East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W/19W S OF 21W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
14N16W.

The above from 8 AM Discussion:

The wave behind is the one the models are bullish about.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The SAL is very deep over the Eastern Atlatnic. Don't expect any development into it weakens some.

[Marilyn]

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W/19W S OF 21W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
14N16W.

The above from 8 AM Discussion:

The wave behind is the one the models are bullish about.

What does that mean Cycloneye bullish,, That this one will most likly develope? I am new at the weather world terms. Tks Marilyn

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W/19W S OF 21W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
14N16W.

The above from 8 AM Discussion:

The wave behind is the one the models are bullish about.

What does that mean Cycloneye bullish,, That this one will most likly develope? I am new at the weather world terms. Tks Marilyn

Bullish means that the models are following a system in consecutive runs and develop it.On the contrary when the models start to drop a system then they are not bullish anymore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the Sal. It is about as deep as it gets. Also have you noticed that the Eastern Atlatnic has not formed anything more then a few tropical depression?

[HURRICANELONNY]

The last burst of SAL is moving farther into the Atlantic. More moist air is slowly coming in. I guess it is associated with the MJO. It's suppose to be entering the gulf. The favorable MJO that is. The upper High over and extending out of Africa has been the real culprit in bringing the latest SAL. It will change believe me. Check the latest SAL loop:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

[Hyperstorm]

The strong tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday has moved WNW for some inexplicable reason. Chances of development have decreased because it has moved into an area of weak-moderate SAL. I really can't tell why the area has moved WNW. If it had stayed near the ITCZ, it wouldn't have been impacted by the SAL and it could have had better conditions. (Waves this year appear to move offshore farther north than normal, and while this would normally mean more activity than normal in that area, this year they have been moving right into the heart of the SAL, which has weakened them.) I would watch it as it moves farther west as it moves farther away from the SAL.

What this wave has done is (again) increase the moisture levels right behind it. These constant channels of moisture indicate that conditions are gradually improving over the Eastern Atlantic. This should lead the way for better conditions for the next tropical wave/low that is already near 12N, 2E. It definitely is a vigorous system with a broad surface circulation associated with it (according to surface reports) and it wouldn't be surprising if it develops a squall line as it heads westward (although it appears to be more of a LARGE MCS). This system is developed by some global models, but that is still at least 48-72 hours away.

Keep watching the Eastern Atlantic because conditions are gradually improving with stronger waves moving offshore...and that means business...

[WeatherEmperor]

didnt Dr.Steve Lyons last night on the weather channel mention that the next serious wave we need to watch is the one that was over Nigeria at the time with signs of a low level circulation? he said it could move off Africa in like 2-3 days or so.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

The strong tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday has moved WNW for some inexplicable reason. Chances of development have decreased because it has moved into an area of weak-moderate SAL. I really can't tell why the area has moved WNW. If it had stayed near the ITCZ, it wouldn't have been impacted by the SAL and it could have had better conditions. Waves this year appear to move offshore farther north than normal, and while this generally means that they have a better chance of development...Not so far this year! They have been moving right into the heart of the SAL, which has weakened them. I would move it as it moves farther west, but again chances of development are lower.

Maybe the orientation of the upper high inside Africa a cause of the change in track?

[Hyperstorm]

The strong tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday has moved WNW for some inexplicable reason. Chances of development have decreased because it has moved into an area of weak-moderate SAL. I really can't tell why the area has moved WNW. If it had stayed near the ITCZ, it wouldn't have been impacted by the SAL and it could have had better conditions. Waves this year appear to move offshore farther north than normal, and while this generally means that they have a better chance of development...Not so far this year! They have been moving right into the heart of the SAL, which has weakened them. I would move it as it moves farther west, but again chances of development are lower.

Maybe the orientation of the upper high inside Africa a cause of the change in track?

