ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vHjb85Gj/goes16-vis-09-L-202409231955.gif [/url]

The very broad exposed circulation @18.1N/82.2W per 5pm appears to be dissipating and likely the mid level circulation to the NE near the convection may take over. The models have been showing this bouncing around for next @24hours. JMHO

If the center relocated further east where I am seeing a possible MLC, that might really cause some concern for West Florida.

It certainly does seem like the broad swirl is dissipating convection is really start to wrap further east.

Even though I am not currently in the danger zone, I am still concerned and can't help but watch every satellite image coming in. I think it's time to take a break, let the models input the improved days and hopefully I don't wake up to a major surprise tomorrow.

Mentioned this in the models thread but I don't think we can really take a model seriously until we really know "WHERE" the center is. It may not seem like a big deal, but a one degree shift in the center might be the difference in Tampa Bay getting 60mph winds vs. 100+ mph winds. It's a game-changer.

One degree made a difference for us in Hurricane Andrew.....

One degree. Sixty miles.

Anyone on the west coast of FL needs to be watching this. It's going to be close.

[eastcoastFL]

Heard from family that it was over an hour wait for gas at Costco in Clearwater, so some people here in Pinellas are starting to take notice.

A statement on increasing awareness and a broke consumer. Waiting an hour to save 5 bucks is quite remarkable. I was wondering if finances might keep people under prepared as most are living week to week. Could be a huge challenge not seen in some time.

People waiting in long lines for cheap gas is a past-time in Florida . I filled up at BJ's yesterday and there is always a ridiculous line there but it's 35 cents per gallon cheaper than the other gas stations.

I also got water, which I think everyone probably should. Even if you're in South Florida there might be brief shortages post storm because trucks won't be able to head south from out of state for a little bit depending on how bad the storm is.

[Blown Away]

Ok, let’s look at climatology… Currently @18.3N/82.3W and per most models going WNW to @22N/87W (@300 miles) then NNE to @30N/84.5W… This is a bizarre track, I’m sorry… I predict 1 of 2 things happen, LLC reforms NE where convection is and much less W movement before turning NNE and landfall Tampa to south… Or models continue trending W in the next 48 hours and landfall is @Apalachicola to the West… JMHO

[StPeteMike]

Ok, let’s look at climatology… Currently @18.3N/82.3W and per most models going WNW to @22N/87W (@300 miles) then NNE to @30N/84.5W… This is a bizarre track, I’m sorry… I predict 1 of 2 things happen, LLC reforms NE where convection is and much less W movement before turning NNE and landfall Tampa to south… Or models continue trending W in the next 48 hours and landfall is @Apalachicola to the West… JMHO

Neither would be good for the Tampa Bay region.

[psyclone]

Ok, let’s look at climatology… Currently @18.3N/82.3W and per most models going WNW to @22N/87W (@300 miles) then NNE to @30N/84.5W… This is a bizarre track, I’m sorry… I predict 1 of 2 things happen, LLC reforms NE where convection is and much less W movement before turning NNE and landfall Tampa to south… Or models continue trending W in the next 48 hours and landfall is @Apalachicola to the West… JMHO

The "big bend is immune to hurricanes due to climo" argument is no longer valid. Ask the people in Perry. When it rains it pours. I'm reminded of the quote "hurricanes are like bananas they come in bunches"...

[Steve]

Heard from family that it was over an hour wait for gas at Costco in Clearwater, so some people here in Pinellas are starting to take notice.

A statement on increasing awareness and a broke consumer. Waiting an hour to save 5 bucks is quite remarkable. I was wondering if finances might keep people under prepared as most are living week to week. Could be a huge challenge not seen in some time.

Maybe. But I’ll throw you a plausible similar conclusion. More people who shop at Costco read storm2k and prepare earlier. Here I was Monday before Francine getting to Costco when it opened to stock up on Topo Chico and get gas. So I went to lunch early so I could get there for a little after 10. Gas lines were hit. But plenty of people were filling gas cans for generators besides their cars. So instead of just filling up or topping off the tank, there were often multiple things to fill. So after about 20 minutes waiting, I got gas and parked. Store was hit with people putting 7-8 cases of water on push flats. It was hard to get back to the water. I also needed to get to the grocery store for lunch. Passed a gas station down the road (not far) from Costco and there was one car there. Got to the grocery and it was a normal Monday am trip with no lines at all.

Anyway people here who pay attention have a major advantage over the general public. But most of us also use that gift to encourage friends and family to act and those we talk to on the street to act before it’s too late and inconvenient. We can’t fix stupid (eg they always turn at the last minute, I’ve been through this a million times, etc.). But we can at least help serve the common good.

