ATL: MILTON - Models

[FLLurker32]

Anyone have the 06z Euro beyond 72h?

Ihttps://i.imgur.com/1JaVoQB.gif

It actually looks like the 06Z Euro aims right for Tampa. Ugh.


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If this track were to verify it would be very similar to what we know of impact in 1859. 165 years ago. Long before this area was a major population center. It’s almost an unbelievable possibility.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This has a really good discussion on the models. I found it very informative


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=sc10BUZQk5s

[NDG]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1843287247086317862

SW FL still have bad memories of Ian and they don't trust the models yet.

[FLLurker32]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1843287247086317862

With Milton exceeding intensity timeframes in the past few hours I’m not as certain about the shift being real vs. a wobble based on models not being able to figure out the movement as it intensifies. NHC only shifted by 5 miles last time. It’ll be interesting to see how much faith they show in that south consensus nudge at 11am.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1843287247086317862

With Milton exceeding intensity timeframes in the past few hours I’m not as certain about the shift being real vs. a wobble based on models not being able to figure out the movement as it intensifies. NHC only shifted by 5 miles last time. It’ll be interesting to see how much faith they show in that south consensus nudge at 11am.

With the 06z Euro shifting north I doubt they will shift that much south as the consensus shows.

[SFLcane]

[FLLurker32]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1843287247086317862

With Milton exceeding intensity timeframes in the past few hours I’m not as certain about the shift being real vs. a wobble based on models not being able to figure out the movement as it intensifies. NHC only shifted by 5 miles last time. It’ll be interesting to see how much faith they show in that south consensus nudge at 11am.

With the 06z Euro shifting north I doubt they will shift that much south as the consensus shows.

I agree. Notably, the models that have been closer to actual intensity (Still understated) are more northern going just over Tampa Bay or to the north of the Bay. The consensus is being skewed by models that are having a harder time on the intensity forecast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843161388526748003

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Possible Bermuda landfall

[Full8s]

This has a really good discussion on the models. I found it very informative
https://youtu.be/sc10BUZQk5s?si=qdWhTOp9QYRIdR3k

Thanks for posting.
Great/insightful video, albeit a bit concerning for those of us north of Tampa in Pasco County.

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/b5JrVZg.png

Possible Bermuda landfall

Could we have a Fujiwara of Leslie and Milton around Bermuda or East of Bermuda?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

HAFS-A with a hurricane-force hybrid frontal system messy thing raking hurricane force winds across Bermuda as well:



HAFS-B slightly weaker but still brings TS winds to the island:

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

HWRF doesn't reach Bermuda until Saturday. Weaker, slower, and less frontal. I have Sunday plans so this is not ideal.

[Steve]

NAM 12km is useless this run. It hits around 977mb but as it's going on a trajectory that would take it slightly north of Tampa it jumps right at landfall and goes in south of where you think it would. Only thing I can see that would cause that is the east Canadian trough 's western periphery is exiting the same time Milton is making landfall. Could happen, but I'm disregarding the tropical aspects of this run.

NAM 3km is a trip. It only goes out to 60 hours, but in the last data point it shows 3 lows pop out to the north. It's having a brain freeze or something. However IR simulation is showing degrading heading close to landfall from what it was as it starts coming into range which is encouraging (but it's the NAM)

"Lows"
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

IR Sim
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

FV3 Hi-res comes in at about 967 21z Wednesday +/- the bay/Pinellas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=57

ICON is running now. Unfortunately it's initialized with 981mb when it's like 50mb deeper. So track might be good but intensity probably not.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://i.imgur.com/b5JrVZg.png

Possible Bermuda landfall

Could we have a Fujiwara of Leslie and Milton around Bermuda or East of Bermuda?

If it stays cyclonic. Most of the models show it merging with the frontal system (which has simultaneously sheared Leslie to death)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

06Z GFS has Bermuda in the... eye? Some gap in the wind field anyway.

[fsucory08]

Icon slightly slower through 36 hours

[LandoWill]

This has a really good discussion on the models. I found it very informative
https://youtu.be/sc10BUZQk5s?si=qdWhTOp9QYRIdR3k

The website they are using is http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products ... m=AL142024

[NDG]

Just a friendly reminder how off the TVCN consensus models was with Helene and also with Francine 60 hours before landfall and even at 24 hours before landfall.
That's the reason why I am putting more stock into the GFS, Euro and to some degree the ICON.

60 Hour forecast before landfall:


24 Hour forecast before landfall:

[Stormlover70]

06Z GFS has Bermuda in the... eye? Some gap in the wind field anyway.

https://i.imgur.com/zZrBwqT.png

let's concentrate on florida right now.