WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Is a historic landfall in the west side of Taiwan as the most thteats come from the east and not from the SW.

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1941899982824763513

[mrbagyo]

Danas made landfall in Budai, Chiayi at around 23:40 pm local time.

Highest gust I've seen so far is 55.4 mps (CAN120)

[cycloneye]

Both JMA and JTWC downgrade to TS.

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS have it reintensifying while going back to the Taiwan strait

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/KevinLuWX/status/1941942608697409798

[dexterlabio]

Taiwan saw a handful of powerful Cat3-5 typhoons striking the country but from the east. Here with Danas it appears that there are more reports of severe wind damage compared to the previous typhoons. Looks like the angle of approach and the entry point of the storm spelled the difference, even if Danas was merely a Cat 1 at landfall.

Although, I would argue that Danas was a lot stronger than a Cat 1 judging by the sat images alone before landfall.

[sasha_B]

Taiwan saw a handful of powerful Cat3-5 typhoons striking the country but from the east. Here with Danas it appears that there are more reports of severe wind damage compared to the previous typhoons. Looks like the angle of approach and the entry point of the storm spelled the difference, even if Danas was merely a Cat 1 at landfall.

Although, I would argue that Danas was a lot stronger than a Cat 1 judging by the sat images alone before landfall.

The JTWC acknowledged that Danas likely peaked at 100 kts + in their 2025/07/06 12z prognostic reasoning, and there were multiple manual Dvorak fixes of 6.0～6.5 in the hours just before landfall. Also, ADT CI#s were held back by constraints around the time of the actual peak, but had risen to 5.3 by the time of landfall. The ATCF sector file also briefly showed Danas's intensity for the 12z fix yesterday having been overridden to 95 [kts], 954 [hPa] (up from 90, 958) before the 18z (post-landfall) fix was added. Satellite suggests that some weakening did occur between its estimated peak at around 11z on the 6th and landfall, but that peak being set to Cat 3 (or higher) and landfall set to Cat 2+ seems likely in post-season reevaluation.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1941919066404331905

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Danas is going to make landfall in China.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER
WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

[cycloneye]

This is the final warning.

082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 120.3E.
08JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A STEADY TREND OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
DISSIPATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, CONSISTENT WITH THE
DECAY EXPECTED NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE
LANDFALL. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, REMAINING OVER
LAND UNTIL IT FULLY DISSIPATES BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REEMERGE DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPING THE
SYSTEM INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS
986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Surprise. JMA has it as TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 23N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.