NATL: LORENZO - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

Looking like a comma.

[wxman57]

ASCAT from 1244Z indicates a wave axis. All models dissipate it tomorrow.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METC/zooms/WMBds112.png

[DorkyMcDorkface]

ASCAT from 1244Z indicates a wave axis. All models dissipate it tomorrow.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METC/zooms/WMBds112.png

Sure looks like a defined (partially exposed) circulation to me on vis:

[wxman57]

ASCAT from 1244Z indicates a wave axis. All models dissipate it tomorrow.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METC/zooms/WMBds112.png

Sure looks like a defined (partially exposed) circulation to me on vis:
https://i.imgur.com/YqKn6tW.gif

Yeah, I saw the visible loop. It does look like a surface circulation. However, it looks terrible on IR imagery and all models indicate dissipation within 24 hrs.

[Nimbus]

Models must be confusing the Greek Laurel with the storm since the Laurel is shaped like an open wave?
Low level circulation there now.

[cycloneye]

Weakening? I guess not yet.

AL, 12, 2025101400, , BEST, 0, 157N, 423W, 50, 999, TS

[zhukm29]

[zhukm29]

What

[abajan]

Excerpt from NHC Lorenzo Forecast Discussion:

The intensity forecast is quite challenging. An upper-level low
that has been shearing Lorenzo is forecast to drop to the
southwest, resulting in decreasing shear during the next couple of
days. This synoptic evolution is historically well known for
intensification given the recent formation of the small inner core
over warm waters. However, very dry air is present in the
environment, and Lorenzo should embed itself deep into a recent
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreak to the north within a couple of
days. There are credible models that respond to these factors by
weakening this into a tropical depression in a few days, like the
HAFS-A/B, or a category 1/2 hurricane, like the HWRF/HMON. The new
forecast splits these extremes, ending up a bit higher than the
previous official forecast but near the HFIP Corrected Consensus
model HCCA. It should be emphasized that this is a low-confidence
prediction for all of the conditions listed above and the cyclone's
small size, making it susceptible to large upward or downward
changes in a short period of time.

Should be an interesting next couple of days.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Models seem to be having a difficult time with resolving Lorenzo because of its small size. I would personally throw out the models insisting this dissipates today because they are not resolving it well at all (especially the Euro which completely missed this in the first place).

[TomballEd]

New hot tower going up very close to the LLC.

[wxman57]

Got a partial ASCAT-B descending pass hit at 1230Z today. No 35kt wind in eastern half. This is not a 50kt TS. May not even have any 35kt wind. All models still dissipate it within 24 hours.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METB/zooms/WMBds112.png

[wxman57]

Models seem to be having a difficult time with resolving Lorenzo because of its small size. I would personally throw out the models insisting this dissipates today because they are not resolving it well at all (especially the Euro which completely missed this in the first place).

I think that the Euro initialized it best at 30 kts. GFS had 50 kts. It's a lot closer to 30 kts than 50 kts.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like it could be over for Lorenzo.

[wxman57]

Bones is here.

https://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

[AnnularCane]

He was supposed to have a fun little dance around the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Best track at 18Z now lists it as a TD. NHC could well issue a final this afternoon or this evening. I know, nobody cares...

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Visible satellite imagery shows that Lorenzo no longer has a
well-defined circulation and has dissipated. Recent microwave
imagery also suggested that the system had opened to its west.