For those who haven't ventured up to the Tropical Analysis Forum in a while... I invite you to look at a few posts I've maintained.
First is a comparison of 2005 to climatology over the past 30 and 154 years. (See: 2005 vs 30- and 154-year climo)
This post will give a good idea of where we stand compare to climo in terms of number of named storms and timing of named storms. This post is updated every time a new named storm forms.
Second is a calculation of the Net Tropical Cyclone Index compared to the season so far, Dr. Gray's December, April, June, and August forecasts, as well as a forecast based on climo's natural curve in terms of activity. (See: 2005 vs Net Tropical Cyclone Index vs Climatology)
This post will give an idea of how we stand so far in the season compared to climatology as well as Dr. Gray's forecasts throughout the year. Also, that forecast curve will give a subjective view of what could be possible by the end of the year, given that the current activity maintains itself as compared to a normal season.
Statistics in the Tropical Analysis Forum
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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