UNOFFICIAL..Hrcn Irene #18; extratropical within 96 hours

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 18:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... irene.html

I'll go ahead and upgrade to a hurricane now, for if it is not yet one, it probably will become one in the next couple of hours. Track is same, and out to sea, becoming extratropical in 96 hours.

Scott

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with you. It has 4.0/4.0 with a clouded over eye starting to become better defined on the latest satellite. Yes I think its now a hurricane.

[gkrangers]

The most reliable form of measuring a cyclone is recon...recon says no hurricane..therefor it is not.

Borderline it is, however.

[ncweatherwizard]

I agree with you. It has 4.0/4.0 with a clouded over eye starting to become better defined on the latest satellite. Yes I think its now a hurricane.

Well satellite estimates are 4.0 because of that eye; it's not really a good indication of true intensity.

In general, it's not really important if it's a tropical storm or a hurricane...I'm setting initial intensity at 65kts due to the possibility that these winds exist, or that in any case, likely definitely will in a couple hours.
After all...it's only 5 kts.

[WindRunner]

Ooooh, how daring of you to go against the NHC on upgrading. I think you're right, though.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Based on the measured 850 mb wind of 81 kts from recon, Irene is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as of 6:30 PM EDT. It's only an increase of 5 mph for this to happen though and we're talking a minimal hurricane moving away from the coast.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 142225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN