East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[Frank2]

Sorry, but the wave train is still in the station - click on:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

for a full-disk view of today's African weather, which does not show anything of significance as far as tropical lows nearing the coast at this time.

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

and even if there were, they all seem to dissipate as soon as they move off the coast. I think we will have to wait until September until we have anything else to watch. Condtions just won't change overnight. I'm a bit shocked how everything seems to be being blown apart as soon as it starts to get its act together. I'll be curious to see how long this goes on for. Nothing even CLOSE to forming in the open waters right now. Even the convection I mentioned yesterday in the Carrib Sea is all but gone and you can't even tell there's a wave there. I guess this is a good time to get some housework and yardwork done. . Hopefully by September there will be something talk about.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I would not worry so much about a dull season. Once the pattern sets up it will be "on" as they say 'round here. Take a peek at the GFS 144 hrs from now. Once the dry air is out and the mid atlantic ridge continues building, it will produce

[ROCK]

and even if there were, they all seem to dissipate as soon as they move off the coast. I think we will have to wait until September until we have anything else to watch. Condtions just won't change overnight. I'm a bit shocked how everything seems to be being blown apart as soon as it starts to get its act together. I'll be curious to see how long this goes on for. Nothing even CLOSE to forming in the open waters right now. Even the convection I mentioned yesterday in the Carrib Sea is all but gone and you can't even tell there's a wave there. I guess this is a good time to get some housework and yardwork done. . Hopefully by September there will be something talk about.

Hey susie, give it a couple of weeks.... BTW you can come do my yard...


Paul

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

Wave emerging is looking good and wave at central Africa also looks good.Now let's see how the enviromental conditions help or not those waves to develop or not although some models are jumping on these.

[Hyperstorm]

This morning, the strong disturbance over Western Africa is currently approaching the coastline. The system has definitely a broad circulation in the lower levels. There appears to be two areas in the disturbance that will bear watching for possible tight low pressure formation. The area near 9-10N, 16W which is already offshore and the area which is still inland near 10-11N, 14W. There is currently a strong channel of moisture that has shoot up northward from the disturbance and extends from it to 20N, 10W.

This usually indicates one thing:

The disturbance has brought with it another influx of moisture from the ITCZ to the Sahara.

This linear influx of precipitation and energy from the deep tropics is usually a sign of a disturbance that has some potential.

I'm not ready to jump the gun on development just yet because I would like to see it persist over water as well as it has over land. I expect convection to diminish somewhat as it moves completely offshore, but it should soon re-fire in a more concentrated manner near a low pressure center (if one does develop). Once/If that happens, chances of development increase.

I wouldn't worry too much about SAL being a factor because, unlike its predecessors, this one is well embedded in the ITCZ and the SAL is in a weak-moderate category.

I'll be watching because as I've said all along, with the entrance of the favorable MJO into the Atlantic, and the peak of the season approaching, this one has a better than average chance of making it across...

[cycloneye]

This morning, the strong disturbance over Western Africa is currently approaching the coastline. The system has definitely a broad circulation in the lower levels. There appears to be two areas in the disturbance that will bear watching for possible tight low pressure formation. The area near 9-10N, 16W which is already offshore and the area which is still inland near 10-11N, 14W. There is currently a strong channel of moisture that has shoot up northward from the disturbance and extends from it to 20N, 10W.

This usually indicates one thing:

The disturbance has brought with it another influx of moisture from the ITCZ to the Sahara.

This linear influx of precipitation and energy from the deep tropics is usually a sign of a disturbance that has some potential.

I'm not ready to jump the gun on development just yet because I would like to see it persist over water as well as it has over land. I expect convection to diminish somewhat as it moves completely offshore, but it should soon re-fire in a more concentrated manner near a low pressure center (if one does develop). Once/If that happens, chances of development increase.

I wouldn't worry too much about SAL being a factor because, unlike its predecessors, this one is well embedded in the ITCZ and the SAL is in a weak-moderate category.

I'll be watching because as I've said all along, with the entrance of the favorable MJO into the Atlantic, and the peak of the season approaching, this one has a better than average chance of making it across...

As usual another great discussion from you about the future of the train of waves as the peak of the season is nearing.I know that some global models are jumping on something comming from West Africa but I am not sure if it is the one emerging or the one now at Central Africa.

[Amanzi]

A bit off topic here... but my flight home stops at Cape Verde! Will be really cool to land there, just to say I paid a visit the land of Long trackers.

[cycloneye]

A bit off topic here... but my flight home stops at Cape Verde! Will be really cool to land there, just to say I paid a visit the land of Long trackers.

Wow that's interesting to be where in that area near those islands the storms born. When will your flight stop there?

[Amanzi]

A bit off topic here... but my flight home stops at Cape Verde! Will be really cool to land there, just to say I paid a visit the land of Long trackers.

Wow that's interesting to be where in that area near those islands the storms born. When will your flight stop there?

On December 1st, so the tropics will be quiet.

[cycloneye]

A bit off topic here... but my flight home stops at Cape Verde! Will be really cool to land there, just to say I paid a visit the land of Long trackers.

Wow that's interesting to be where in that area near those islands the storms born. When will your flight stop there?

On December 1st, so the tropics will be quiet.

Ok good that you are going by that time and yes it will be quiet.

[Frank2]

Here's a link to the latest Meteosat IR loop (including the 18Z image):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

thought I'd go a bit off-character here, and post another link, per what is seen in the above loop (though the wave on the African coast does seem to have some potential):

http://www.hersheys.com/kidztown/games/ ... ng09.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 144 hours shows a system over the Cape Verde Islands.

[Frank2]

Yes, but a week is a long time for a computer model, and, it still shows that scalloped subtropical high pressure contour (and the low you mention near 20N) - not exactly what could be called a strong ridge, especially west of 50.

Looking at this model, after hearing the many comments earlier today (concerning an upcoming active period), leads me to believe that the season is still going to remain in netural for at least awhile, and, the later it gets, the less likely it is to become very active.

Frank

[Weathermaster]

OUT IN MODEL LA-LA LAND...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE COMING
OFF OF AFRICA NEXT WEEK INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMING. THE
LAST FRAME OF THE MODEL PLACES IT IN A POSITION OF 20 NORTH 45 WEST
ON 25 AUGUST AT 00Z...THIS COINCIDES...WITH AN INCREASE IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PRODUCED BY THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION...BUT THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...IS BARELY SUSTAINED
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE GFS PLACES THE CENTER OF ITS CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT ABOUT 21 NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FORMS NEAR 50 WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND PLACES
GOOD FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC TO OUR EAST AT 850 MB. ON SATURDAY NIGHT
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE CROSSES 50 WEST...BUT ARRIVES IN A MUCH WEAKENED
CONDITION ON MONDAY NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

OUT IN MODEL LA-LA LAND...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE COMING
OFF OF AFRICA NEXT WEEK INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMING. THE
LAST FRAME OF THE MODEL PLACES IT IN A POSITION OF 20 NORTH 45 WEST
ON 25 AUGUST AT 00Z...THIS COINCIDES...WITH AN INCREASE IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PRODUCED BY THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION...BUT THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

There is the mention of the favorable MJO that is arriving into the Atlantic coinciding with the peak of the season.that some dont reconize as an important factor.

[cycloneye]

The disturbance now at Central Africa near Niger is the one the global models are jumping on.

[clfenwi]

The graphic immediately above this post shows what I was about to point out re the GFS 144 hr forecast graphic posted earlier... it is not like the model is pulling something out of thin air, it is something that exists in the present time that the model is moving west and developing.

A week is an eternity for a computer model is a long time as far as track forecasts go, not so long for tropical cyclone formation forecasts, expecially from something pre-existing.

[cycloneye]

The graphic immediately above this post shows what I was about to point out re the GFS 144 hr forecast graphic posted earlier... it is not like the model is pulling something out of thin air, it is something that exists in the present time that the model is moving west and developing.

A week is an eternity for a computer model is a long time as far as track forecasts go, not so long for tropical cyclone formation forecasts, expecially from something pre-existing.

Even Steve Lyons who almost never talks about inside Africa stuff talked today about that disturbance near Niger and I found that very interesting.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery