ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1842891420861960470

[Pasmorade]

The 8am intermediate advisory as this at 991, still a 12hPa drop...

[CronkPSU]

NHC clearly trying to get everyone’s attention with the headlines in this intermediate advisory

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[xironman]

SE side rapidly filling in. Should look nice and symmetrical soon. Banding setting up

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton's a fairly small storm so the MSLP/wind relationship won't be as lopsided as Helene, for example. Expecting a hurricane by 5pm.

[NDG]

Finds stronger flight level winds in the SE quadrant but higher extrap pressure.

NOAA3 0114A MILTON HDOB 26 20241006
120500 2217N 09420W 8418 01516 0009 +188 +186 209040 043 /// /// 03
120530 2218N 09422W 8433 01499 0008 +185 +183 208042 043 /// /// 03
120600 2219N 09424W 8428 01503 0006 +182 +190 207043 044 /// /// 05
120630 2220N 09426W 8417 01507 9993 +189 +194 216048 051 /// /// 05
120700 2221N 09427W 8418 01501 9985 +191 +195 220053 055 /// /// 05
120730 2222N 09429W 8415 01499 9981 +192 +194 216054 055 /// /// 05
120800 2223N 09431W 8418 01487 9971 +195 +196 214052 054 /// /// 05
120830 2224N 09433W 8409 01489 9960 +197 +201 219051 054 /// /// 05
120900 2225N 09434W 8424 01467 9949 +200 +194 223044 048 /// /// 03
120930 2226N 09436W 8417 01463 9941 +204 +185 226038 043 /// /// 03
121000 2227N 09437W 8416 01460 9926 +217 +168 225040 040 /// /// 03
121030 2229N 09439W 8417 01448 9913 +220 +171 224036 039 /// /// 03
121100 2230N 09440W 8419 01439 9904 +219 +189 220025 032 /// /// 03
121130 2231N 09442W 8420 01432 9899 +217 +193 202012 021 /// /// 03
121200 2232N 09444W 8417 01438 9895 +223 +189 025002 007 /// /// 03
121230 2232N 09446W 8419 01433 9897 +220 +191 017016 019 /// /// 03
121300 2233N 09448W 8419 01442 9912 +211 +195 023023 025 /// /// 03
121330 2234N 09450W 8419 01451 9918 +218 +189 024027 030 /// /// 03
121400 2235N 09452W 8419 01459 9927 +217 +188 030033 035 /// /// 03
121430 2235N 09453W 8417 01473 9934 +227 +190 027036 037 /// /// 0

[StPeteMike]

SE side rapidly filling in. Should look nice and symmetrical soon. Banding setting up

https://i.imgur.com/X8JoJNo.gif

He’s definitely getting together to start intensification into hurricane status.

Today and tomorrow will be the days to really see how much he can strengthen. Hoping the dry air scenario plays out to limit intensification before landfall in Florida, but I have reasons to hold my breathe and believe it closer to Tuesday than today.

[syfr]

Thanks. I ordered that. I just realized I also have a standing window AC unit stored I can use.

One other suggestion: Since most generators have multiple outlets, use one cord to power the freezer and another to power the fridge to split the major loads between the two cords. The fans/lights can be plugged into either after that.

This just minimizes the resistive loss in each cable.

[Sanibel]

Hints of muscularity in pre-Dvorak but too early to tell...

This could be trouble if it pushes surge...

[johngaltfla]

Hints of muscularity in pre-Dvorak but too early to tell...

This could be trouble if it pushes surge...

Just when you and I thought Helene might be it, Mother Nature sends a reminder.

Hope you're okay down there Sanibel.

This looks like it's the Bay Area's turn this time.

[Jr0d]

I keep hearing people say a stronger storm will go north...this is not always true.

Hurricane Lenny was moving due east as a hurricane in 1999...it was the Caribbean sure, the predictions and modeling is much better now, but it is the only major storm that moved east and impacted land in my memory.

If I recall correctly, they expected Lenny to turn northeast but that didnt happen until it passed south of Hispaniola.

If anything a storm further south may not feel the shear or even dry air as early....

[underthwx]

SE side rapidly filling in. Should look nice and symmetrical soon. Banding setting up

https://i.imgur.com/X8JoJNo.gif

Yes....today Milton will take much better shape...and strength unfortunately......I feel sick about this situation....essentially affecting the whole state of Florida....on a better note...the weather post Milton will be much...much better.....yall be ready...take care of each other.....
Floridians are tough and resilient....yall stay safe.. ..

[Sanibel]

Hope you're okay down there Sanibel.

Thanks for asking...I moved back to New York state where I came from...My Ian-ripped house on Sanibel was ordered demolished by the HOA and is currently a sand flat...We got screwed by the insurance company...We had to sue them and won but it was a pyrric victory because the gains went to the lawyer thanks to new laws that benefit the insurance companies...They basically welshed on their contract and were backed by Tallahassee...

It is early enough in October that Milton might keep its strength...Not good for property sales...

Climatology makes more sense for NE...

[eastcoastFL]

I keep hearing people say a stronger storm will go north...this is not always true.

Hurricane Lenny was moving due east as a hurricane in 1999...it was the Caribbean sure, the predictions and modeling is much better now, but it is the only major storm that moved east and impacted land in my memory.

If I recall correctly, they expected Lenny to turn northeast but that didnt happen until it passed south of Hispaniola.

If anything a storm further south may not feel the shear or even dry air as early....

I don't think they're saying this as a general term. It's just that all the southern models are much weaker than the models that are or were showing a more northern landfall. Now that we are seeing a dip back to the south from some models the solutions so far are showing a weaker system.

[eastcoastFL]

Im not loving this whole pregame system that we are dealing with this morning only to deal with Milton later this week.

[skillz305]

Well… little shift south is the consensus

[psyclone]

I have thought all along this system ends up south of tampa bay but north of Ian...like around Sarasota county...that could be me looking for that Tampa bay escape...which I suspect we eventually figure out a way to snag.

[SFLcane]

Well… little shift south is the consensus

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

[johngaltfla]

I have thought all along this system ends up south of tampa bay but north of Ian...like around Sarasota county...that could be me looking for that Tampa bay escape...which I suspect we eventually figure out a way to snag.

Way, way too early to tell. A lot depends on intensification and when the shift to ENE then NE occurs.

[jasons2k]

This is a really tough forecast, and it involves the Bay Area with a possible major.

What a nightmare for emergency preparations folks, and the residents flooded by Helene.

The barrier islands are still a mess. Everyone’s trash is on the curbs right now turning to mold and getting rained on. It’s a horrible situation about to get worse.