[cheezyWXguy]

I am finding it harder and harder to see evidence of the exposed llc. Granted shortwave ir isn’t as good as visible, but the low level clouds that can be seen don’t really seem to be streaming into the location it was last seen. I think recon will find a center relocation underway

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2024092400, , BEST, 0, 182N, 821W, 30, 1002, DB

[Poonwalker]

Seems to be trying to relocate into the MLC area. That would put the movement nearly stationary if true.

[tiger_deF]

It’s hard to tell whether the potent MLC now is yet another sign of the unfavorable environment the disturbance is in now or whether it is potentially drilling down or aiding in a reformation farther east. Provided the center is near the NHC location it has truly been sheared extremely aggressively, as there is pretty much no convection of any kind there.

The MLC is spinning the most I’ve seen with this system so far and is displaced farther east and north than the hurricane models have been showing. Interesting to see the evolution over the next few hours

[DunedinDave]

I am finding it harder and harder to see evidence of the exposed llc. Granted shortwave ir isn’t as good as visible, but the low level clouds that can be seen don’t really seem to be streaming into the location it was last seen. I think recon will find a center relocation underway

I think the center is definitely reforming east. Looks due south of Caymans now closer to the thunderstorms. That old center is running away naked. Not sure if this will impact track but it should lead to quicker strengthening.

[Blown Away]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2024092400, , BEST, 0, 182N, 821W, 30, 1002, DB

INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

So yes, E adjustment from 5pm says moving center towards convection. This should result in less W movement in 00z models during next 36-48 hours.

[cycloneye]

We will know for sure how is the structure of the disturbance when plane goes in the overnight hours.

[Janie2006]

Maybe. But I’ll throw you a plausible similar conclusion. More people who shop at Costco read storm2k and prepare earlier. Here I was Monday before Francine getting to Costco when it opened to stock up on Topo Chico and get gas. So I went to lunch early so I could get there for a little after 10. Gas lines were hit. But plenty of people were filling gas cans for generators besides their cars. So instead of just filling up or topping off the tank, there were often multiple things to fill. So after about 20 minutes waiting, I got gas and parked. Store was hit with people putting 7-8 cases of water on push flats. It was hard to get back to the water. I also needed to get to the grocery store for lunch. Passed a gas station down the road (not far) from Costco and there was one car there. Got to the grocery and it was a normal Monday am trip with no lines at all.

Anyway people here who pay attention have a major advantage over the general public. But most of us also use that gift to encourage friends and family to act and those we talk to on the street to act before it’s too late and inconvenient. We can’t fix stupid (eg they always turn at the last minute, I’ve been through this a million times, etc.). But we can at least help serve the common good.

Unfortunately, many people (if not most) lack situational awareness or have an overconfidence based on ignorance. C’est la guerre.

Most of them will wake up tomorrow to a very rude surprise. And then let the insanity commence. Knowledge, foresight, and planning are always the keys.

[FLLurker32]

Ok, let’s look at climatology… Currently @18.3N/82.3W and per most models going WNW to @22N/87W (@300 miles) then NNE to @30N/84.5W… This is a bizarre track, I’m sorry… I predict 1 of 2 things happen, LLC reforms NE where convection is and much less W movement before turning NNE and landfall Tampa to south… Or models continue trending W in the next 48 hours and landfall is @Apalachicola to the West… JMHO

Many on this board use to say the same about the “rare” big bend landfall. Guessing everywhere else because it seemed so unlikely. Now we’ve had numerous in recent years.

[WaveBreaking]

Some deep convection stating to fire near the MLC/possible new LLC.

[Jr0d]

Not seeing any signs of the WNW motion that it was predicted to be going by now.

If this lack of a significant West component is still happening tomorrow, I will really have to get prepared quick here in Key West.

Im going to try to get to sleep early in case I wake up with an unpleasant surprise

[skillz305]

Gotta work at 6am. Kinda crazy end of the night to see the LLC possibly relocate eastward. God bless you all. Cya at 5am…

[Blown Away]

Ok, let’s look at climatology… Currently @18.3N/82.3W and per most models going WNW to @22N/87W (@300 miles) then NNE to @30N/84.5W… This is a bizarre track, I’m sorry… I predict 1 of 2 things happen, LLC reforms NE where convection is and much less W movement before turning NNE and landfall Tampa to south… Or models continue trending W in the next 48 hours and landfall is @Apalachicola to the West… JMHO

Many on this board use to say the same about the “rare” big bend landfall. Guessing everywhere else because it seemed so unlikely. Now we’ve had numerous in recent years.

Hurricanes occur somewhat frequently between Apalachicola to Cedar Key, aka Big Bend area, but a Major Hurricane is extremely rare! Idalia barely landfalled as a MH and the models showing Cat 4/5 into Big Bend will be a first in recorded history if it happens. So betting against that is a good bet IMO.

[eastcoastFL]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2024092400, , BEST, 0, 182N, 821W, 30, 1002, DB

Pressure keeps dropping so it's organizing.