SPAC: URMIL - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

98P INVEST 260224 1200 13.4S 170.4E SHEM 15 1009

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.6S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 169.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH TIGHTENING, MOSTLY OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GFS
AND GEFS DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND
OTHER MODELS A BIT LATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5S 168.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILLA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF STEADY
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[sasha_B]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF PORT VILA)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 17.94S
D. 167.83E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT
BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

Now "rapidly strengthening" per JTWC. Could this be the first South Pacific storm to get named in 2026?

[cycloneye]

WTPS21 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S 166.9E TO 20.2S 169.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 167.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 167.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 167.3E, APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT
WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[sasha_B]

This really looks like it's coming together. Not sure if/when it'll be named - the RSMC for this region hasn't named any of the 8 TCs (+1 subtropical storm) to form there since July - but I imagine it'll be a 35 or 40 kt TS on ATCF at 18z. There's model support for fairly quick intensification in the short-term, and a real possibility that it reaches or approaches hurricane strength before it runs into more hostile conditions for development.

[sasha_B]

The Invest is now Tropical Storm Twenty-Three per JTWC: maximum sustained winds 35 kt, central pressure 995 hPa. FMS on the other hand has held intensity at "Tropical Low" for their 1930z advisory, so no name yet - but they do forecast it to reach Category 2 on their scale (corresponding roughly to high-end TS ～mid-range Category 1 on the SSHWS). If and when it gets named, it'll be Cyclone Urmil.

[Hurricanehink]

I thought we might go the entire SPAC season without a single named storm! JTWC is predicting future Urmil will reach winds of 65 knots.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
As indicated yesterday, the system strengthened overnight from a tropical disturbance into a tropical depression.
At 6am this morning, TD09F was located approximately 90km southwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu, or about 1020km west of Nadi. The system is currently moving south-southeast at around 15km/hr. The centre of the system is forecast to remain well to the far west of Fiji and is not expected to move directly over the group.
TD09F continues to draw energy from the warm waters of the Pacific and is anticipated to reach Tropical Cyclone intensity within the next 6 to 12 hours. Upon intensification, it will be named Tropical Cyclone URMIL, becoming the first named system for the 2025–26 Tropical Cyclone Season.
While the system’s centre will remain distant from Fiji, associated rainbands and strong to gusty north-northwesterly winds are expected to affect parts of the country from tomorrow.
In anticipation of these impacts, the following advisories are now in force:
A Strong Wind Warning for the waters of Yasawa and Mamanuca, and southwest Viti Levu.
A Heavy Rainfall Alert for the Western Division and Kadavu.
A Strong Wind Warning for land areas of the Western Division and Kadavu, with winds expected to strengthen from tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

This is organizing fast.

[Subtrop]

Tropical Cyclone Naming Bulletin ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 270051
UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 167.8E AT 270000UTC HAS
BEEN NAMED URMIL.

[cycloneye]

TD09F has officially been upgraded into TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL.
It is located at around 18.6S, 167.8E or about 110km south-southwest of Port Villa or about 1010km west of Nadi and moving south-southeast at about 10km/hr.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 989HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 SOUTH
169.4 EAST AT 271200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.4S 169.4E at 271200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
281200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.0S 171.2E AT 280000 UTC
AND NEAR 21.0S 173.7E AT 281200 UTC.

[sasha_B]

B. 27/1430Z
C. 19.80S
D. 169.67E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT. INTENSITY
ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

DT 4.5 / FT 4.0 from JTWC this morning.

Editing to add that we also have surface data from Whitegrass Airport indicating MSLP down to 982 hPa as of 15z.

METAR NVVW 271500Z 36012KT 9999 -DZ FEW015 FEW018CB BKN020 OVC100 28/26 Q0982

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 271955 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 986HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.7S 169.5E AT 271800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY,
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 03
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH MORE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY. SST IS
AROUND 27-28 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.6-0.65 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, MET=3.0 AND
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 20.6S 171.6E MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.2S 174.8E MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.0S 178.9E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 28.6S 176.1W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[cycloneye]

TC URMIL has officially been upgraded into CATEGORY 2 as of 9am this morning.
Located 350km southeast of Port Villa or about 810km west-southwest of Nadi at 9am this morning. It is currently moving southeast away from Vanuatu at about 15km/hr and expected to remain over open waters to the southwest of Nadi.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0 SOUTH
171.4 EAST AT 280600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.0S 171.4E at 280600 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
010600 UTC.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2027794939065794940

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.3S 173.0E AT 281200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.



DEEP CONVECTION REMINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF LLCC AND
BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHEAR, MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER
CONVERGENCE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND
27 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE BAND, YIELDS
DT = 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR,
COOLER SSTs AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.