SPAC: INVEST 98P

[Subtrop]

98P INVEST 260129 0600 15.2S 137.1E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 137.8E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE CIRCULATION IS COVERED BY
LARGE AMOUNTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (3031
C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP 98P, HOWEVER GFS INDICATES QUICK
FORMATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL
DEVELOP. 98P IS DEPICTED TO TAKE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.