ATL: BERYL - Models

[LARanger]

Katrina Gustav Ida Isaac Aug 2016

Yo, trigger warning next time. (twitching)

As for the general thoughts on models and forecasts, two useful analogies are orbital mechanics and ballistics. Both involve extraordinary complexity where the slightest change in initial angle or speed tremendously change the position downrange. Unlike orbital mechanics, ballistics involves the atmosphere, but it can be pretty simply modeled for the purpose. Hurricanes, however, require input about the atmosphere across continental scales and in three dimensions, and intimate knowledge of their innards often requires crazy people in aircraft. Even with these vast inputs and limited knowledge, they still figure out to an increasingly good degree where the space probe will pass or the shell drop. That's just epic.

Be kind to the wizards.

[jaguars_22]

I said Seadrift tx but that may be too far north??

[ColdMiser123]

12z ICON looks like it's finally going to drop the upper TX coast landfall. It has shifted southward and also stronger through 84 hours compared to its 0z and 6z runs.

I'm beginning to think a final landfall with this storm will occur somewhere around Corpus Christi or maybe a little south of there. Could be closer to Brownsville though.

The only caveat is its 6 hour forecast for 18z shows a center position of 18.8N/83.9W - so the short-term motion doesn't seem right with this run.

That forecast point seems unlikely to verify, given that this is already north of 19.1N at 15z.

[Stormlover70]

If it impacts Texas hopefully she doesn't have anymore surprises in store. Stay safe all

[Stormlover70]

If it impacts Texas hopefully she doesn't have anymore surprises in store. Stay safe all. sorry duplicates

[Cpv17]

I said Seadrift tx but that may be too far north??

Seadrift is in the cone. I’d still consider it very much a possibility.

[jasons2k]

12z ICON looks like it's finally going to drop the upper TX coast landfall. It has shifted southward and also stronger through 84 hours compared to its 0z and 6z runs.

I'm beginning to think a final landfall with this storm will occur somewhere around Corpus Christi or maybe a little south of there. Could be closer to Brownsville though.

My prediction for the past 3 days now has been between Port Mansfield to Port Aransas.

My money is on Corpus. Texted F&F yesterday AM. Still looks good to me. It’s gonna be a close call because Beryl’s track will be arcing with the shape of the coast. A small change in trajectory will make a big difference in the final LF.

Lots of wobble watching to come.

[South Texas Storms]

12z ICON looks like it's finally going to drop the upper TX coast landfall. It has shifted southward and also stronger through 84 hours compared to its 0z and 6z runs.

I'm beginning to think a final landfall with this storm will occur somewhere around Corpus Christi or maybe a little south of there. Could be closer to Brownsville though.

The only caveat is its 6 hour forecast for 18z shows a center position of 18.8N/83.9W - so the short-term motion doesn't seem right with this run.

That forecast point seems unlikely to verify, given that this is already north of 19.1N at 15z.

It's ensemble mean is showing a final landfall even further south down the TX closer to Brownville while the operational run is near Matagorda Bay.

[ROCK]

12z ICON looks like it's finally going to drop the upper TX coast landfall. It has shifted southward and also stronger through 84 hours compared to its 0z and 6z runs.

I'm beginning to think a final landfall with this storm will occur somewhere around Corpus Christi or maybe a little south of there. Could be closer to Brownsville though.

My prediction for the past 3 days now has been between Port Mansfield to Port Aransas.

My money is on Corpus. Texted F&F yesterday AM. Still looks good to me. It’s gonna be a close call because Beryl’s track will be arcing with the shape of the coast. A small change in trajectory will make a big difference in the final LF.

Lots of wobble watching to come.

I agree...the last loaded frame of the ICON alludes to this. Its starts to arc away from the coast at 84hr. I also think it comes into the Yuc more south than before so B will need that WSW dip which I dont see happening. JMO of course


Lets be clear I am not an ICON hugger at ALL....more EURO- UKMET- GFS blend for me but for curiosity and to keep me engaged I am entertaining the model this time...

[tolakram]

ICON is being Harveyish with that curve once inland. No stall yet, at least.

I still think Corpus Christi is in the mix, even though NHC is still south of it.

