ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Large area of high STP east of the core.
Looks ominous for a tornado outbreak.
Could see some big ones.
Looks like NOLA could be in the crosshairs.

[Hurricane2022]

Final 968.3

[kevin]

First pass found 968.3 mbar with 29 kt winds, which theoretically supports an intensity of 965.4 mbar. Difficult to say since 29 kt is quite a high value for wind at the center. Using the 974.6 mb extrapolated pressure with 28 kt winds (-> 971.8 mbar) at 04:40z gives an intensification rate of about 1.6 mb/hr.

[GCANE]

Looks like shear taking a big bite out of her.
Doesn't mean tornadoes wont be a problem though.

[GCANE]

It looks like on IR there was some sort of hypersonic blast from the core.

[weeniepatrol]

[weeniepatrol]

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/wWXtTeQ.png

Much higher than the extrapolated pressure. I don't know how much of the difference I'd attribute to errors in the extrapolated pressure and how much to the difficulty to land a dropsonde in the pressure minimum. Recon already showed < 20 kt FL winds for a large portion in the center of the storm where extrapolated pressure ranges from 968 - 972 mbar.

[kevin]

Recon is finding a large portion of 60 - 65 kt FL winds far removed from the center. Francine is, in many aspects, a very atypical storm. Recon also shows an expanding wind field, the NE quadrant had TS-level FL winds (35/0.9 = 39+ kt) starting 110 nm from the center, while the last advisory only had an 80 nm R34 to the NE. The most recent recon update even found 66 kt FL winds 100 nm from the center. Very difficult to say to what extent these winds are mixing down to the surface.

[Nimbus]

Recon is finding a large portion of 60 - 65 kt FL winds far removed from the center. Francine is, in many aspects, a very atypical storm. Recon also shows an expanding wind field, the NE quadrant had TS-level FL winds (35/0.9 = 39+ kt) starting 110 nm from the center, while the last advisory only had an 80 nm R34 to the NE. The most recent recon update even found 66 kt FL winds 100 nm from the center. Very difficult to say to what extent these winds are mixing down to the surface.

Edit: the second recon plane now even found 79 kt FL winds 85 nm from the center .

There is still some dry air in the SE quadrant that kept Francine from becoming a major overnight.
Hope this continues and has some effect on the core before landfall but Francine has already reached the 960's.
Had some hope yesterday that a small system might leave the lights on in New Orleans but the wind field is expanding.

[xironman]

Big eye on radar. If that constricts could see a jump in wind speeds

[Nimbus]

Big eye on radar. If that constricts could see a jump in wind speeds

https://i.imgur.com/FJ5ZuGx.gif

The radar only gets the upper levels of the cloud motion at this range.
We may see a stadium effect later.

[xironman]

Oil Platform KGUL is in the eye
27.304 N 93.538 W

Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 0.0 kts
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 80.6 °F
Visibility Visibility (VIS): 2.2 nmi

[GCANE]

The trend for significant tornadoes seems to be improving.
Helicity, UL Jet, CAPE are all dropping.

[Frank P]

Latest radar loop

[Sciencerocks]

[Javlin]

Latest radar loop
https://i.ibb.co/gwPv6M1/mrms-null-gulf.gif

Looks to be moving more E but radars can be deceiving that far out.I noticed Frank the Hurricane models all shifted about .3' E from the 0Z to the 6Z about 18 miles just something to keep an eye on could put NO more play if it continues?

[Frank P]

Pressure 972mb

[Javlin]

The first true NE movement 5/5 it's always been one more click N over E just watching.

[Steve]

Not much happening yet. It’s cloudy, drizzly, winds out the east at10-15 and maybe 90% RH so saturated. Looking for the rains to start picking up in a few hours then the winds. Probably gonna be hitting until late this evening so there’s a fairly good chance at prolonged tropical storm conditions. All storms are different but some have similarities. We haven’t been hit by a system on this type of track in a while. I’m thinking Matthew October 2004 which we got about 6” of rain from. It was pretty short lived but the tracks were close. Like Zeta 2020, Francine shouldn’t have much of a back to it.

I think the city will be okay but I’m expecting no power by dinner time.