ATL: MILTON - Models

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#841 Postby KC7NEC » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:00 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:It appears that it will weaken significantly before landfall. Would that be a correct prediction at the moment?

Although the winds are expected to weaken as the storm drops to a Category 3, the surge will remain at catastrophic Category 5 levels and maintain its strength all the way to landfall. This is where the real danger lies. People often focus too much on the wind speeds associated with a category rating and might not grasp how deadly the storm surge can be. My fear is that once again, people won’t take the threat seriously enough simply because the storm is predicted to downgrade before making landfall. But even with lower wind speeds, a surge like this can overwhelm entire communities, causing massive flooding and devastation. It’s critical that everyone in its path understands that a lower category does not mean less risk—especially with surge impacts like these.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#842 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:02 pm

Something else you won't see for a pending landfalling hurricane in the US very often. Early-cycle intensity guidance for 18z

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#843 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#844 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:04 pm

Steve wrote:Something else you won't see for a pending landfalling hurricane in the US very often. Early-cycle intensity guidance for 18z

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2024/al142024/intensity_early/aal14_2024100718_intensity_early.png


So most of these are still cat 3-4 at landfall. That's not super reassuring...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#845 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:04 pm




Is that a south or east shift?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#846 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:07 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Steve wrote:Something else you won't see for a pending landfalling hurricane in the US very often. Early-cycle intensity guidance for 18z

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2024/al142024/intensity_early/aal14_2024100718_intensity_early.png


So most of these are still cat 3-4 at landfall. That's not super reassuring...



I haven’t timed landfall but I’m guessing somewhere in the 48-60 hour range? If so yeah.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#847 Postby snownado » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:08 pm

Steve wrote:Something else you won't see for a pending landfalling hurricane in the US very often. Early-cycle intensity guidance for 18z

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2024/al142024/intensity_early/aal14_2024100718_intensity_early.png


The scaling on that chart is a bit off.

Current projections, for what they're worth, are a Cat 3 at landfall.
Last edited by snownado on Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#848 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:08 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:



Is that a south or east shift?


south..
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#849 Postby caneman » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:09 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:
MrJames wrote:18z track guidance
https://i.imgur.com/wLb8jUx.png

Tightened up a bit.


i cant see tampa bay underneath all those plots.


most of them are just south, over Bradenton/Sarasota


Equal of more amount right up the bay to North
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#850 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:09 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:



Is that a south or east shift?

Some clusters in Cape Coral but more than likely just zeroing in on a landfall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#851 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:09 pm



Not really shifting. And there isn't much time left for a big shift. Someone replaced the Tampa shield with a magnet.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#852 Postby Stormlover70 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:12 pm

Fml in new port richey
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#853 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:16 pm

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:


Not really shifting. And there isn't much time left for a big shift. Someone replaced the Tampa shield with a magnet.


Sure there is time lol we are nearly 2 1/2 days from landfall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#854 Postby otowntiger » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:20 pm


Interestingly seems like the model spread increased a good bit between the 6z and the 12z runs shown here. So I’m not sure I’d call it an overall south shift but yes more models are showing more southeyvapproachvwhike many others are still hanging to the north. The other thing I notice is that it looks to me a lot of those are weaker in the later run. Am I just being too optimistic?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#855 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:22 pm

snownado wrote:
Steve wrote:Something else you won't see for a pending landfalling hurricane in the US very often. Early-cycle intensity guidance for 18z

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2024/al142024/intensity_early/aal14_2024100718_intensity_early.png


The scaling on that chart is a bit off.

Current projections, for what they're worth, are a Cat 3 at landfall.


It's an experimental product from NSF NCAR in Boulder (National Center for Atmospheric Research). https://ral.ucar.edu/about#:~:text=%2DW ... 20research.

So the early cycles are extrapolated out to the next 6 hour model run. The late cycles are run after the regular model runs (same with extra late cycles). A lot of what they have is feeds from government or university data. Here's the specific page for Milton. You can see the products all there as you would at most compiled sites like TT.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... /al142024/
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#856 Postby boca » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:25 pm

The SE Florida region has no watches as of yet but I wonder at 5pm if they will add tropical storm watch ?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#857 Postby jasons2k » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:26 pm

SFLcane wrote:Image

Don’t just look at the end of those tracks, look at the beginning too. The 12z initialization looks like total junk. I’d toss this set.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#858 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#859 Postby LARanger » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:34 pm

fsucory08 wrote:
skillz305 wrote:The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here


Especially because it's really a timing thing. If Milton slows down on approach, would not have a lot of warning of an abrupt right turn. Just another thing to watch for. Wonder if the NHC shifts the track after landfall.


Post-landfall path prediction seems to have been a tad sketchy this year, so I would definitely be mindful of that.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#860 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:40 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:
most of them are just south, over Bradenton/Sarasota


So... right into the mouth of the bay? In terms of surge that might actually be worse.


Bradenton and Sarasota are south of Tampa Bay (the body of water), the winds would be offshore over the bay as a result (but still Cat 3 or worse) but surge would be alleviated.


Surge would definitely be lessened but not eliminated. This is going to push a bunch of water out ahead of it and some of that is going to stack into the bay no matter what. If the center makes landfall south of the bay, an easterly wind would still likely push quite a bit of water into the east side of St. Petersburg.
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