ATL: BERYL - Models

[jlauderdal]

06z ICON has it near Houston for the 6th run in a row. Insane consistency. If it does verify, will be an epic coup.

And epic fail by nhc, they don't miss by that much, this is 2024.

[kevin]

06z hurricane models overview. Not sure whether the correlation is also causation, but the more northern Yucatan landfalls also have more northern Mexico/US landfalls.

HWRF = 970mb/82kt Yucatan landfall @20.1N, 974mb/73kt landfall at the US/Mexico border @25.7N
HMON = 981mb/78kt Yucatan landfall @20.2N, 981mb/61kt landfall in Texas @26.8N
HAFS-A = 977mb/65kt Yucatan landfall @19.8N, 981mb/70kt Mexico landfall @25.3N
HAFS-B = 979mb/74kt Yucatan landfall @19.9N, 989mb/56kt Mexico landfall @23.3N

[LarryWx]

06z hurricane models overview. Not sure whether the correlation is also causation, but the more northern Yucatan landfalls also have more northern Mexico/US landfalls.

HWRF = 970mb/82kt Yucatan landfall @20.1N, 974mb/73kt landfall at the US/Mexico border @25.7N
HMON = 981mb/78kt Yucatan landfall @20.2N, 981mb/61kt landfall in Texas @26.8N
HAFS-A = 977mb/65kt Yucatan landfall @19.8N, 981mb/70kt Mexico landfall @25.3N
HAFS-B = 979mb/74kt Yucatan landfall @19.9N, 989mb/56kt Mexico landfall @23.3N

This is a case of correlation and causation. For any run of any model I’ve analyzed so far, the further N the Yucatan landfall, the further N the W GOM landfall.

[tolakram]

ICON is not off by that much, all show the north turn, just inland. So it's wrong, I think, but not crazy.

[REDHurricane]

06z ICON has it near Houston for the 6th run in a row. Insane consistency. If it does verify, will be an epic coup.

And epic fail by nhc, they don't miss by that much, this is 2024.

All it would take for this to happen is Beryl re-strengthening a little bit faster and its track shifting a few miles more to the north than the current NHC forecast -- this setup appears to be much more complex and sensitive to minor changes in the atmosphere compared to Beryl's track through the eastern/central Caribbean the past few days, and given how Beryl has significantly outperformed the global models intensity-wise to this point I worry that the infamous cone could be giving people further up the Texas coast a false sense of confidence. Can't think of any specific examples off the top of my head right now, but I recall that ICON has been correct as an outlier at least a few times over the past several years, especially with these smaller systems and novel atmospheric setups

[jaguars_22]

I want to say the icon predicted Harvey blowing up and people were like no way dumb model! Even the meteorologists then were predicting tropical storm only for Texas… I will never let that go! In the gulf anything can happen! It don’t matter if your a s2k master. It happened! None of us predicted Harvey. None of us predicted beryl to reach almost 170 mph winds either

[Wampadawg]

06z ICON has it near Houston for the 6th run in a row. Insane consistency. If it does verify, will be an epic coup.

And epic fail by nhc, they don't miss by that much, this is 2024.

All it would take for this to happen is Beryl re-strengthening a little bit faster and its track shifting a few miles more to the north than the current NHC forecast -- this setup appears to be much more complex and sensitive to minor changes in the atmosphere compared to Beryl's track through the eastern/central Caribbean the past few days, and given how Beryl has significantly outperformed the global models intensity-wise to this point I worry that the infamous cone could be giving people further up the Texas coast a false sense of confidence. Can't think of any specific examples off the top of my head right now, but I recall that ICON has been correct as an outlier at least a few times over the past several years, especially with these smaller systems and novel atmospheric setups

Looks like it definitely could be a case of Zero to Hero ,smart money is not on the Icon but we will know shortly

[gbru]

06z ICON has it near Houston for the 6th run in a row. Insane consistency. If it does verify, will be an epic coup.

And epic fail by nhc, they don't miss by that much, this is 2024.

I've been wondering if stuff like this is going to increase as climate shifts due to an (not-yet-discovered) change in the "rules" of tropical system development and sustainment.

[kevin]

To me it really looks like Beryl is travelling along the northernmost point of the cone or perhaps even outside of it, but I don't know for sure due to its ragged structure. I'm very interested in the upcoming 24 hours, the GFS ensemble has a huge spread in terms of the Yucatan landfall let alone if you also include other models.