There is definitely an upper high that is currently located over the Eastern Atlantic and was once over Western Africa. This ULH exited the coast before this wave did. This brought a strong influx of dry air from the cool North Atlantic. It appears to have also created a slight trough to its east, which helped the system gain some latitude and stretch it. Don't get me wrong, in my eye it is still a fairly strong system, but it needs to get itself out of the SAL for any development.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not too worried about SAL doing this and SAL doing that. Remember that the 1998 season didnt begin crankin until Bonnie formed on August 20th of that year and the season ended up with 14 named storms.

<RICKY>

[Hyperstorm]

Im not too worried about SAL doing this and SAL doing that. Remember that the 1998 season didnt begin crankin until Bonnie formed on August 20th of that year and the season ended up with 14 named storms.

<RICKY>

I find this completely normal. In a "normal" year, the strength of the SAL doesn't start to wane until the middle part of the month of August. July is normally the driest month over the Eastern Atlantic. Now that we're reaching the latter part of August, SAL should occur with less frequency and less strength. In fact, latest surge of SAL is NOT as strong/widespread as previous surges.

[Frank2]

Re: Matt's post

I agree, and though there is one disturbance at 10N 20W, the eastern Atlantic is still relatively quiet for this time of year, and, though some may say it's still early, in reality it isn't, since just two short weeks from this Thursday is September 1.

I've been watching TWC and the local OCM's off and on for the past several days, and, what really stands out is the current trend among all of them to no longer mention the "record season" byline - this seemed to come to an end with the dissipation of TD10 on Sunday morning.

Frank

P.S. Just a hint - reporters being reporters (and OCM's are reporters, too), don't be surprised if they check this and other weather message boards for any indication on what is happening from "inside sources".

[gatorcane]

Re: Matt's post

I agree, and though there is one disturbance at 10N 20W, the eastern Atlantic is still relatively quiet for this time of year, and, though some may say it's still early, in reality it isn't, since just two short weeks from this Thursday is September 1.

I've been watching TWC and the local OCM's off and on for the past several days, and, what really stands out is the current trend among all of them to no longer mention the "record season" byline - this seemed to come to an end with the dissipation of TD10 on Sunday morning.

Frank

Frank, true but TD 10 will develop within the next couple of days and head in the general direction of FL and as reactionary as the media is, they will start talking about "records" again.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not too worried about SAL doing this and SAL doing that. Remember that the 1998 season didnt begin crankin until Bonnie formed on August 20th of that year and the season ended up with 14 named storms.

<RICKY>

I find this completely normal. In a "normal" year, the strength of the SAL doesn't start to wane until the middle part of the month of August. July is normally the driest month over the Eastern Atlantic. Now that we're reaching the latter part of August, SAL should occur with less frequency and less strength. In fact, latest surge of SAL is NOT as strong/widespread as previous surges.

exactly. I do remember Dr.Lyons on TWC referring to it as "high pressure surges". I dont know if that is similar to the SAL situation but nonetheless he also said just as you did, that this sort of stuff is perfectly normal for this time of year and if it happens, one should not be too surprised by it.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

True on both counts (though I hope you don't mind if I say I hope it doesn't), but, the environment is still fairly hostile (shear being a big factor), and the system still very weak.

Frank

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm it looks like a piece of the wave is moving WNW as you said and the other is in the ITCZ with some deep convection down around 10n.Is that right about what I am seeing?

[Fego]

Cycloneye look at this Intellicast Atlantic loop.. look like convection is moving west..:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... odnav=none

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm it looks like a piece of the wave is moving WNW as you said and the other is in the ITCZ with some deep convection down around 10n.Is that right about what I am seeing?

The main axis of the wave is stretched from the ITCZ to the Sahara. The southern part of the convection is moving west as the northern part moves WNW. It should generally move westward now since it has moved over water, but since the main core is now from 12N-16N, it would not bode well for immediate development. It would have to concentrate around a common center, rather than taking up hundreds of miles of North/South latitude.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye look at this Intellicast Atlantic loop.. look like convection is moving west..:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... odnav=none

Yes that is the ITCZ area convection which is moving west.