Floydbuster....Your Forecasts Are....

[Homey]

....very informative relative to what you think systems are going to do going forward from the time of your forecast. However, you rarely discuss why the system did not react as your previous forecast predicted. We could all learn more if you could share these type thoughts in your future forecasts.

Keep up the great work!

[Homey]

BUMP....since Mike was probably away most of the day.

[Anonymous]

Well, as I mentioned, had Irene not made those reformations north...it would have been close. Plus, the ridge was weaker.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Lets see you make a forcast thats right all the time then MAYBE you can come back here and complain when Mike's forcasts aren't always right!

[senorpepr]

Lets see you make a forcast thats right all the time then MAYBE you can come back here and complain when Mike's forcasts aren't always right!

I don't believe Homey was getting after Mike on his forecast, but rather requesting Mike to share the "lessons learned" from the forecast. As a forecaster that is the best thing you can do when you miss a forecast -- review it. Once you learn those lessons, then you can apply it to future forecasts to improve on the quality. In addition, sharing those learned lessons helps everyone.

[Jim Cantore]

Yea Mike that would help us learn alot more on how storms defy these forcasts

Since the TV guys are sometimes to full of themselves to admit it

[beachbum_al]

I didn't think Homey was trying insult Mike. I think he was complimenting him along with asking how and why the systems do what they do.

[gkrangers]

He'd never sleep if he had to explain why he was wrong.

[SkeetoBite]

[senorpepr]

[img]

LOL... that's great.

[Homey]

JamesFromMaine2.....

Senorpepr was exactly correct! My post was to complement FB and ask him to share what he learns from missed forecasts when he has time.

I was not judging him as you did me.

Regards,

Homey

[Anonymous]

Thanks man

[george_r_1961]

Many of us, including myself, felt that Irene would make landfall in the US. While im not a met, and Mr. Naso is probably more knowledgeable than me about the finer points of tropical cyclone forecasting, I have been doing this for over 30 years so my guess as to Irenes track was an "educated" one. As was stated earlier the LLC at times was hard to find and it did reform to the north of where we expected it to be. Trying to forecast the track of a tropical cyclone with a poorly defined LLC is difficult at best, since the cyclone is steered by the flow over the "center". The shift to the north brought Irene under upper level SW flow, hence the recurvature.

[Jim Cantore]

What I like about Mikes forcasts are he makes his own clear and Aint afraid to go out on a limb

Thats what a good forcaster isn't afraid to do in my opinion

[ConvergenceZone]

I learn alot from Mike and others on here. This season has been quite the challenge already!! The storms seem to have a mind of their own this year. Predict what a storm's gonna do and it will surely prove you wrong.
Hmm, I should make that last sentence my signature quote