[jabman98]

I want to say the icon predicted Harvey blowing up and people were like no way dumb model! Even the meteorologists then were predicting tropical storm only for Texas… I will never let that go!

Yep, yep, yep.

The ICON is so determined to stick with that Galveston-ish landfall. It may be spectacularly wrong or it's picking up on something the others aren't.

[Tireman4]

I want to say the icon predicted Harvey blowing up and people were like no way dumb model! Even the meteorologists then were predicting tropical storm only for Texas… I will never let that go!

Yep, yep, yep.

The ICON is so determined to stick with that Galveston-ish landfall. It may be spectacularly wrong or it's picking up on something the others aren't.

It is either onto something or on something..if it is on something, it might be illegal. Lol.

[jaguars_22]

Tireman… I think it’s on something this time
Path may be close to verifying but you just never know…

[Stormgodess]

I want to say the icon predicted Harvey blowing up and people were like no way dumb model! Even the meteorologists then were predicting tropical storm only for Texas… I will never let that go! In the gulf anything can happen! It don’t matter if your a s2k master. It happened! None of us predicted Harvey. None of us predicted beryl to reach almost 170 mph winds either

I respect and appreciate everything the real pros do.

But...

After everyone went to sleep to Katrina being a TS, and no big deal, I watched live as it blew up into a Cat 5 in a matter of hours.

Thought I was WELL ahead of the curve on Gustav to find out 3 days before landfall that the closest room available was 8 hrs away

Though 80 miles from the coast where a Cat 3 landfall shouldn't be catastrophic by the time it reaches us... I watched as Ida destroyed our area.

Same 80 miles from coast when Cat 1 Isaac comes in at high tide preventing the area rivers from draining and needing to be rescued from flood waters at my home.

Then Aug 2016 comes and nothing with a name, only a simple summer storm dropped 43 INCHES of rain in less than 24 hrs on my house destroying 75% of the homes and 90% of the businesses in my parish.

After all that... I want to always know and attempt to prepare for the worst case scenario. I want to know all the REAL and even slight possibilities as soon as they can be picked up on. I've got too many people depending on me saying we need to stay or we need to go.

So I listen to the Pros, I obsessively watch all the maps and models, and read all the opinions of you guys.

[Teban54]

Another time when ICON was comically wrong was with Dorian: it still insisted on the storm slamming into FL when every other model already started showing a stall in Grand Bahama followed by a recurve north. So pick your poison.

[jaguars_22]

Model runs are like at bats in baseball… none of them are ever perfect! They fail more than anything but they do give us ideas and outcomes to work off of. Wxman and aric and you other guys who have been here a long time is why I’m here! You all help us out and we appreciate it

[jabman98]

It is either onto something or on something..if it is on something, it might be illegal. Lol.

lol.

[Stormgodess]

I want to say the icon predicted Harvey blowing up and people were like no way dumb model! Even the meteorologists then were predicting tropical storm only for Texas… I will never let that go!

Yep, yep, yep.

The ICON is so determined to stick with that Galveston-ish landfall. It may be spectacularly wrong or it's picking up on something the others aren't.

It is either onto something or on something..if it is on something, it might be illegal. Lol.

I've wondered in the past to what extent certain models are programmed to forecast current tracks based on the tracks previous storms have taken? Thus Harvey is part of the reason for ICONs Gaveston-ish landfall?

[Ian2401]

Yep, yep, yep.

The ICON is so determined to stick with that Galveston-ish landfall. It may be spectacularly wrong or it's picking up on something the others aren't.

It is either onto something or on something..if it is on something, it might be illegal. Lol.

I've wondered in the past to what extent certain models are programmed to forecast current tracks based on the tracks previous storms have taken? Thus Harvey is part of the reason for ICONs Gaveston-ish landfall?

they dont. purely numerical / physics-based

[South Texas Storms]

12z ICON looks like it's finally going to drop the upper TX coast landfall. It has shifted southward and also stronger through 84 hours compared to its 0z and 6z runs.

I'm beginning to think a final landfall with this storm will occur somewhere around Corpus Christi or maybe a little south of there. Could be closer to Brownsville though.

[Cpv17]

12z ICON looks like it's finally going to drop the upper TX coast landfall. It has shifted southward and also stronger through 84 hours compared to its 0z and 6z runs.

I'm beginning to think a final landfall with this storm will occur somewhere around Corpus Christi or maybe a little south of there. Could be closer to Brownsville though.

My prediction for the past 3 days now has been between Port Mansfield to Port Aransas.