Forecast to be a major cane at landfall
Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
Erick has become significantly better organized with an increasingly
symmetric and large central convective area with very cold cloud
tops. GOES satellite imagery also shows impressive banding
structures both to the north and south of the central convective
area. The latest subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB range
from 65-77 kt, while the recent ADT estimate is in the 65-70 kt
range. Since the time of the subjective estimates at 12Z, GOES
images suggest that the inner-core stucture has improved
significantly and an eye may be forming. The intensity is
therefore increased to 75 kt for this advisory, and Erik has begun
its anticipated period of rapid intensification. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Erick,
which should provide a better estimate of the intensity.
Erick continues moving to the northwest, or 310/7 kt. This general
motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected
through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along
the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good
agreement, and confidence in the overall track is high. Users should
keep in mind that small track deviations could still lead to
significant changes in where the strongest winds and coastal impacts
occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast
track is unchanged from the previous advisory and lies very close to
the HCCA aid.
Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions surround Erick,
with warm ocean waters, low vertical wind shear and a moist
mid-level troposphere, and these conditions are expected to persist
through landfall. The 06Z HAFS models are forecasting Erick to
become a major hurricane. The various SHIPS rapid intensification
indices indicate a high likelihood of continued rapid strengthening
over the next 24 h, which would result in Erick becoming a major
hurricane. The new NHC forecast explicitly shows Erick becoming a
major hurricane, but it's possible this forecast could be
conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure
continues today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erick is rapidly intensifying and is expected to be a major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern
Guerrero within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Devastating
wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 13.9N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
Erick has become significantly better organized with an increasingly
symmetric and large central convective area with very cold cloud
tops. GOES satellite imagery also shows impressive banding
structures both to the north and south of the central convective
area. The latest subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB range
from 65-77 kt, while the recent ADT estimate is in the 65-70 kt
range. Since the time of the subjective estimates at 12Z, GOES
images suggest that the inner-core stucture has improved
significantly and an eye may be forming. The intensity is
therefore increased to 75 kt for this advisory, and Erik has begun
its anticipated period of rapid intensification. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Erick,
which should provide a better estimate of the intensity.
Erick continues moving to the northwest, or 310/7 kt. This general
motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected
through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along
the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good
agreement, and confidence in the overall track is high. Users should
keep in mind that small track deviations could still lead to
significant changes in where the strongest winds and coastal impacts
occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast
track is unchanged from the previous advisory and lies very close to
the HCCA aid.
Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions surround Erick,
with warm ocean waters, low vertical wind shear and a moist
mid-level troposphere, and these conditions are expected to persist
through landfall. The 06Z HAFS models are forecasting Erick to
become a major hurricane. The various SHIPS rapid intensification
indices indicate a high likelihood of continued rapid strengthening
over the next 24 h, which would result in Erick becoming a major
hurricane. The new NHC forecast explicitly shows Erick becoming a
major hurricane, but it's possible this forecast could be
conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure
continues today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erick is rapidly intensifying and is expected to be a major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern
Guerrero within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Devastating
wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 13.9N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
