ATL: MILTON - Models

[tolakram]

[Kazmit]

GFS has been consistently north of Tampa. Could either be a big win or a big fail. ICON shifted closer to it, but hardly a trend with just one model run.

[kevin]

Trend so far with the operational 12z models is back north. Let's see what the ensembles say. If they follow the operationals NHC could shift back north at 5pm.

[Cat5James]

So is Tampa Bay still in the clear? /sarcasm

[NDG]

Trust in the ICON just got real, will it be correct again with sniffing out the east/south shift early?

Do you trust the Euro jump north and stop solution?
https://i.imgur.com/FpLYKKi.gif

Or the ICON; stay well south but also weaker solution?
https://i.imgur.com/mLirR6a.gif

You spoke too soon before its 12z run.
ICON has been fairly inconsistent with Milton so far, IMO.

It’s not that different of a landfall position from 00z and 06 in the grand scheme. Of course it matters to people in sw fl and it matters that there are differences in intensity with landfall position. So I think those differences magnify what otherwise could seem insignificant. Obviously population has exploded down there the last couple of decades. Upper setup is similar last 3 runs. Only thing moderately different is the trough in eastern Canada is very slightly more north in the 12z run.

50+ miles further north from previous run makes a big difference.

[TampaWxLurker]

In the short-term, the models seem to agree on a track further south, closer to the north coast of Yucatan. After that...they wildly diverge.

[mantis83]

12z GFS north of Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/WSVWWu9.png

uh oh, south trends may have stopped, and slow ticks back north from here? not good for tampa if true!

[hurricaneCW]

GFS is alarming because despite a south track early on it still landfalls north of Tampa as a strong hurricane.

[USTropics]

It appears the southern adjustments are just pushing back landfall on the dynamic models for 12z so far (ICON/GFS). Here is the trend at 72 hours for the GFS:


While shear begins to increases around 72 hours, we can see above the dry air is walled off. I would expect slight weakening on approach to landfall, but this will mean very little to landfall location and surge given the increased movement speed (perhaps displacement of convection to the northern periphery):

[Steve]

You spoke too soon before its 12z run.
ICON has been fairly inconsistent with Milton so far, IMO.

It’s not that different of a landfall position from 00z and 06 in the grand scheme. Of course it matters to people in sw fl and it matters that there are differences in intensity with landfall position. So I think those differences magnify what otherwise could seem insignificant. Obviously population has exploded down there the last couple of decades. Upper setup is similar last 3 runs. Only thing moderately different is the trough in eastern Canada is very slightly more north in the 12z run.

50+ miles further north from previous run makes a big difference.

It’s past 3 days out on the runs so not that significant of a change.

[tolakram]

You spoke too soon before its 12z run.
ICON has been fairly inconsistent with Milton so far, IMO.

It’s not that different of a landfall position from 00z and 06 in the grand scheme. Of course it matters to people in sw fl and it matters that there are differences in intensity with landfall position. So I think those differences magnify what otherwise could seem insignificant. Obviously population has exploded down there the last couple of decades. Upper setup is similar last 3 runs. Only thing moderately different is the trough in eastern Canada is very slightly more north in the 12z run.

50+ miles further north from previous run makes a big difference.

Yes, it certainly does, but models are just not that accurate. People moving near the Florida coasts have to be prepared and ready to move at all times, I just don't see these 3 day predictions getting much more accurate in the short term. I'll repeat what I said above, this is where only slow official track adjustments really pays off.

[Kazmit]

Also the GFS's angle of attack is steeper than most models. It comes within 70 miles of the Yucatan and then heads straight NW to landfall at Cedar Key. The steeper angle means any slight deviations to the left/right will result in big differences in where it comes ashore.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One thing I've noticed is the GFS has consistently been showing a track that isn't so completely abnormal (i.e., heading of nearly 90 degrees on the compass) coming into Florida. It has a more traditional NW track, especially before landfall. However, I do feel that an Ian/Charley-esque situation could be unfolding that drives it south like the Euro was showing. Did the 12z get any recon data ingested into it?

[xironman]

It appears the southern adjustments are just pushing back landfall on the dynamic models for 12z so far (ICON/GFS). Here is the trend at 72 hours for the GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/tPqAAhW.gif

While shear begins to increases around 72 hours, we can see above the dry air is walled off. I would expect slight weakening on approach to landfall, but this will mean very little to landfall location and surge given the increased movement speed (perhaps displacement of convection to the northern periphery):
https://i.imgur.com/995vyjd.png

The GFS is all on its own walling out the dry air. I think it may be right because there could not be strong enough shear to penetrate such a intense system that quickly.

[Steve]

It’s not that different of a landfall position from 00z and 06 in the grand scheme. Of course it matters to people in sw fl and it matters that there are differences in intensity with landfall position. So I think those differences magnify what otherwise could seem insignificant. Obviously population has exploded down there the last couple of decades. Upper setup is similar last 3 runs. Only thing moderately different is the trough in eastern Canada is very slightly more north in the 12z run.

50+ miles further north from previous run makes a big difference.

Yes, it certainly does, but models are just not that accurate. People moving near the Florida coasts have to be prepared and ready to move at all times, I just don't see these 3 day predictions getting much more accurate in the short term. I'll repeat what I said above, this is where only slow official track adjustments really pays off.

https://hurricanescience.org/science/fo ... index.html

[xironman]

One thing I've noticed is the GFS has consistently been showing a track that isn't so completely abnormal (i.e., heading of nearly 90 degrees on the compass) coming into Florida. It has a more traditional NW track, especially before landfall. However, I do feel that an Ian/Charley-esque situation could be unfolding that drives it south like the Euro was showing. Did the 12z get any recon data ingested into it?

It initialized at 991 which is what recon showed

[SFLcane]

Not sure i by the sharp hook on the GFS..

12z CMC is into Naples

[caneman]

It appears the southern adjustments are just pushing back landfall on the dynamic models for 12z so far (ICON/GFS). Here is the trend at 72 hours for the GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/tPqAAhW.gif

While shear begins to increases around 72 hours, we can see above the dry air is walled off. I would expect slight weakening on approach to landfall, but this will mean very little to landfall location and surge given the increased movement speed (perhaps displacement of convection to the northern periphery):
https://i.imgur.com/995vyjd.png

The GFS is all on its own walling out the dry air. I think it may be right because there could not be strong enough shear to penetrate such a intense system that quickly.

Gfs was the spot on with Helene and not doing windshield wiper swings like Icon. I'm watching it closely

[Weathertracker96]

Are there any recon data in the 12z runs today?
While others went slightly north or North, it seems the CMC went due east into SW FL.

[Travorum]

The full 12z GFS run. As everyone has said, it dips further south while passing the Yucatan but takes a steeper angle of approach on the approach to Florida ending up around Crystal River. The concerning thing is it seems to have a second bout of strengthening at around 60 hours when conditions are supposed to be hostile.