FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING LANDFALL. THE
EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS
A PRIMARY MECHANISM, THEREFORE TY RAGASA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. LAND
INTERACTION EXTENT WILL DETERMINE THE RATE AND TIMELINE OF
DISSIPATION, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36
AND 48 NEAR THE BORDER OF LAOS AND NORTHERN VIETNAM.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AS WITNESSED BY A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 12,
EXTENDING TO 75 NM 12 HOURS LATER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL OF TY RAGASA RE-EMERGING OVER WATER NEAR
TAU 24, HOWEVER WELL-INITIALIZING DETERMINISTIC GFS, AS WELL AS
MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS INDICATE TRACK SOLELY OVER LAND. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY OUTLIER, SUGGESTING A TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH. JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK IS THEREFORE LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICTING GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION AT OR NEAR TAU 36, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING LANDFALL. THE
EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS
A PRIMARY MECHANISM, THEREFORE TY RAGASA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. LAND
INTERACTION EXTENT WILL DETERMINE THE RATE AND TIMELINE OF
DISSIPATION, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36
AND 48 NEAR THE BORDER OF LAOS AND NORTHERN VIETNAM.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AS WITNESSED BY A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 12,
EXTENDING TO 75 NM 12 HOURS LATER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL OF TY RAGASA RE-EMERGING OVER WATER NEAR
TAU 24, HOWEVER WELL-INITIALIZING DETERMINISTIC GFS, AS WELL AS
MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS INDICATE TRACK SOLELY OVER LAND. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY OUTLIER, SUGGESTING A TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH. JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK IS THEREFORE LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICTING GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION AT OR NEAR TAU 36, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.
