ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the solar-stream impact is over.
Density is almost back to normal.

[GCANE]

Ha, IR just went to pot

[GCANE]

And there goes the eyewall on radar

[Teban54]

Ha, IR just went to pot

[EasyTiger]

The storm has actually been trending west over the past few hours. The Atlantic high remains strong and obviously blocked to the west by the trough. The storm basically sandwiched between the two. Landfall close to Vermillion Bay or a tad west is looking likely

[otowntiger]

Ha, IR just went to pot

https://i.postimg.cc/bJ86NHNq/goes16-ir-06-L-202409111442.gif

Looks like she’s past her peak. At this rate of deterioration (dare I say it? Lol!) may not be a hurricane at landfall. I know I’m tempting fate by saying this but that is certainly a rapid decline in appearance and rise in BP, 7 mb climb in just a couple hours.

[EasyTiger]

Ha, IR just went to pot

https://i.postimg.cc/bJ86NHNq/goes16-ir-06-L-202409111442.gif

Looks like she’s past her peak. At this rate of deterioration (dare I say it? Lol!) may not be a hurricane at landfall. I know I’m tempting fate by saying this but that is certainly a rapid decline in appearance and rise in BP, 7 mb climb in just a couple hours.

For sure a weaking system, the dry air intrusion from the west and shear are starting to take their toll

[MississippiWx]

The storm has actually been trending west over the past few hours. The Atlantic high remains strong and obviously blocked to the west by the trough. The storm basically sandwiched between the two. Landfall close to Vermillion Bay or a tad west is looking likely

West of Vermillion Bay? It would have to move due north and even NNW to do that.

[Steve]

Maybe. Looking solid on radar but those high cloud tops are warming on IR. Landfall should be around the beginning of DMAX so we’ll see if we get a last perk up at or just after landfall. It’s picking up a little here. I’d say gusts to 20 and continuous rainfall.

[GCANE]

Shear, CAPE, Dry-Air intrusion didn't significantly change before, during, and after the CME impact event.
I would say correlation coefficient is very high.

[WaveBreaking]

Since we’re getting close to landfall, here’s a reminder of how long we’ve been tracking Francine for. And this is also a reminder of how Francine gave birth to one of the longest discussions on here for a tropical wave and how its (multiple) initial failures led to the site temporarily breaking

[bjackrian]

Eugene Island (KEKE) which is in the NE eyewall is reporting 72kt sustained with gusts to 89kt. Don't know what the elevation of the site is, but it's reported as a regular METAR so I assume it's standard. Pressure down to 29.04.

KEKE 111735Z AUTO 12072G89KT 1/4SM HZ VV002 28/26 A2904 RMK A01

Can follow here if interested https://aviationweather.gov/data/metar/?id=KEKE&hours=24

[Sciencerocks]

[PTrackerLA]

If Francine maintains the heading she's had the past 2 hours we could get some significant winds here in Lafayette. New Iberia could easily experience hurricane conditions with Jeanerette and Franklin being in the northern/northwest eyewall.

Side note: Not playing out at all like the GRAF model predicted... which is what all our local weatherman were treating like the Bible last night.

[Steve]

Eugene Island (KEKE) which is in the NE eyewall is reporting 72kt sustained with gusts to 89kt. Don't know what the elevation of the site is, but it's reported as a regular METAR so I assume it's standard. Pressure down to 29.04.

KEKE 111735Z AUTO 12072G89KT 1/4SM HZ VV002 28/26 A2904 RMK A01

Can follow here if interested https://aviationweather.gov/data/metar/?id=KEKE&hours=24

All I could find was 102 feet. So 30ish meters

[jconsor]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1833921490313732231

[tolakram]

saved loops

[bjackrian]

Eugene Island (KEKE) which is in the NE eyewall is reporting 72kt sustained with gusts to 89kt. Don't know what the elevation of the site is, but it's reported as a regular METAR so I assume it's standard. Pressure down to 29.04.

KEKE 111735Z AUTO 12072G89KT 1/4SM HZ VV002 28/26 A2904 RMK A01

Can follow here if interested https://aviationweather.gov/data/metar/?id=KEKE&hours=24

Now up to 80kt gusting to 96kt. Seems like NHC estimate is pretty spot on as usual.
KEKE 111755Z AUTO 13080G96KT M1/4SM FG VV000 27/25 A2900 RMK A01

[Steve]

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1833921490313732231

That’s awesome. Thanks j.

[Cunxi Huang]

Oil platform in the east eyewall record 92 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 110 mph.
Platform height 102 ft (31 m).