ATL: MILTON - Models

[BobHarlem]

HAFS-A: Landfall near Madeira Beach, slightly right/south of 0z. Exits into the Atlanic south of New Smyrna Beach.

[ronjon]

Not sure if it means much but the NAVGEM has shifted south the last 3 cycles. Oops. Corrected model times

Sunday 12z: crystal river landfall
Sunday 18z: Hernando beach landfall
Monday 00z: Bradenton landfall

[skillz305]

Not sure if it means much but the NAVGEM has shifted south the last 3 cycles.

Sunday 18z: crystal river landfall
Monday 00z: Hernando beach landfall
Monday 06z: Bradenton landfall

Do you have the 06z NAVGEM loop? I don’t see it on tropicaltidbits

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One thing that's catching my eye is the shear over Milton has been backing off at landfall on the GFS. Sounding shows ~25 knots (and increasing sharply). It was higher previously.

[Poonwalker]

Very concerning for Tampa. People are heeding the warnings though. Gas is gone and shelves empty. I suspect there will be a massive evacuation starting today and tomorrow.

[ronjon]

Not sure if it means much but the NAVGEM has shifted south the last 3 cycles.

Sunday 18z: crystal river landfall
Monday 00z: Hernando beach landfall
Monday 06z: Bradenton landfall

Do you have the 06z NAVGEM loop? I don’t see it on tropicaltidbits

06z not available yet. Sorry was off by one cycle. See my corrected post above.

[ronjon]

06z UKMET now stronger and landfalling near Sarasota-Venice. Moved north and stronger from Naples landfall at 00z.

[Poonwalker]

One thing that's catching my eye is the shear over Milton has been backing off at landfall on the GFS. Sounding shows ~25 knots (and increasing sharply). It was higher previously.

I remember reading an essay regarding intensity forecasting and the challenges presented by major hurricanes. They in essence create their own environment. I believe a lot of effort in the new modeling has tried to address that.

[xironman]

Shear continues to lessen near landfall. It used to be in the 50s now using 60 hours it is just getting to the mid 30s. I don't think the strong shear will have enough time to drive the dry air behind Milton into the circulation enough to knock it down significantly. LOL, heat content at 60 for hour 36, hello loop current.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 110 119 122 122 121 114 110 105 97 84 64 52 43 36 34 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 110 119 122 122 121 114 110 105 70 56 36 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 110 122 128 129 126 120 116 110 70 59 46 34 24 16 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 10 9 19 27 34 35 50 57 68 66 60 47 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 9 5 4 3 6 2 6 8 6 -3 -7 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 191 175 166 186 167 194 215 217 230 233 228 225 230 228 241 N/A N/A
SST (C) 31.1 31.0 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.7 30.2 30.3 29.7 28.7 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 172 172 173 165 149 136 138 131 135 136 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 2 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 61 60 57 56 47 46 50 53 48 40 33 34 32 37 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 27 28 29 34 36 36 33 28 25 20 13 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 80 86 91 101 101 85 86 75 84 45 40 -10 -19 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 19 26 35 15 -14 9 46 80 97 68 51 25 4 21 6 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -8 -16 -19 -13 -11 -13 1 4 -8 -34 -43 -58 -50 -59 -46 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 211 116 56 61 65 253 261 13 74 390 581 742 956 1231 1428 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.7 22.0 22.2 23.8 25.6 27.3 28.9 29.8 30.2 30.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 92.2 91.2 90.1 89.1 88.1 86.4 84.5 82.7 80.0 76.9 73.5 70.0 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 39 33 22 20 19 60 31 27 40 31 18 13 9 7 7 N/A N/A

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

HAFS-A: Landfall near Madeira Beach, slightly right/south of 0z. Exits into the Atlanic south of New Smyrna Beach.
https://i.imgur.com/mOYI4Ej.png

This would change Tampa forever.

[SFLcane]

New 12z TCVN consensus shifts south in "RED" nhc is "BLACK".

[Blown Away]

12z Early Suite… Slight shift S…

[SouthFLTropics]

I think (although I could be wrong) that the shift in the consensus may be due to the ensembles. It appears that many of the ensembles are more south than the operational models.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone have the 06z Euro beyond 72h?

[SconnieCane]

Shear continues to lessen near landfall. It used to be in the 50s now using 60 hours it is just getting to the mid 30s. I don't think the strong shear will have enough time to drive the dry air behind Milton into the circulation enough to knock it down significantly. LOL, heat content at 60 for hour 36, hello loop current.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 110 119 122 122 121 114 110 105 97 84 64 52 43 36 34 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 110 119 122 122 121 114 110 105 70 56 36 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 110 122 128 129 126 120 116 110 70 59 46 34 24 16 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 10 9 19 27 34 35 50 57 68 66 60 47 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 9 5 4 3 6 2 6 8 6 -3 -7 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 191 175 166 186 167 194 215 217 230 233 228 225 230 228 241 N/A N/A
SST (C) 31.1 31.0 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.7 30.2 30.3 29.7 28.7 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 172 172 173 165 149 136 138 131 135 136 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 2 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 61 60 57 56 47 46 50 53 48 40 33 34 32 37 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 27 28 29 34 36 36 33 28 25 20 13 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 80 86 91 101 101 85 86 75 84 45 40 -10 -19 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 19 26 35 15 -14 9 46 80 97 68 51 25 4 21 6 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -8 -16 -19 -13 -11 -13 1 4 -8 -34 -43 -58 -50 -59 -46 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 211 116 56 61 65 253 261 13 74 390 581 742 956 1231 1428 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.7 22.0 22.2 23.8 25.6 27.3 28.9 29.8 30.2 30.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 92.2 91.2 90.1 89.1 88.1 86.4 84.5 82.7 80.0 76.9 73.5 70.0 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 39 33 22 20 19 60 31 27 40 31 18 13 9 7 7 N/A N/A

Noted that on 06Z hurricane model runs; simulated IR looked "better" (worse for Florida) close to/at landfall compared to earlier runs. Still somewhat sheared and not nearly as impressive as peak, but still with some very intense core convection depicted (solid ring of sub -80 degrees C on the HAFS-A) and pressures remaining sub-950mb.

[NDG]

As if the UKMET is still making the TVCN consensus further south than if it would been out of the equation.
It would make a big difference for the Tampa metro area if it goes just south of Tampa Bay, over Tampa Bay or north of Tampa Bay.

[toad strangler]

Anyone have the 06z Euro beyond 72h?

6z Euro looks like it does into Tampa Bay

[NDG]

Anyone have the 06z Euro beyond 72h?

I

[crownweather]

Anyone have the 06z Euro beyond 72h?

I

It actually looks like the 06Z Euro aims right for Tampa. Ugh.


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[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1843287247086317862