bye bye TD 10

[hurricanedude]

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 14, 2005


Vertical shear associated with an upper-level trough just east of
the Lesser Antilles has taken its toll on the depression. There is
still a low-level circulation as evidenced by low cloud motions and
a Quikscat pass...but it is weak...20-25 kt. Because the system
does not have sufficient organized deep convection...it no longer
meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories
are being discontinued at this time. Since the vertical shear may
relax over the next few days...there is still the potential for
regeneration...and the depression's remnants will be closely
monitored.
The system has turned to the right and initial motion is roughly
320/6. The remnants are likely to move on a general northwestward
track...toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge...over the next
few days.
This is the last advisory on Tropical Depression Ten...unless
regeneration occurs.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/1500z 13.8n 46.5w 25 kt...dissipating
12hr VT 15/0000z...dissipated

$$

[wxwatcher91]

now aint this irony?! what was the one depression that didnt form last season???

yup #10

[wxwatcher91]

hey but guess what? the 2005 TD 10 lasted for 4 advisories... the 2004 TD only lasted 3!

omen...?

[Frank2]

Thanks for the update - interesting to note that this morning, a veteran TWC OCM did not expand on the "record season" theme, as they have for each and every Tropical Weather update for the past month or so, instead, he only mentioned the "hostile environment" that was affecting TD10 at that time, and the weakening of Tropical Storm Irene.

Apparently, after a month of weak systems, some in the media are beginning to back away from the predictions made at the beginning of the season.

While I'm not saying that forecasters are or will be entirely wrong, or that the 2005 forecast will be, as they say in the business, "a bust", but, with fortunately only one landfalling hurricane (in the U.S.) so far this season, the environment is apparently not as favorable for tropical cyclone formation as was earlier believed.

With gasoline nearing $3 a gallon, this is for the best - I can't imagine how high the cost would go if Floridians had the same rush for gasoline this year, as we did last year at this time!

Looking eastward, things are very quiet at this time - click on:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

to view.

Frank

P.S. As far as TD10 being similar to the TD10 last year - that's probably all it is - similar, but not related to any other outcome.

[mike815]

it still might regenerate down the road im still not happy

[Brent]

What is wrong with this stupid season???

[storms in NC]

Nothing it is only Aug 14th

[floridahurricaneguy]

Good night everyone. Wake me up when there is anything worth watching. I just hope its not hurricane season 2006. This is so boring! I moved to florida to see some action. lol Careful I said action, not devastation and descrution. It sucks you cant have one or the other Well hopefully things will turn around but I am doubtful.

Matt

[Scorpion]

You moved to the wrong place . Tampa hasnt had a hurricane in 84 years.

[Brent]

You moved to the wrong place . Tampa hasnt had a hurricane in 84 years.

LOL... I've tried to tell him that.

Behind the Georgia coast, Tampa is the safest place on the coast.

[dhweather]

What is wrong with this stupid season???

SAL, unfavorable MJO, bad karma....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good night everyone. Wake me up when there is anything worth watching. I just hope its not hurricane season 2006. This is so boring! I moved to florida to see some action. lol Careful I said action, not devastation and descrution. It sucks you cant have one or the other Well hopefully things will turn around but I am doubtful.

Matt

Though Tampa has had no major canes hit recently, we get weak
systems very frequently, in fact almost every year. The strongest of which impacted in 2000,2001,2004 all had strong TS/weak cat
1 winds over the bay sometime during the year.

So we DO get lots of ACTION with no Destruction since the worst are
just cat 1s

[Opal storm]

Good!I've had to deal with 2 major canes this year I don't want to see anymore.Hopefully the rest of this season will be fishes and duds.

[x-y-no]

While TD-10 has opened up into a wave at this point, and has another day or two of shear to fight through - I don't think we can rule out the remnant being resurrected three to five days down the line.

For example, the 0z Euro correctly opens it up into a wave, but carries that wave along NW to WNW over the next several days - with the weakness to the north gradually filling in after 5 days.

(these images are from the Plymouth State site - SLP overlayed with 500mb geopotential heights)

3 days:



5 days:



7 days:



Absent more development than this shows, this is obviously nothing to get excited about. But the globals will frequently underplay cyclogenesis in such situations, so it still bears watching. That ridge setup at 7 days clearly suggests an EC threat if something does develop.

The upper air situation at 7 days:



isn't perfect by any means, but would allow for very good outflow to the east and south.

Jan

[Sanibel]

Guess Tom Rector was right. I thought it looked like a TS yesterday.

[gkrangers]

Guess Tom Rector was right. I thought it looked like a TS yesterday.

He wasn't right.

[sma10]

Thanks for the update - interesting to note that this morning, a veteran TWC OCM did not expand on the "record season" theme, as they have for each and every Tropical Weather update for the past month or so, instead, he only mentioned the "hostile environment" that was affecting TD10 at that time, and the weakening of Tropical Storm Irene.

Apparently, after a month of weak systems, some in the media are beginning to back away from the predictions made at the beginning of the season.

While I'm not saying that forecasters are or will be entirely wrong, or that the 2005 forecast will be, as they say in the business, "a bust", but, with fortunately only one landfalling hurricane (in the U.S.) so far this season, the environment is apparently not as favorable for tropical cyclone formation as was earlier believed.

With gasoline nearing $3 a gallon, this is for the best - I can't imagine how high the cost would go if Floridians had the same rush for gasoline this year, as we did last year at this time!

Looking eastward, things are very quiet at this time - click on:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

to view.

Frank

P.S. As far as TD10 being similar to the TD10 last year - that's probably all it is - similar, but not related to any other outcome.

Frank: With your experience I'm sure you know not to fall into the trap of making any kind of judgements about the hurricane season on Aug 14. While it's not certain, conditions over the Atlantic are forecast to improve within the next few days. Also, looking east, keep your eyes on 15N 30W. That low is actually diving WSW at a pretty good clip, and I would look for something to pop with that wave in the next 3 days.

[Downdraft]

Here we are not even 1/2 way through August waiting for the "J" storm to form and some people are implying this season is a bust???? The same people I suppose that would like to see a landfalling major every week. It amazes me the people that say they just love to following tropical systems don't follow the EPAC systems. Anyone that would even hint this season is or is going to be a bust hasn't got a clue.

[Swimdude]

To be honest, my hopes of catching 1933 with this hurricane season are fading as TD#10 dissipates... Why? This means we still need THREE named storms before the end of August. If TD#10 had become Jose, then we would've had only 2 remaining... However... Since this is not the case, i'm closing the doors on this possibly being a record season.

[Sanibel]

I think they mean "bust" in relation to the predicted 20 storm record season.