This coming weekend, things should heat up again ...

[x-y-no]

First, I think the remnants of TD10 have a fair chance of getting organized by Wednesday, and by the weekend it may be close enough to be a concern.

And all the globals bring a huge system off the African coast in six days or so. I can't remember the last time I've seen the globals so bullish on a system so early.

[WeatherEmperor]

Really? Do you have a link for me to those globals so I can check it out?

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

what about the GOM

[WeatherEmperor]

what about the GOM

what about it?

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

Really? Do you have a link for me to those globals so I can check it out?

<RICKY>

I use the NCEP site for the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

and the Plymouth State site for the Euro:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

(you need to set some parameters there - pick "Atlantic Tropical", a larger map size, select the "ECMWF-global" and pick the fild you want to see.

Unfortunately, their UKMET runs don't go out that far - I have the statement that the UKMET bombs this system from watching JB's video this morning.

Jan

EDIT:

Here's the Euro at 7 days: (SLP & 500mb heights)

[WeatherEmperor]

thanks man. ill be checkin them out.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

eastern caribbean is blowing up...maybe something in the GOM by later this week?

[x-y-no]

thanks man. ill be checkin them out.

<RICKY>

No problem.

[x-y-no]

eastern caribbean is blowing up...maybe something in the GOM by later this week?

Could be ... although those waves are pretty far south.

[mike815]

thanks x-y-no i think td has a good chance as well by wed we should know i think it will make it

[P.K.]

I use the NCEP site for the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

and the Plymouth State site for the Euro:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

Strange, that site has more for the Met Office model and ECMWF than is avalible on any websites over here. (Remember if we want detailed information from the Met Office we have to pay for again after paying taxes as well)

Met Office guidance on ex TD10:

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 47.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.08.2005 14.3N 47.0W WEAK

12UTC 15.08.2005 15.4N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2005 17.0N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2005 18.0N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2005 19.0N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2005 20.2N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2005 21.4N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2005 22.9N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2005 24.4N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2005 25.4N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2005 26.1N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2005 26.2N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2005 26.2N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[x-y-no]

Strange, that site has more for the Met Office model and ECMWF than is avalible on any websites over here. (Remember if we want detailed information from the Met Office we have to pay for again after paying taxes as well)

Yes, I was really delighted when I discovered this site - the official ECMWF site offers way too little infomation to be of any use.

And I love the pick-your-own-fields overlay feature, especially the fact that you can overlay the same fields from different timepoints.

[P.K.]

I think that is due to the fact that it is paid for by several countries in the EU. There is high security at the ECMWF in Reading and it even had the military alert level on a notice board when I went there. the Met Office just don't like releasing data that we have given them money to produce (The UK radar used to only uppated every 1 hour on their site with a 30 minute delay, now it is every 30 minutes in a 30 minute delay.http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/radar/index.html Anyway you can get a 15 minute radar but you have to pay for it again and even then the resolution is only 5km by 5km.)

Anyway, there might be some useful charts from various models on here, although it does mainly cover Europe: http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

[beachbum_al]

eastern caribbean is blowing up...maybe something in the GOM by later this week?

Please say no. This is the week of the big Boat Race in Orange Beach and I have been looking forward all year to go.

[sma10]

First, I think the remnants of TD10 have a fair chance of getting organized by Wednesday, and by the weekend it may be close enough to be a concern.

And all the globals bring a huge system off the African coast in six days or so. I can't remember the last time I've seen the globals so bullish on a system so early.

No kidding. That wave over central Africa right now looks extremely impressive. There is a very discernible spin and it already has that nice shape.