NATL: MELISSA - Models

[jlauderdal]

12z euro puts a cat 4/5 into the western edge of Jamaica, meaning the right front quad is pounding most of the entire island. Long duration Impacts from late Sunday until late Wednesday.
https://i.imgur.com/szlnYPC.png
https://i.postimg.cc/FzgxRy2C/floop-ecmwf-full-2025102312-sfcwind-mslp-caribbean.gif

Interesting times in the Blue Mountains, if that verifies, actually some solid structures up there, and they survived Gilbert. Gilbert is the benchmark; if your building survived it you have a chance in a 5.

[ronjon]

 https://x.com/FLStormChasers_/status/1981372983622193267

That's 50-60 mph winds in the upper keys and tropical storm force along SE FL coast. But the GEM has been a Western outlier of all the globals. It's been persistent, like the GFS, but will it be persistently wrong?

[Beef Stew]

Recent Euro and hurricane model runs would be pretty close to the worst possible case scenario for Jamaica… that would bring immense inland flooding down from the mountains, not to mention the damage C4+ winds will do. Really hope this is not the path Melissa ends up taking.

[MHC Tracking]

12z Google DeepMind swung a little bit to the west, interesting contrast to the hurricane models. On another note, there are no longer any Hispaniola members in the GDM suite

[BobHarlem]

12z deep mind ensembles

[tomatkins]

12z deep mind ensembles
https://i.postimg.cc/xjht9SCf/57242482.gif

Would love to see the upper air setup that leads to that straight up the Chesapeake member. Notable that there are quite a few northeastern US/eastern Canada landfalls.

[Tekken_Guy]

12z deep mind ensembles
https://i.postimg.cc/xjht9SCf/57242482.gif

Would love to see the upper air setup that leads to that straight up the Chesapeake member. Notable that there are quite a few northeastern US/eastern Canada landfalls.

These are just some weird outliers at the moment. They happen all the time this far out. The ones that hit CONUS all seem to get pretty far west in the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmchr/2025102300/slp29.png

Can someone explain this to me please?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/YqrYNtpq/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh12-192.gif [/url]
Another view of the 12z CMC (Canadian) model run that continues to show Melissa moving NE passing just SE of Florida. It's the W outlier.

12z UK Met is also a little further west than that (And still ultra weak)

Indeed, the 12Z UKMET after moving very slowly 100 miles ENE of NE Honduras, turns NE and goes over the Caymans. Also, it’s significantly stronger than previous runs with 997 mb:

ROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 75.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2025 0 15.5N 75.5W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.10.2025 12 15.3N 75.9W 1004 29
1200UTC 24.10.2025 24 15.4N 75.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 25.10.2025 36 16.1N 75.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 25.10.2025 48 16.5N 75.9W 1004 29
0000UTC 26.10.2025 60 16.6N 76.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 26.10.2025 72 16.7N 77.7W 1004 28
0000UTC 27.10.2025 84 16.9N 79.4W 1004 25
1200UTC 27.10.2025 96 16.1N 80.9W 1003 27
0000UTC 28.10.2025 108 15.9N 81.4W 1002 25
1200UTC 28.10.2025 120 16.2N 82.5W 1003 28
0000UTC 29.10.2025 132 15.9N 82.6W 1004 29
1200UTC 29.10.2025 144 16.9N 83.2W 1002 35
0000UTC 30.10.2025 156 17.6N 83.0W 1000 37
1200UTC 30.10.2025 168 19.8N 80.9W 997 41

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Afternoon everyone

Been watching and not posting. First off I wish there was a way for this storm to just fall apart, we know that's not happening. I pray for any land mass this storms hits or is very close to. That said I know it's only a couple model runs, but since I am in Key Largo I am starting to become a bit more concerned. Mod's just realized I'm posting in the wrong thread, please if need be move it.

[CrazyC83]

12z deep mind ensembles
https://i.postimg.cc/xjht9SCf/57242482.gif

Would love to see the upper air setup that leads to that straight up the Chesapeake member. Notable that there are quite a few northeastern US/eastern Canada landfalls.

Timing is everything. If a ridge builds in at the wrong moment, it could either phase with the trough, or slide in front of it onshore. If it stays west of 70W, that's a reasonable scenario.

[Tekken_Guy]

12z deep mind ensembles
https://i.postimg.cc/xjht9SCf/57242482.gif

Would love to see the upper air setup that leads to that straight up the Chesapeake member. Notable that there are quite a few northeastern US/eastern Canada landfalls.

Timing is everything. If a ridge builds in at the wrong moment, it could either phase with the trough, or slide in front of it onshore. If it stays west of 70W, that's a reasonable scenario.

Chesapeake is at 75W.

[floridasun]

UKMET been outline all been area Jamaica and eastern cuba

[xironman]

Euro AI getting close to cutting off the 500mb low and swinging the storm back to the east coast. When you see all the activity associated with this low gives the idea of the baroclinic enhancement the storm could have

[jlauderdal]

Good Afternoon everyone

Been watching and not posting. First off I wish there was a way for this storm to just fall apart, we know that's not happening. I pray for any land mass this storms hits or is very close to. That said I know it's only a couple model runs, but since I am in Key Largo I am starting to become a bit more concerned. Mod's just realized I'm posting in the wrong thread, please if need be move it.

Relax in Key Largo,there is a cold front on the way providing a wall. A few ensemble members and the unreliable Canadian showing it getting closer than reality.

[Pelicane]

GFS is much slower and has a western component, although it remains a northern outlier (north of Jamaica, just south of Haiti). Also drops an enormous amount of rain over Hispaniola.

[Teban54]

GFS is much slower and has a western component, although it remains a northern outlier (north of Jamaica, just south of Haiti). Also drops an enormous amount of rain over Hispaniola.

Even with its slowdown, GFS's continued insistence on a Hispaniola landfall is still really puzzling. Even its own ensembles mostly avoid Hispaniola by now (though not all).

[aspen]

GFS is much slower and has a western component, although it remains a northern outlier (north of Jamaica, just south of Haiti). Also drops an enormous amount of rain over Hispaniola.

Even with its slowdown, GFS's continued insistence on a Hispaniola landfall is still really puzzling. Even its own ensembles mostly avoid Hispaniola by now (though not all).

Same with the ICON. It like neither model responds to the ridge building overhead. Both mostly maintain a NE/NNE trajectory from here on out.

[aspen]

HAFS-A and B shifted east against this cycle. Now they’re getting quite close to the tip of Haiti.

Perhaps the GFS may not have been insane after all.

[aspen]

18z HWRF is by far the furthest south it’s ever been, showing landfalls along the southern coast of Jamaica as a Cat 4/5.

It’s like the HWRF and HAFS swapped forecast tracks this model cycle.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF is by far the furthest south it’s ever been, showing landfalls along the southern coast of Jamaica as a Cat 4/5.

It’s like the HWRF and HAFS swapped forecast tracks this model cycle.

Big shift on HWRF, much slower.