystery though...its caused by ULLs, troughs, the dry MJO--somewhat---and even being on the incorrect side of a ridge. You would be able to tell, trust me, if an El Niño was causing that.

[gkrangers]

They are all in love with a certain wave over Africa.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not saying a strong el nino or anything like that. It is just that this basically eliminates any chance of a la nina anytime soon it appears

[WeatherEmperor]

They are all in love with a certain wave over Africa.

Yup. I think that is the same one that Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned last night on TWC.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

I'm not saying a strong el nino or anything like that. It is just that this basically eliminates any chance of a la nina anytime soon it appears

There haved been any forecasts for la nina to develop anyway from the ENSO models since January as Neutral ENSO is what they haved been forecasting.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

And the latest from them forecast more Neutral ENSO towards the end of 2005.

[cycloneye]

They are all in love with a certain wave over Africa.

Yup. I think that is the same one that Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned last night on TWC.

<RICKY>

See my thread of African Waves.

[wxmann_91]

Obviously you can take this with a grain of salt, but here are 4 different representations of the Atlantic 6 days from now:

Canadian:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

UK:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

Nogaps:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=120hr

A few days from now, we MAY not be talking much more about a dead season.

The models picked up on Irene a week before it even became a TC and it turned out to be a crap storm.

Even I jumped on the Global Fairy System in late July when it said mid-August things would heat up, but of course the Atlantic is still as cold as ice cream in terms of activity.

[Frank2]

Re: sma10's post

Those long-range maps that seem to consistently depict a Cape Verde low remind me of current surface maps at this time of year, which consistently indicate a heat low over Arizona!

Frank

[sma10]

wxmann_91:

You really hold yourself to some stringent standards. Didn't Irene become a hurricane? What exactly is your definition of a "non-crap" storm?

[sma10]

Re: sma10's post

Those long-range maps that seem to consistently depict a Cape Verde low remind me of current surface maps at this time of year, which consistently indicate a heat low over Arizona!

Frank

True, true, true....but we can at least hope that ALL of them are not wrong

Besides, if they happen to be correct, that would mean things would start popping around Aug 21 or so.....which would not be so unusual and very consistent with the most recent years.