ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3319/C98xg8.gif

Whoa...that's honestly a bit satisfying to look at, with how round it is

[Jr0d]

Bring all of your 850mb Dopler, dropsonde, or buoy data obs, along with projected southerly rather then southwesterly upper wind shear. I still challange "Chantal" to bring full on sustained 1-minute period greater than 35mph at landfall. THAT MEANS SURFACE MEASURED WINDS MEASURED BY ANY LAND BASED PRIVATE OR OFFICIAL STATION RECORDING EQUIPMENT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE REPORTED LLC

Three named storms thus far in 2025. Show me actual surface data that supports any of them verifying as legit thus far. Perhaps Chantal will be the first, but I don't believe it will.

Springmaid Pier, SC has had sustained winds over 35kts not too long ago...

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mros1

[LarryWx]

From someone visiting N Myrtle Beach, he said this at ~1AM, it’s gotten quite stormy there (consistent with the radar):

“Hello everyone, I normally post on the New England forum however I am in North Myrtle Beach and the weather has quickly deteriorated to heavy squalls and the wind has increased considerably in the last 30 minutes from an estimated 10 to 15 miles an hour to 20 to 25 with a couple of gusts that have been 40mph at least, I don’t have an anemometer however I think that is a pretty close estimate.”

—————————
These were the 1AM official reports, which are consistent with this guy’s obs:

N MYRTLE BEACH HVY RAIN 76 73 91 E30G44 29.85F FOG
MYRTLE BEACH HVY RAIN 75 73 94 NE15G28 29.82F FOG

[Jr0d]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mros1

Sustained 41kts gusts to 46kts now being reported at Springmaid Pier.

[gib]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3319/C98xg8.gif

The thin wisps radiating outward are ominous, like it would have really intensified with more time over water.

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Raised slightly to 50kts

[sasha_B]

The NHC has raised Tropical Storm Chantal's intensity to 50 kts and 1002 hPa on the 6z intermediate advisory, and UW-CIMSS ADT's automated fix and the last center fix from recon both suggest that the center is now located under an irregular CDO. It's clear that Chantal has intensified in line with (or slightly faster than) what was forecast by the NHC and the regional hurricane models & will be making landfall shortly as more than a minimal tropical storm.

[Nimbus]

The NHC has raised Tropical Storm Chantal's intensity to 50 kts and 1002 hPa on the 6z intermediate advisory, and UW-CIMSS ADT's automated fix and the last center fix from recon both suggest that the center is now located under an irregular CDO. It's clear that Chantal has intensified in line with (or slightly faster than) what was forecast by the NHC and the regional hurricane models & will be making landfall shortly as more than a minimal tropical storm.

Pressures and winds at Springmaid pier SC are below that before landfall not expecting much beyond local flooding and short term power outages with this one.

[cycloneye]

[Xpost] https://x.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1941815694464524354

[/Xpost]

[cycloneye]

Agree with this. It overperformed and more time in the water would give it time to possibly reach hurricane status.

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1941835124766634221

[ScottNAtlanta]

This seems to be getting a little further west than forecast. Please keep it from the mountains of western NC. Those people might get PTSD hearing about another named storm even if it isn't that bad, although, the mountains can wring out a lot of moisture if it gets that far west.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1941730477506785292

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1941884720154816846

[Jr0d]

The NHC has raised Tropical Storm Chantal's intensity to 50 kts and 1002 hPa on the 6z intermediate advisory, and UW-CIMSS ADT's automated fix and the last center fix from recon both suggest that the center is now located under an irregular CDO. It's clear that Chantal has intensified in line with (or slightly faster than) what was forecast by the NHC and the regional hurricane models & will be making landfall shortly as more than a minimal tropical storm.

Pressures and winds at Springmaid pier SC are below that before landfall not expecting much beyond local flooding and short term power outages with this one.

Springmaid Pier is north of where the center made landfall hence why the pressure was higher. It probably recorded the highest sustained winds...but the scarcity of weather obs make it tough to know where and how high the highest winds were.

I will not be surprised if higher gusts were recorded elsewhere however.

[Teban54]

Chantal heavily reminds me of Bertha 2020. In addition with their similar path (landfall into SE US), both massively overperformed initial expectations, even if they were still fairly weak at peak. Both make you ask "if only it had 24 more hours over water".

[Nimbus]

The NHC has raised Tropical Storm Chantal's intensity to 50 kts and 1002 hPa on the 6z intermediate advisory, and UW-CIMSS ADT's automated fix and the last center fix from recon both suggest that the center is now located under an irregular CDO. It's clear that Chantal has intensified in line with (or slightly faster than) what was forecast by the NHC and the regional hurricane models & will be making landfall shortly as more than a minimal tropical storm.

Pressures and winds at Springmaid pier SC are below that before landfall not expecting much beyond local flooding and short term power outages with this one.

Springmaid Pier is north of where the center made landfall hence why the pressure was higher. It probably recorded the highest sustained winds...but the scarcity of weather obs make it tough to know where and how high the highest winds were.

I will not be surprised if higher gusts were recorded elsewhere however.

Zero power outages reported near Myrtle Beach currently a few this morning so just a few line resets.
We had over 2 inches of rain in Florida one day last week and low areas do flood so the warnings were justified.

[LarryWx]

Flooding in central NC is getting quite bad with many counties under flood warnings. Very heavy rain has fallen west of the Fayetteville to Raleigh corridor. At least one dam is on the verge of failing. Very dangerous situation!

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1942013159927107898

[emeraldislenc]

Terrible flooding in central North Carolina. Rain reports are off the chart! Even a small storm can cause major problems!