ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Best track has it at 30kts now. If recon does find a surface circulation then this is a TD.

[tropicwatch]

Buoy 42058 northeast of Invest 97L reporting steady pressure drop. Now 1005.1mb.

[cycloneye]

West winds



Added new set with more west winds.

[Jr0d]

I am about to head to the grocery store to get ready here in Key West as Inam certain we will be in the cone with a 5pm advisory and this will cause excitement. I hope to beat the crowds to the store.

Hopefully the Hurricane models are wrong with intensity, while they are further east that the global models, it looks like the also initialized too far west...

Here we go again. I am ok with just another round of tropical storm conditions, which will be the 4th time this year.

Not ok with full hurricane conditions.

This week is one of the busiest weeks in Key West with the Offshore Power Boat World tour being here....if the hurricane models are correct with intensity and the global models are correct with track, I would say an evacuation order could be necessary.

Someone needs to tell this storm it's too late and too cool for a hurricane here.

[tropicwatch]

I think the HH might have found a center with a very distinctive wind shift.

[cycloneye]

I think the HH might have found a center with a very distinctive wind shift.

Indeed, but is broad.

[zhukm29]

Looks like this will be either TD18 or PTC18 during the next advisory per RAMMB. Looks like we have a center.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1853163158573293921

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea, at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC).

[fllawyer]

Since we just had DST end in the US, does this mean full advisories will now be at 4pm ET/10pm ET (and same for am)? Never seen anything other than the 5/11 cycle, which I assume is attributable to the normal punch of the season being (well) before daylight savings time changes.

[zhukm29]

Since we just had DST end in the US, does this mean full advisories will now be at 4pm ET/10pm ET (and same for am)? Never seen anything other than the 5/11 cycle, which I assume is attributable to the normal punch of the season being (well) before daylight savings time changes.

Yep, November advisories typically follow the 4/10 cycle since advisories are based off of UTC time, which doesn't change even though our clocks do. Full advisories are done at 3, 9, 15, and 21 UTC, and 21 UTC would now be 4 PM instead of 5 PM.

[Travorum]

Since we just had DST end in the US, does this mean full advisories will now be at 4pm ET/10pm ET (and same for am)? Never seen anything other than the 5/11 cycle, which I assume is attributable to the normal punch of the season being (well) before daylight savings time changes.

Yep, NHC full advisories come out at 03/09/15/21z which after daylight savings time ends is a 4:00/10:00 EST cycle.

[underthwx]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea, at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC).

Unfortunately not surprised as I mentioned yesterday, that PTC advisories may be possible, as I am sure all of us did, so now, what will be the intensity and track of 97L? This is the question that we all want answered. It's my hope that IF, this soon to be cyclone does indeed track towards our friends in Florida, or perhaps a bit more west along the north central gulf, that it will encounter cooler waters, and shear!!! I will not be surprised to see this designated as a Tropical Storm either tonight, or during the overnight hours.

[HurricaneBelle]

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

That's the peak, NHC calling for it to move NW and weaken in the Gulf.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1853182015757041754

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/pMeA03m.gif

Looks close to being a TS as it appears on this loop perhaps?

[underthwx]

Track and key messages are available on NHC website. The first cone has the cyclone tracking towards SE Louisiana as of the first advisory.

[wxman57]

I'm not buying a 50kt TS offshore SE LA. Models that take it there have it as a remnant low, if that. Lots of SW-WSW shear across central to northern Gulf. I don't think it could survive up there. Also, there's a very good MLC and strong convection around 76W. I think any center will form farther east under that convection.

[bob rulz]

I'm not buying this making it to the Gulf Coast either. I know climatology is a guide, not a rule, but how many storms have affected the Gulf Coast in November?