Official: Hrcn Irene

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artist
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#21 Postby artist » Sun Aug 14, 2005 9:18 pm

according to the 5pm today though Irene may not be a fish...

Image
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#22 Postby artist » Sun Aug 14, 2005 11:56 pm

check out latest recon thread
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#23 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:03 am

101mph flight level translates to 85-90mph at surface?


Best structure and cold tops so far right now!

I knew this storm had it when it was SW of Bermuda...
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#24 Postby artist » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:08 am

interesting - seems it is also saying it is open on the sw side???
L from the recon thread latest vortex message
L. OPEN S-W
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#25 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:10 am

Could be ripping a tighter eyewall in an intensification phase. If it is we'll get an eye any minute now...
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#26 Postby artist » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:11 am

thanks Sanibel.
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#27 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:09 am

just posted a message about Irene becomming a hurricane, but quickly deleted it once I saw this topic. I missed it before :).

Congratz to Irene... Ya finally made it... :D
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#28 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:24 am

artist wrote:interesting - seems it is also saying it is open on the sw side???
L from the recon thread latest vortex message
L. OPEN S-W


The eye is open on the SW side.
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#29 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:27 am

Is the any possibility of Hurricane Irene to make it to 100mph
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#30 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:34 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Is the any possibility of Hurricane Irene to make it to 100mph


Yes, but it'll have to be within 24 hours while it is still in the warm waters of the gulf stream.
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#31 Postby artist » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:18 am

from the 2am TWD -

SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 15/0300 UTC
BASED ON INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT. HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.3N 69.2W AT
15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 355 MILES...308 NM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 325 MILES...282 NM...NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IRENE EXHIBITS A SMALL EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO THE N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#32 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:23 am

15/0615 UTC 35.7N 68.6W T4.5/4.5 IRENE


77 knots/90 mph

This shows it is now 90 mph.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#33 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:26 am

000

WHXX01 KWBC 150703

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



HURRICANE IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050815 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050815 0600 050815 1800 050816 0600 050816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 35.7N 68.8W 36.8N 66.2W 36.9N 63.0W 36.6N 60.6W

BAMM 35.7N 68.8W 37.1N 66.5W 38.0N 63.3W 38.6N 59.8W

A98E 35.7N 68.8W 37.3N 66.7W 38.1N 62.6W 39.5N 59.4W

LBAR 35.7N 68.8W 36.8N 66.7W 38.0N 64.3W 39.3N 61.4W

SHIP 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS 73KTS

DSHP 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS 73KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050817 0600 050818 0600 050819 0600 050820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 36.8N 58.7W 39.9N 51.8W 46.6N 35.9W 48.3N 12.9W

BAMM 39.7N 56.1W 44.1N 45.0W 49.5N 27.4W 49.9N 8.4W

A98E 41.1N 54.0W 44.3N 39.5W 45.5N 23.1W 41.9N 16.8W

LBAR 41.2N 57.5W 47.7N 44.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 68KTS 51KTS 42KTS 29KTS

DSHP 68KTS 51KTS 42KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 35.7N LONCUR = 68.8W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 15DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 32.1N LONM24 = 70.2W

WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT

CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 60NM
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#34 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:28 am

This would be so much more fun to watch if it wasn't going out to sea. :wink:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#35 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:29 am

It sure would. 8-)
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superfly

#36 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:34 am

Definite eye re-appearing on visible and IR.
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#37 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 15, 2005 4:22 pm

They aren't reconning it. If it was 100mph we would probably see an eye.
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#38 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:13 pm

Looks like shear starting on it now. Probably peaked out. Good structure and convection depth still...
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