TD#10 Advisories=Last Advisorie

[superfly]

I think it will be a TS by 11 AM. I wouldn't look too much into the 5 day projections right now as it is still very early.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON
THE APPEARN CE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA
BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI
SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE
DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR
THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. A STAIR-STEP MAY OCCUR IN THE TRACK
BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 120 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT
UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.0N 45.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 55 KT

[Andrew92]

Question: Is the GFDL bipolar?

5:00 PM tonight

THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS
DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.

11:00 PM tonight

HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H.

Anyway, I agree that this TD should slowly intensify at first, and if it survives, may develop further. Still thinking a fish, but we'll see what happens.

-Andrew92

[gkrangers]

Code: Select all

THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR...

Stewart said it all right there..

[Ixolib]

I think I kinda like this "matter-of-fact" and layman's perspective in this advisory!!

THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.

And this where they are "forewarning" us of the reason for possible changes in initialization and track.

HOWEVER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEING POORLY DEFINED.

Almost makes 'ya think they've read some of the recent posts on S2K where many, many discussions ensued on the same topics with Irene and a few other cyclones this year...

[TampaFl]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 140847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1055 MILES...1695 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$




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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 04:50:47 EDT

[TampaFl]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 140844
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005
0900Z SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 47.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.4N 48.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$




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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 04:47:41 EDT

[TampaFl]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140910
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE DEPRESSION TO
THE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS CLEARLY EMERGED FROM
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
12 HOURS OR SO... BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT HAS BEGUN
MOVING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THERE IS
ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THE
ONLY NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 100 N MI DOWNSHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME CLOSER
TO THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THE DEPRESSION COULD
LOSE ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... AS IRENE DID...
THIS CYCLONE COULD PROVE TENACIOUS ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36
HOURS.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN... IT SEEMS LIKELY IT
WILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.... AS AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS... AS INDICATED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES... UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND IT COULD STILL EVENTUALLY REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.6N 46.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.4N 48.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 49.7W 25 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 51.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 54.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 60.5W 40 KT


$$




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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 05:13:34 EDT

[bvigal]

Looks pretty much degenerating this morning. What a difference in only 12 hours! Shear and dry air, the 1-2 punch tc killer.

For those interested, I've plotted the 1st onto the 3rd track forecasts, showing 3 degrees difference at 17.5N. I understand this is only 171n miles, and that is well within normal track errors.

[storms in NC]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 141438
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005
1500Z SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.5W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...DISSIPATING
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.5W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 46.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

[wxwatcher91]

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 14, 2005


Vertical shear associated with an upper-level trough just east of
the Lesser Antilles has taken its toll on the depression. There is
still a low-level circulation as evidenced by low cloud motions and
a Quikscat pass...but it is weak...20-25 kt. Because the system
does not have sufficient organized deep convection...it no longer
meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories
are being discontinued at this time. Since the vertical shear may
relax over the next few days...there is still the potential for
regeneration...and the depression's remnants will be closely
monitored.
The system has turned to the right and initial motion is roughly
320/6. The remnants are likely to move on a general northwestward
track...toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge...over the next
few days.
This is the last advisory on Tropical Depression Ten...unless
regeneration occurs.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/1500z 13.8n 46.5w 25 kt...dissipating
12hr VT 15/0000z...dissipated

[wxwatcher91]

now aint this irony?! what was the one depression that didnt form last season???

yup #10

[deltadog03]

dang...BYE BYE td10...this shearing is crappy

[Andrew92]

Ba-bye TD #10!!! See ya later.....

(it's kinda boring not giving the door emoticon though, but still I don't wanna have to get the can emoticon out)

-Andrew92

[WeatherEmperor]

Eventhough advisories on TD10 have been discontinued, model runs are still coming out for it. The GFDL and UKMET have been updated with the 18Z runs which is a little bit of a surprise to me. Does this usually happen or will model runs eventually stop for this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Andrew92]

Eventhough advisories on TD10 have been discontinued, model runs are still coming out for it. The GFDL and UKMET have been updated with the 18Z runs which is a little bit of a surprise to me. Does this usually happen or will model runs eventually stop for this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Well I don't know the answer to your question, but most of the models are initialized closer to 1200Z than 1800Z. The depression was not yet declared dissipated at 1200Z (8:00 AM EDT)

-Andrew92