Time to breathe.

[du1st]

Looks like we can breath now. I think the shear and dry air was more than people thought and I told yall 05 is no 04.(ofcourse it is not done till it's done.) I'll be taking a break in a week school starts soon. See ya soon.

[sma10]

Looks like we can breath now. I think the shear and dry air was more than people thought and I told yall 05 is no 04.(ofcourse it is not done till it's done.) I'll be taking a break in a week school starts soon. See ya soon.

Bye

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

?

[du1st]

Come on I am trying to make a nice statement. Please don't bash me.

[senorpepr]

Okay... I'm going to repost this from one of my stat posts...

Regardless, not much to talk about this past week. We dropped Harvey while Irene persisted throughout the week. No additional NS, but with Irene, one new H. Therefore, with a "lull" (as compared to July), the overall numbers have dropped.

Even with the numbers dropping somewhat because of the fairly quiet last week, this is pretty typical of the early-half of August.

Since the 1995-present era of above-normal activity (excluding 1997), August 1-14 yields 1.44 named storms. August 15-31 yields 3.11 - an increase of 215.972%. If you apply that to this year's 2 named storms in early August, another 4 or 5 named storms in the next few weeks wouldn't be farfetched. We may be seeing Maria or Nate moving into September.

In addition, I've pinpointed the amount of storms pre- and post-August 15 from 1995 to 2004. Then, I've added 2005's nine named storms to those post-August 15 amounts. If this year is anything like the past decade in terms of post-August 15 activity, we are certainly looking toward 18-22 named storms by the year's end. Of course, that number will be adjusted if there is a lower- or higher-than-normal "heart" of the season.

Code: Select all

A= Storms prior to Aug 15
B= Storm Aug 15 and after
C= 2005 YTD + year's storms Aug 15 and after

      A   B   C
1995  07  12  21
1996  03  10  19
1997  05  03  12
1998  01  13  22
1999  01  11  20
2000  02  13  22
2001  03  12  21
2002  03  09  18
2003  05  11  20
2004  05  10  19

[senorpepr]

In addition to my previous post, I want to mention that shear and dry air is fairly comment this time of year. In addition, both are forecast to decrease and the MJO moves into a more favorable cycle.

[artist]

...and from all the moisture content that is suddenly out there - who knows when something else might decide to get going. How is the shear in the Caribbean right now?

[wxmann_91]

How is the shear in the Caribbean right now?

(Can't post picture as it is too big) Shear maps:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
For this one, look at the orange lines with arrows, showing the direction upper-level winds are moving. I look at those lines with this map more often, as closely-clustered groups of them signal stronger directional shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
For this one, this will show you the trends on where speed shear is decreasing and increasing.

Both speed (change of wind speed with height) and directional (change of wind direction with height) shear hinders TC development.

As you can see, shear not favorable. Over the Atlantic, the main features causing widespread unfavorable shear are:

1) ULL in the eastern GOM (shear over GOM and west Carib.)
2) Anticyclone over Irene (shear over much of western Atlantic)
3) an upper trough over the central Atl (shear over much of central and eastern Atlantic, eastern Carib., and remnants of TD 10)

This type of pattern has actually been fairly stagnant over the last few weeks, preventing anything from strengthening into a major hurricane.

---
If anybody sees that I'm wrong, please tell me that because I've been telling everybody that for the last few weeks!

[artist]

thanks - have a ? though - doesn't that second link you posted show decreasing shear in the Caribbean and Gulf?

[wxmann_91]

thanks - have a ? though - doesn't that second link you posted show decreasing shear in the Caribbean and Gulf?

You're welcome.

And yes the shear is decreasing across the Carib., but light green still exists, which, if you look at the key, means 20 kt shear. If you look at the other shear map, it indicates strong westerly shear and as I said, a ULL over the GOM suppresing TC development there.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, the season is NOT a bust. I expect things to get busy again in September.

[artist]

thanks again - seems it may be headed in the right direction for development though. Hope this isn't the beginning of a trend.

[Swimdude]

I don't think this season is a "bust", necessarily... But I'm no longer expecting us to keep with the pace of 1933.

[WeatherEmperor]

I don't think this season is a "bust", necessarily... But I'm no longer expecting us to keep with the pace of 1933.

how come?

<RICKY>

[hurricanefreak1988]

Some of you guys are hilarious, saying the season is going to be a bust. Get a good look at this...



...because you'll be eating a lot of it real soon.

[Hurricaneman]

Some of you guys are hilarious, saying the season is going to be a bust. Get a good look at this...



...because you'll be eating a lot of it real soon.

Ive had alot of that this season