SouthFLTropics wrote:HurricaneBelle wrote:MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:
So... right into the mouth of the bay? In terms of surge that might actually be worse.
Bradenton and Sarasota are south of Tampa Bay (the body of water), the winds would be offshore over the bay as a result (but still Cat 3 or worse) but surge would be alleviated.
Surge would definitely be lessened but not eliminated. This is going to push a bunch of water out ahead of it and some of that is going to stack into the bay no matter what. If the center makes landfall south of the bay, an easterly wind would still likely push quite a bit of water into the east side of St. Petersburg.
Definitely true. I've only driven around down in Sarasota and Bradenton, but you already know there's way more there than just Tampa Bay north of Palma Sola. There are tons of inlets, rivers bays, etc. that are south of Tampa Bay that would get the massive surge. Manatee River (Bradenton), Palma Sola Bay, Lyons Bay, Sarasota Bay, Roberts Bay, Little Sarasota Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Dryman Bay, etc. And there are some really exclusive residences near and on the water and tons and tons and tons and tons of boats. And that's not to mention the barrier islands, many of which got smacked in Helene. So all those communities south of Tampa Bay from the Venice Inlet up to Anna Maria Island could get wrecked (talking Siesta Key, Sarasota Beach, Lido Key, Longboat Key, Bradenton Beach, Holmes, etc.)
Hurricanes: 
ICON has done very well in the gulf in recent past. Euro also trended a tad south. The 18z guidance models tightened up which seemed a bit south. Here we are. Looking at some cat 1 hurricane type effects over Vero if this plays out.
