ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

Having said that I’m not ready to make a final call yet. I want to wait until Monday to see where the center is and how it’s coming up and take it from there.

[TomballEd]

Common theme with GFS and Euro ensembles, the stronger members get pulled E towards Louisiana, the weaker members make to Texas. As someone with no meteorological training, I'm not picking a landfall spot or strength before the center forms, but why I am worried about rain E of or even in MBY, I'm pretty sure W or even Central LA. I spent several years late 1990s and 2000 working in either Broussard or New Iberia, LA. My being there protected them from any hurricanes.

Remember, a Cat 1 or even Cat 2 into Vermillion Parish is neither official or final. But it is what I think.

[Sciencerocks]

[sphelps8681]

Winds at Ciudad Del Carmen are from the SSW 11 km/h.
So with the westerly wind component giving us a clue to the LLC location, I think the convection will build NE over the surface center.
If we get a strong burst of convection tonight it might tug the center a little further west though.
Models may take a while to catch up.

Would that do much to where the storm would make landfall? This is so interesting to me. Thank you for your time.

Two storm centers of equal strength dancing around each other would inhibit development but increase precipitation totals for a larger area, probably entire gulf coast east of Texas.

I am in SE Tx and I have a tree on my fence from my neighbors yard. Cut what I could but he is stalling on cutting it down on his side. Hope it goes way East.

[EasyTiger]

The Texas Low (formerly known as 90L), still has a well defined circulation and is building convection on the northeast side. The wave/low in the in BOC appears to have lost much of it's circulation and is running out of real estate. It almost seems like the analysis of this system is upside down with the dominant low being north

[Frank P]

The Texas Low (formerly known as 90L), still has a well defined circulation and is building convection on the east side. The wave/low in the in BOC appears to have lost much of it's circulation and is running out of real estate. It almost seems like the analysis of this system is upside down with the dominant low being north

I mean who knows, maybe 90L will continue to dive south, 91L washes out, then the old 90L bottoms out in the BoC and starts its northerly trek and strengthens and its renamed INVEST 90.5L hehe ... we are in uncharted waters... pun intended. Bottom line I usually stick with the NHC, and they are the best in the world, so if they say 91L will form a TD in the next day or so, I am going with the experts till proven wrong..

[underthwx]

The Texas Low (formerly known as 90L), still has a well defined circulation and is building convection on the northeast side. The wave/low in the in BOC appears to have lost much of it's circulation and is running out of real estate. It almost seems like the analysis of this system is upside down with the dominant low being north

I read nothing about that in the 8 pm NHC Outlook.....am I missing something?...I echo Frank Ps thoughts...

[EasyTiger]

I mean who knows, maybe 90L will continue to dive south, 91L washes out, then the old 90L bottoms out in the BoC and starts its northerly trek and strengthens and its renamed INVEST 90.5L hehe ... we are in uncharted waters... pun intended. Bottom line I usually stick with the NHC, and they are the best in the world, so if they say 91L will form a TD in the next day or so, I am going with the experts till proven wrong.

Not doubting the NHC forecast, but instead just viewing the system from a different perspective. The NHC may be as well, but it obviously doesn't make sense for them to put a red X at the top of the graphic pointing down as everyone would think the system is heading to Cozumel

[underthwx]

Will 91L be upgraded to a PTC?....what are the criteria for a designation to a potential tropical cyclone?....

[IcyTundra]

Will 91L be upgraded to a PTC?....what are the criteria for a designation to a potential tropical cyclone?....

They will designate 91L as a PTC if they need to issue watches/warnings. Storm surge/tropical storm watches are issued roughly 48 hours before the onset of hazardous conditions, so we will probably see a PTC Sunday night or Monday morning if I had to guess.

[Frank P]

I mean who knows, maybe 90L will continue to dive south, 91L washes out, then the old 90L bottoms out in the BoC and starts its northerly trek and strengthens and its renamed INVEST 90.5L hehe ... we are in uncharted waters... pun intended. Bottom line I usually stick with the NHC, and they are the best in the world, so if they say 91L will form a TD in the next day or so, I am going with the experts till proven wrong.

Not doubting the NHC forecast, but instead just viewing the system from a different perspective. The NHC may be as well, but it obviously doesn't make sense for them to put a red X at the top of the graphic pointing down as everyone would think the system is heading to Cozumel

not sure if I understand what you said, the X for INVEST 91L marks where the low is, then the red hatched area that goes well north into the GOM is the area in which a storm could develop, not where the storm will go... so basically the entire west side of the GOM down to the BOC could be the area in which a storms develops a LLC or TD upon which, after receiving RECON data, the NHC might issue a PTC advisory or more and then actually start their forecast track cone.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024090800, , BEST, 0, 191N, 924W, 20, 1003, LO

[Stratton23]

I think where the NHC has the “ center marked” that will fizzle out, a true center would likely reform further west under the convection, i just dont see that naked “ center” taking over

[EasyTiger]

I mean who knows, maybe 90L will continue to dive south, 91L washes out, then the old 90L bottoms out in the BoC and starts its northerly trek and strengthens and its renamed INVEST 90.5L hehe ... we are in uncharted waters... pun intended. Bottom line I usually stick with the NHC, and they are the best in the world, so if they say 91L will form a TD in the next day or so, I am going with the experts till proven wrong.

Not doubting the NHC forecast, but instead just viewing the system from a different perspective. The NHC may be as well, but it obviously doesn't make sense for them to put a red X at the top of the graphic pointing down as everyone would think the system is heading to Cozumel

not sure if I understand what you said, the X for INVEST 91L marks where the low is, then the red hatched area that goes well north into the GOM is the area in which a storm could develop, not where the storm will go... so basically the entire west side of the GOM down to the BOC could be the area in which a storms develops a LLC or TD upon which, after receiving RECON data, the NHC might issue a PTC advisory or more and then actually start their forecast track cone.

I guess we are more or less discussing semantics and totally understand what you're saying! The graphic would probably be better off without the "X", but obviously how they tag an invest. With that being said, the Hurricane models are run off the invest, when perhaps the low to the north may be the primary factor in development. It would be interesting to see storm specific models run on both "lows to see how they compare. Of course the global models do most of this, but there does seem to be a fairly good discrepancy between the GFS and HAFS. Sorry, slow day in college football

[Frank P]

I really didn't expect it to look like this tonight... compare that mess to where the L is marked on the best track history posted by Cycloneye.. go figure.

[Craters]

I really didn't expect it to look like this tonight... compare that mess to where the L is marked on the best track history posted by Cycloneye.. go figure.
https://i.ibb.co/wY595Wc/54454740.gif

Is there an anticyclone over each of the three areas of convection in that view? If so, what's that going to do to set up the upper-level winds over the western Gulf?

[underthwx]

Will 91L be upgraded to a PTC?....what are the criteria for a designation to a potential tropical cyclone?....

They will designate 91L as a PTC if they need to issue watches/warnings. Storm surge/tropical storm watches are issued roughly 48 hours before the onset of hazardous conditions, so we will probably see a PTC Sunday night or Monday morning if I had to guess.

thanks for your reply!.....and the information!...

[ROCK]

No true center to track IMO. Not calling any LF just yet. The former 90L looks better than where they have 91L attm.

[WaveBreaking]

Ik this is far from the center but that is some deep convection going on.

[Steve]

No true center to track IMO. Not calling any LF just yet. The former 90L looks better than where they have 91L attm.

Mating season haha