NEW Video Update-Naso's New Numbers/Irene

[dwg71]

post those same numbers for sept 1, and lets look.

[senorpepr]

post those same numbers for sept 1, and lets look.

I believe you're asking for me to adjust my numbers to discount any activity between August 15-31. If so...

Code: Select all

A= Storms prior to Aug 15
B= Storm Sep 01 and after
C= 2005 YTD + year's storms Sep 01 and after, discounting Aug 15-31

      A   B   C
1995  07  07  16
1996  03  06  15
1997  05  03  12
1998  01  10  19
1999  01  07  16
2000  02  11  20
2001  03  11  20
2002  03  08  17
2003  05  09  18
2004  05  07  16

Although the chances of no activity between now and September 1st is very low as the pattern is shifting toward a more favorable set up. Regardless, even if there were no storms between now and then, 15-20 storms is likely.

[dwg71]

I'm not discounting the 15th to 31st. I'm discounting the 15-20th and saying one named storm 20th - 31st. Not unlikely. I'll say 17/7/3

[senorpepr]

I'm not discounting the 15th to 31st. I'm discounting the 15-20th and saying one named storm 20th - 31st. Not unlikely. I'll say 17/7/3

Code: Select all

A= Storms prior to Aug 15
B= Storms between Aug 15 and Aug 20
C= Storms Aug 20 and after
D= 2005 YTD + year's storms Aug 20 and after, discounting Aug 15-19

      A   B   C   D
1995  07  00  12  21
1996  03  01  09  18
1997  05  00  03  12
1998  01  00  13  22
1999  01  01  10  19
2000  02  01  12  21
2001  03  01  12  21
2002  03  00  09  18
2003  05  00  11  20
2004  05  00  10  19

Even discounting Aug 15-20, nothing really changes... 18-22 named storms.

[wxwatcher91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm going to say we will see another 2 to 3 named storms by Sept 1st... I think 1 to 2 will become hurricanes and 0 to 2 of them will be intense... I also think that it is possible for us to see a cat 4 before Sept 1st...

then September... starting with 1st through 15th... provided that the ULLs leave us, we could see July 2005 crammed into the first half of September considering high SSTs and wet MJO in control... but I will repeat... ULLs could be the "downfall" of this season. we could see another 3-4 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes and again provided that shear is down a notch from what is has been I think every hurricane could become intense...

the first few weeks of September will contain our master... each season has their big one... judging by Dennis and Emily early on, this could be the big one of, well, a good many years. the thing with Dennis and Emily... they didnt encounter much shear or dry air... mainly SST monitoring was how they could be forecasted... considering SSTs are soaring upwards, all that is needed is another stretch of time where the Atlantic is swept clear of shear... I dont know if that could happen ever, but if it does we could very well get a 170mph hurricane and perhaps and cat 4 to 5 strike.

things should begin to wind down later in September with an additional 2-3 named storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and perhaps another major... October and November should feature a couple more named storms and another hurricane... major I doubt but we have had a few in the past... I think we could also get another 1-2 in December.

all in all... 22-12-7 is my season forecast... the named storms I am pretty confident in... as already seen so far this season, we have had a lot of TS production. with the high SSTs, many more pieces of energy that would have scooted through the Atlantic unnoticed years before now develop at least modest convection... the hurricane and intense categories are where my confidence falls... my season forecast for those categories is a bit high I think and relies a great deal on whether these dang ULLs will scat lol...