The GFS, if you watch the vorticity plot, has a bogus area of vorticity behind Beryl and turning NE. Either this is real and the ICON doesn't see it, or this is part of Beryl and models might shift a little more north.

The euro has no north bend at all.

[HoustonFrog]

Definitely going to be clear winners and losers on this one

[underthwx]

If it impacts Texas hopefully she doesn't have anymore surprises in store. Stay safe all. sorry duplicates

Its cool tho....I like it twice!...

[cycloneye]

ICON is being Harveyish with that curve once inland. No stall yet, at least.

I still think Corpus Christi is in the mix, even though NHC is still south of it.

The GFS, if you watch the vorticity plot, has a bogus area of vorticity behind Beryl and turning NE. Either this is real and the ICON doesn't see it, or this is part of Beryl and models might shift a little more north.

The euro has no north bend at all.

That is the 96L entity.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET (for track, not strength, which is usually underdone): landfall ~90 miles S of TX border, which may be slightly further N than last run and is ~55 miles N of yesterday’s 12Z run

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.07.2024 0 18.6N 82.0W 981 70
0000UTC 05.07.2024 12 19.0N 85.4W 986 64
1200UTC 05.07.2024 24 19.2N 87.9W 997 37
0000UTC 06.07.2024 36 20.2N 90.5W 1002 44
1200UTC 06.07.2024 48 20.9N 92.6W 1000 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 60 22.1N 94.5W 998 44
1200UTC 07.07.2024 72 23.7N 95.9W 995 46
0000UTC 08.07.2024 84 24.3N 97.0W 993 42
1200UTC 08.07.2024 96 25.1N 97.8W 995 44
0000UTC 09.07.2024 108 26.5N 98.5W 997 30
1200UTC 09.07.2024 120 27.3N 99.2W 1003 23
0000UTC 10.07.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

[Stormgodess]

ICON is being Harveyish with that curve once inland. No stall yet, at least.

I still think Corpus Christi is in the mix, even though NHC is still south of it.

The GFS, if you watch the vorticity plot, has a bogus area of vorticity behind Beryl and turning NE. Either this is real and the ICON doesn't see it, or this is part of Beryl and models might shift a little more north.

The euro has no north bend at all.

What is the steering system for that curve once inland? And does it's effect change if she goes into the gulf further North than forecasted? Is there any possibility at all of her skirting the Texas/LA coast line?

[ROCK]

Why is the UK initializing at 18.6N lol…it’s already passed 19N and getting to close to 19.3…

[Cpv17]

Why is the UK initializing at 18.6N lol…it’s already passed 19N and getting to close to 19.3…

It actually appears to me that it’s already N of 19.3.

[jabman98]

ICON is being Harveyish with that curve once inland. No stall yet, at least.

I still think Corpus Christi is in the mix, even though NHC is still south of it.

I think Corpus-ish as well for landfall. Please, no stall. We're already getting a lot of rain forecast in the Houston area. No one needs another Harvey.

[LarryWx]

Why is the UK initializing at 18.6N lol…it’s already passed 19N and getting to close to 19.3…

Rock,
You need to compare to where Beryl was at 12Z (7AM CDT) rather than where it was at 10 AM CDT, when it was at 19.0N since it is a 12Z initialized run. Per NHC, she was at 18.7N at the 7AM CDT advisory. Thus, the 12Z UKMET did, indeed, initialize too far S but only by 0.1 of latitude (18.6N vs actual of 18.7N) (~7 miles) rather than 0.4 of latitude. So, that’s not what I would consider a bad initialization as initializations are often further off. But admittedly, with her already at 19.0N at 10AM CDT, the UKMET is now further off. So, I get your point, which is a good one.

[LarryWx]

Further to Rock’s good point about the 12Z UKMET:

The 12Z UK has Beryl already at 85.4W when at 19.0N at 7PM CDT today. But at 10AM CDT, the NHC was already up to 19.0N with her only to 82.6W. That means she was at 10AM CDT a whopping ~185 miles E of the 12Z UK 7PM position. That implies to me that the UKMET is likely going to verify too far S when it reaches the W GOM.