SPAC: INVEST 99P

[Subtrop]

99P INVEST 260120 0000 14.8S 151.3E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C).
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH MARGINAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.