NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneRyan]

Strongest Gabrielle we've had since 1989, much like how 2024's Helene was the strongest since 1988's Helene, but this time Gabby won't be harming anyone, just like back in 1989.

[Hurricane2022]

Gabi is looking even more beautiful, after the recon left. I think we're currently at her peak intensity, with winds around 130 kt and pressure around 942 mb.

[Teban54]

[mitchell]

Strongest Gabrielle we've had since 1989

Gabrielle 1989 was wild. For a storm that tracked up 60W the swells on the east coast were huge. The bouy off Delaware peaked at 8 feet @ 17 second periods around Sept 8. That's 10 foot+ surf and many parts of the coast saw much larger.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe the peak intensity could be bumped to 125 kt? Although I think the highest ADT was T6.3 and Dvorak was lining up very well with the Recon estimates.

How much instability and will there be cool upper-level temperatures ahead? That could allow Gabrielle to hold a lot of the intensity en route to the Azores.

[CrazyC83]

Sorry if repost

https://i.imgur.com/X0zYhbl.png

I think the BT will have a break in the track (as a TC) and that there will be an 18-24 hour period where Gabrielle was just a low, not a tropical cyclone.

[Travorum]

oh my god this is so close to an instantaneous T7.0 at 32.5N if the NW quadrant would grow just a bit, there's no way this is still 120kts

[cycloneye]

The TCR post season will be very interesting to see if there are changes or not.

[cheezyWXguy]

Gabrielle’s IR satellite appearance honestly reminds me of Laura’s as it was approaching landfall. It wouldn’t take much to convince me they’re both about equal in strength either, 120kt for the current intensity seems low.

[Teban54]

[Beef Stew]

I’d be shocked if this wasn’t at least a ~130 kt storm at its peak. I wonder what, if any, changes will be made in post.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please, I deleted a few meme posts. Use PM's if it's not on topic.

[cycloneye]

Hanging on at 120kts.

AL, 07, 2025092312, , BEST, 0, 335N, 592W, 120, 948, HU

[Ubuntwo]

Maybe the peak intensity could be bumped to 125 kt? Although I think the highest ADT was T6.3 and Dvorak was lining up very well with the Recon estimates.

How much instability and will there be cool upper-level temperatures ahead? That could allow Gabrielle to hold a lot of the intensity en route to the Azores.

The final pass found Gabrielle still strengthening, with a pressure drop into the 940s and 135kt 2km winds on the TDR. This appeared to directly support 120kt.

During the final pass, there was still convective debris in the eye with mesovorts visible. The satellite data shows these mesovorts rounded into a cleaner eye, which is usually tied with pressure falls and a spike in winds to 130kt territory. See Laura and Ida for examples where recon caught the mesovort smoothing process. This is also Dvorak's weak point: smooth, warm eyes with a relatively low tropopause keeping CDO convection on the warmer side.

I think this comparison between the last recon pass (with strong support for 120kt) and a few hours later speaks for itself.

[Teban54]

Gabrielle is holding on remarkably well given the latitude, still with a perfectly round and clear eye.

For comparison, Erin started deteriorating very soon after its peak and never really looked nice again. At the latitude that Gabrielle is at right now, Erin was a large, sprawling and weakening Cat 2.

[kevin]

Gabrielle is holding on remarkably well given the latitude, still with a perfectly round and clear eye.

For comparison, Erin started deteriorating very soon after its peak and never really looked nice again. At the latitude that Gabrielle is at right now, Erin was a large, sprawling and weakening Cat 2.

Getting Dvorak T6.1 at 33+ degrees latitude is indeed extremely impressive. Last one to get close in the Atlantic was Fiona in 2022 (T5.9 33.7 deg).

[cycloneye]

Nice.

[kevin]

Gabrielle is holding on remarkably well given the latitude, still with a perfectly round and clear eye.

For comparison, Erin started deteriorating very soon after its peak and never really looked nice again. At the latitude that Gabrielle is at right now, Erin was a large, sprawling and weakening Cat 2.

Getting Dvorak T6.1 at 33+ degrees latitude is indeed extremely impressive. Last one to get close in the Atlantic was Fiona in 2022 (T5.9 33.7 deg).

I did a slightly more extensive search and the result makes Gabrielle even more impressive. There is not a single hurricane in the modern ADT archive (since 2003) which attained T6.0+ at Gabrielle's latitude. In fact, before Fiona in 2022 you'd have to go all the way back to Diana in 1984 to find a cat 4 at this latitude. Ella 1978, Gladys 1975 and Helene 1958 are the only other TCs in the database which have reached 120 kt at this latitude.

[cycloneye]

Not many times we see this for the Azores Islands:

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
all the islands of the Azores.

[Travorum]

We have one week to go until October and the only hurricane watch—not even warning—the entire basin has seen has been for the Azores. What a weird season it has been so far.