Only 3 of last 55 yrs had >2 NS form 8/1-15; Avg only 1

[LarryWx]

For those who may feel that August '05 so far has been relatively inactive in terms of # of named storms (NS) that first formed (two have formed): this is not at all the case. Here are some stats backing up this idea:

- Having TWO NS during 8/1-15 is TWICE the average going back to 1950, which is only ONE NS during 8/1-15.

- Even if we just look at the very active years 1995-2004 and exclude 1997, the average for 8/1-15 was only 1.4 NS.

- Since 1950, there have been only three years with more than two NS during 8/1-15: 2004, 1990, and 1969.

- Even the record year 1933 only had ONE during 8/1-15. It had SIX during 8/16-31!

- The very active 1995 had just TWO during 8/1-15, but FIVE during 8/16-31!

- Since 1950, the average # of NS for the entire season through 8/15 has only been 2.7. For the very active years 1995-2004 (excluding 1997), that number was only slightly higher at 3.3. So, the bulk of above average activity for these very active years was AFTER 8/15. Yet, we're already 5.7 above average for these active years alone!!

- Since 1950, 25 of the 55 years had only TWO or fewer NS season to date through 8/15 compared to 2005's TWO during 8/1-15 alone.

- 8/16-31 has had on average ~TWICE the activity of the respective 8/1-15 periods (when looking at either 1950-2004 or just the very active years since 1995).

For the fun of it, I'm going to predict THREE NS to first form 8/16-31/05. This includes any TD that may first form during 8/16-31 but not get upgraded/named until 9/1+. This would exclude TD #10 should it somehow ever come back. By the way, THREE for 8/16-31 is the average of the active years since 1995 vs. only TWO for 1950-2004.

[EDR1222]

Those are some interesting stats. I would have thought the numbers might be higher.

July definately spoiled us!

[webke]

That information should start to get everyone to realize that the 2005 season is really only beginning to get underway.

Ken

[LarryWx]

The bottom line: the real meat of the season is 8/15-10/15. So, 8/1-8/15 often is NOT all that active. That being said, 8/1-15/2005 has still been twice as active as the long-term average for 8/1-15.

[WindRunner]

Oh boy, six in two weeks. Wow.

[Swimdude]

Excellent!

I really hope people get around to reading this one!

[Hyperstorm]

Excellent stats, Larry. I must congratulate you...

I can't believe how many people have let their guard down for the rest of the season (Although, I shouldn't say "I can't believe", since this happens EVERY single season.). The normal season to me has always been from August 15 on.

Anyone remember the actively destructive years of 1998 and 1999? Those years had their SECOND tropical storm form AFTER August 15 (to be more specific, Aug. 20/1998, Aug. 19/1999) and ALL of their hurricanes (TEN in 1998, EIGHT in 1999 with FIVE Category 4 hurricanes!).

What can you tell about the very active 1995 to this date? 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane.

What can you tell about 1996 to this date? 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane.

What can you tell about 2003 to this date? 5 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, NO major hurricanes.

What can you tell about 2004 to this date? 5 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes.

Now, what can you tell about 2005 to this date? 9 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes (with Irene right on the verge of becoming one), 2 major hurricanes.

The fact is that 2005 is WAY ahead of ALL the years since 1995 in terms of tropical storms, average in terms of hurricanes, and ahead in terms of major hurricanes.

This should prove that the "heart" of the season hasn't arrived yet. I can guarantee to you that before September is over we would have witnessed AT LEAST 3 long-trackers (origin east of 40W) across the Atlantic (whether these systems make it to the US/islands is another story) AND 6-10 tropical storms based on past years since 1995.

Just wait and talk to me come October...

[LarryWx]

Excellent stats, Larry. I must congratulate you...

The fact is that 2005 is WAY ahead of ALL the years since 1995 in terms of tropical storms, average in terms of hurricanes, and ahead in terms of major hurricanes.

Thanks Hyperstorm. Also, thanks for your stats. Actually, even the two hurricanes to date is slightly above the long term average of between one and two. Regarding majors to this point, I think that the long term average is ~0.5 vs. the two we've already had. The long term average for the ENTIRE season is two majors!

[NastyCat4]

I can guarantee to you that before September is over we would have witnessed AT LEAST 3 long-trackers (origin east of 40W) across the Atlantic (whether these systems make it to the US/islands is another story) AND 6-10 tropical storms based on past years since 1995.

Nope, you cannot "guarantee" anything. You can suppose that there may be at least 3 "long trackers," but "guarantee?" Nobody gan say what will happen with any certainty. The hurricane season is definitely NOT over, but any factual suppositions that the pace of June-July will continute is speculative.

[Hyperstorm]

I can guarantee to you that before September is over we would have witnessed AT LEAST 3 long-trackers (origin east of 40W) across the Atlantic (whether these systems make it to the US/islands is another story) AND 6-10 tropical storms based on past years since 1995.

Nope, you cannot "guarantee" anything. You can suppose that there may be at least 3 "long trackers," but "guarantee?" Nobody gan say what will happen with any certainty. The hurricane season is definitely NOT over, but any factual suppositions that the pace of June-July will continute is speculative.

"Guarantee" should not have been the word since nobody knows the future, however, that's how confident I am. BASED on the years since 1995 (when a new era in Atlantic Hurricane activity began), those are the numbers we can expect after this date through the end of September. There is NO El Nino this year, so we can discount the inactive years of 1997 and 2002.

This is factual information regarding climatology since 1995, so nobody should argue that...