ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Storms moving up against a jet stream always track right of the forecast (Francine, Helene, Charley, etc). Consensus (green) and corrected consensus (gray) are now well south of NHC's track (maroon). Look for a gradual NHC track shift south of TPA. They may not do it this morning, but it's coming. Meanwhile, for those of you in Tampa, the SLOSH map below indicates what kind of surge you would see with NHC's current track. Over 18ft into NE Tampa Bay. You definitely want it going in to the south.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG



https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

[GCANE]

Dry air in the eye is nearly gone.
Just about completely saturated.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 6-1212.png

[psyclone]

I'm thinking a series of steady southward adjustments starting at 11 eventually aims this around Venice or Englewood...such a scenario could empty tampa bay and overflow Charlotte Harbor.. Plus everyone knows...when a cane is coming to tampa...get out of punta Gorda! I mean we will see how things unfold but that scenario just seems like a reasonable one

[GCANE]

Deep shear is 20 knts west to east.
If he starts moving a little faster, would see an improvement on development.

[BobHarlem]

I'm thinking a series of steady southward adjustments starting at 11 eventually aims this around Venice or Englewood...such a scenario could empty tampa bay and overflow Charlotte Harbor.. Plus everyone knows...when a cane is coming to tampa...get out of punta Gorda! I mean we will see how things unfold but that scenario just seems like a reasonable one

Im Not so sure on that. i think the 12z shift is more due to recon vortex best track reposition than any other real change. A lot rides on the south dip forecaat in the near term. I dont think much recon data will get into the models until 0z but 18z gfs may have some.

[GCANE]

Milton is currently 32 miles south of forecast track

[GCANE]

Big-ass hot tower firing off

[tronbunny]

Gov Ron Desantis briefing Sunday 9:45-10am
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1BdGYENyjZoGX

[GCANE]

Strong on 36.5 GHz. Could be the start of eyewall building

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 060805.png

[SFLcane]

Storms moving up against a jet stream always track right of the forecast (Francine, Helene, Charley, etc). Consensus (green) and corrected consensus (gray) are now well south of NHC's track (maroon). Look for a gradual NHC track shift south of TPA. They may not do it this morning, but it's coming. Meanwhile, for those of you in Tampa, the SLOSH map below indicates what kind of surge you would see with NHC's current track. Over 18ft into NE Tampa Bay. You definitely want it going in to the south.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

NHC is north of almost all the ensembles.

[GCANE]

Moderate ionospheric heating just coming up

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[jlauderdal]

Big-ass hot tower firing off

Michael Fischer just posted about that and he doesnt get impressed easily.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

985.9 mb
(~ 29.12 inHg)

[jlauderdal]

Storms moving up against a jet stream always track right of the forecast (Francine, Helene, Charley, etc). Consensus (green) and corrected consensus (gray) are now well south of NHC's track (maroon). Look for a gradual NHC track shift south of TPA. They may not do it this morning, but it's coming. Meanwhile, for those of you in Tampa, the SLOSH map below indicates what kind of surge you would see with NHC's current track. Over 18ft into NE Tampa Bay. You definitely want it going in to the south.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

NHC is north of almost all the ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/3xMVMWn3/IMG-9571.jpg

The ICON track as of now looks good, intensity and track make sense.

[Jr0d]

This is a really tough forecast, and it involves the Bay Area with a possible major.

What a nightmare for emergency preparations folks, and the residents flooded by Helene.

The barrier islands are still a mess. Everyone’s trash is on the curbs right now turning to mold and getting rained on. It’s a horrible situation about to get worse.

I remember being in Cocoa Beach in 2004, after Frances did some damage there and almost everyones front yard was full of trash and debris when Jeanne became a threat.

Brevard county did a great job of having crews almost 24/7 collecting trash and debris before Jeanne impacted us.

Hopefully they are doing that as we speak...but obviously the damage from Helene is much worse and I dont see how they will be able to fully pickup all the debris before Helene.

I think we all hope the storm stays south, despite seeing in a much bigger impact for those of us living in South and southwest Florida.

[jlauderdal]

This is a really tough forecast, and it involves the Bay Area with a possible major.

What a nightmare for emergency preparations folks, and the residents flooded by Helene.

The barrier islands are still a mess. Everyone’s trash is on the curbs right now turning to mold and getting rained on. It’s a horrible situation about to get worse.

I remember being in Cocoa Beach in 2004, after Frances did some damage there and almost everyones front yard was full of trash and debris when Jeanne became a threat.

Brevard county did a great job of having crews almost 24/7 collecting trash and debris before Jeanne impacted us.

Hopefully they are doing that as we speak...but obviously the damage from Helene is much worse and I dont see how they will be able to fully pickup all the debris before Helene.

I think we all hope the storm stays south, despite seeing in a much bigger impact for those of us living in South and southwest Florida.

100%, will gladly take whatever punch in sefl to give others a rest and south seems to be weaker so farther south the better at this point.

[GCANE]

On approach, any area north of forecast track will be prone to tornadoes.
This is due to the large shear.
UL winds will be west to east.
LL winds will be east to west.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

We have an eye.
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Oct. 6, 2024
14:02 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo

10/06 13:25 | 18 | 991mb | 54kts (55kts) | --
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:59Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Milton
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:25:41Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.55N 94.51W
B. Center Fix Location: 217 statute miles (348 km) to the E (85°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,026m (9,928ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 80° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 342° at 54kts (From the NNW at 62.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the WSW (256°) of center fix at 13:23:49Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 51kts (From the SSE at 58.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix at 13:34:39Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (125°) from the flight level center at 12:07:13Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:

[mantis83]

Big-ass hot tower firing off

Michael Fischer just posted about that and he doesnt get impressed easily.

good news for tampa if this keeps trending south, lets hope it trends weaker upon landfall too....

[syfr]

When I click on any of these links it takes me to this page:

This Connection Is Not Private
This website may be impersonating “wxman57.com” to steal your personal or financial information. You should go back to the previous page.

Has this happened to anyone else? I really want to see wxman’s images.

I get the same here.