Eastern Carib Convection

[wxwatcher91]

bump

the convection is really building in the Carib... so much for any dry air that was there... what do you think of development? possible?

Im saying something there could be an invest sometime next week

[WeatherEmperor]

If the windshear would lessen, then perhaps something could spin up.

<RICKY>

[LaBreeze]

Questions? - If this convection holds together, where do all of you see it heading? Yucatan? Mexican Gulf Coast? Texas? Just wondering what's the general concensus.

[wxwatcher91]

another bump really... I'm telling you all... this stuff has potential...

[ConvergenceZone]

there's no doubt that there will be some type of development in this area the next week or two, but it's extremely difficult to pinpoint where right now. The wave has moved pretty quickly and is once again flaring convection. Perhaps something in the GOM later this week, too early to tell however.

[deltadog03]

yeah, god help us if there is something organized coming into the gulf!!!!!

[wxwatcher91]

I cant find anything even remotely resembling a rotation on QS... thats the big thing to watch now... we have the flare up of convection... we just need rotation here.. we need a LLC to develop...

I wonder if the convection will last through tonight and into tomorrow

[TS Zack]

Just an area to watch.

I think something may develop in the next couple of days even though its environment isn't all that favorable. At this point, stare at visible to find a LLC. Just watch and wait.

[wxmann_91]

Three words (and these have been the theme for the last week, really):

TOO MUCH SHEAR.

Man am I getting tired of those words. And these too: SAL and MJO. (but fortuantely those aren't affecting this disturbance as much as the first three words.)

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, it's too much shear RIGHT NOW, but that will change, probably by next week. We are just looking to the future, not the present

[ROCK]

Well, it's too much shear RIGHT NOW, but that will change, probably by next week. We are just looking to the future, not the present

I believe this TW is being influenced by the ULL (tip of FL) + the typical day time heating = alot of convection.

Tonight as in last night it should diminish......

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

here's a color infrared:

[wxmann_91]

here's a color infrared:

Interesting with all the abundant convection over the EPAC and Caribbean it looks like the wet MJO is back. And that could bring another upswing in activity. Remember that TWC's Dr. Lyons said back in late July that the above normal activity in July was due to above normal amounts of convection in the tropical Atlantic. Of course, convection is sparse in the eastern Atlantic and there is too much shear, but maybe we can get some homegrown systems and start the cycle all over again? I sure hope the Atlantic can prove my previous theory on how this season will be a bust wrong soon.

[Swimdude]

Someone please get these poor people a shear map!

we need a LLC to develop...

That's very true. These are just showers moving across the ocean. Until an LLC develops, that's all there ever will be.

[gatorcane]

convection has persisted overnight and into the morning. May have to start watching this area...